tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-49480612405723213542024-02-06T23:19:50.630-05:00This Week in Statehouse Actioncfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.comBlogger109125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-11487661115156230282022-09-16T12:40:00.005-04:002022-09-16T14:05:16.914-04:00Don’t Call It A Comeback edition<p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">(Forgive me, for I have Substacked. This newsletter's new home is <a href="https://thisweekinstatehouseaction.substack.com/">here</a>.)</p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><br /></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">Hey.</p><p>I know it’s been a while.</p><p>I missed you!</p><p>But I’m back and honestly super excited to share my inaugural TWISA at <a href="https://couriernewsroom.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">COURIER Newsroom</a> with y’all! </p><ul><li><p>If you’re looking for old editions of this missive for some reason, they all live <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/tags/TWISA" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">here</a>. If you’re looking for even older editions, they live <a href="http://www.statehouseaction.com/2017/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">here</a>. If you’re looking for REAL old school editions … well, they live in my Sent folder, but I’ll forward them to you if you really want.</p></li></ul><p>Fair warning … The news isn’t any happier than it was way back <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/4/14/2091957/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Spring-Sting-edition" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">in April</a>.</p><p>With less than two months to go, we’re officially staring down the barrel of Election Day, and it’s actually extremely factual to say that, in this post-<em>Dobbs</em> world, the stakes in state legislative elections all across the country have never been higher.</p><ul><li><p>Notwithstanding Lindsey Graham’s epic own goal in <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/13/grahams-abortion-ban-senate-gop-00056423" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">unveiling a 15-week abortion ban</a> in the U.S. Senate, reproductive freedom–and the lack thereof–is now completely under state control.</p></li></ul><ul><li><p>And the abrupt loss of the abortion rights granted by <em>Roe v. Wade</em> has galvanized both progressive and women voters all across the country, making the previously predicted midterm GOP romp a far dimmer prospect for Republicans at every level of the ballot.</p></li></ul><ul><li><p>Democratic <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/07/06/democrats-roe-v-wade-fundraising" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">donations</a> and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democrats-spending-heavily-on-abortion-leading-up-to-midterm-elections/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">spending</a> are correspondingly <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/07/democratic-attorneys-general-roe-00055026" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">ramping up</a> to take <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/actblue-donations-record-second-quarter-fundraising/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">full advantage</a> of this swing in voter enthusiasm.</p></li></ul><p>So, time for a quick quiz. Or just a guessing game, no pressure.</p><p>How much money has the Democratic National Committee donated to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC), the party committee charged with electing Democrats to state legislatures and winning Democratic majorities that will protect reproductive freedom now that <em>Roe</em> has been overruled?</p><ul><li><p>$15 million? </p><ul><li><p>Nope, that’s how much <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-greenlights-15-million-infusion-democratic-campaign-committees-n1288562" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">the DNC has given to committees that work to elect Democratic U.S. Senators and House members</a>–$7.5 million to the DSCC, $7.5 million to the DCCC.</p></li></ul></li><li><p>$20 million?</p><ul><li><p>Nah, that’s how much <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/06/democratic-party-priority-save-governors-00014364" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">the DNC has invested in state party infrastructure</a>–most of which goes towards helping elect federal and statewide candidates (don’t get it twisted–governors, attorneys general, and secretaries of state are important, too!).</p><ul><li><p>In the vast majority of states, the caucus operations and campaign committees that support and elect legislators operate independently of state parties (partly because of legal constraints, partly because of tradition/old habits–the reasons are as varied as the 50 separate sets of campaign finance laws governing state-level elections).</p></li></ul></li></ul></li><li><p>$94 million?</p><ul><li><p>Sorry, that’s how much Kentucky Democrat <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/165243/amy-mcgrath-losing-democrats-senate-fundraising" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Amy McGrath raised in her bid to unseat Mitch McConnell in 2020</a>–only to lose to the GOP U.S. Senate Leader 38-58%.</p></li></ul></li></ul><p>Okay okay, enough with the guessing. </p><p>…but if you guessed a big fat load of nothing, congratulations! </p><p>It’s true; <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-shocking-amount-the-democratic-national-committee-has-given-to-state-campaign-arm-dlcc" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">the DNC has donated exactly $0 to the DLCC this cycle</a>.</p><ul><li><p>The DLCC itself is boasting record fundraising, but the committee continues to trail its GOP counterpart, the <a href="https://www.rslc.gop/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Republican State Leadership Committee</a>.</p></li></ul><ul><li><p>… although that’s admittedly comparing apples to Volvos; RSLC is an umbrella org that includes </p><ul><li><p>Republican Legislative Campaign Committee;</p></li><li><p>Republican Lieutenant Governors Association</p></li><li><p>Republican Secretaries of State Committee;</p></li><li><p>Ag America (no, not AG–<a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2014/01/republican-state-leadership-committee-split-102443" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">RAGA split off from the RSLC in 2014</a>), which works to elect GOP agriculture officials; and </p></li><li><p>the ironically named Judicial Fairness Initiative, which helps elect Republicans to state courts.</p></li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><p>Good news on that front, at least–JFI has long lacked a Democratic counterpart, but <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/09/dobbs-state-judicial-elections/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">DLCC is reportedly spending in judicial elections</a> for the first time ever this year.</p></li></ul><p>Meanwhile, while national committees and rich donors continue to give downballot elections short shrift, GOP-controlled state legislatures have wasted little time destroying reproductive freedom in states they control.</p><ul><li><p>In <strong>West Virginia</strong> (House: 22 D/78 R; Senate: 11 D/ 23 R), <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/09/13/west-virginia-abortion-ban/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Republican lawmakers passed a near-total abortion ban this week</a> that will go into effect as soon as GOP Gov. Jim Justice signs it.</p></li></ul><ul><li><p>The<strong> Indiana</strong> legislature (House: 31 D/ 69 R; Senate: 11 D/39 R) <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/09/13/west-virginia-abortion-ban/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">passed a near total abortion ban last month</a>; it went into effect this Thursday.</p></li></ul><ul><li><p>Republicans in <strong>South Carolina</strong> (House: 43 D/79 R; Senate: 16 D/29 R) got <em>this</em> close to passing a near-total abortion ban earlier this month–and likely still will, it’s a matter of working out some details–but were blocked by the threat of a filibuster.</p><ul><li><p>… from a Republican.</p><ul><li><p>Because <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/09/08/1121940025/south-carolina-senators-reject-a-near-total-abortion-ban" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">his daughters helped him realize</a> that he shouldn’t vote to make the state’s current six-week (before most folks even know they’re pregnant) abortion ban (which is currently <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/17/politics/south-carolina-abortion-ban-temporarily-blocked/index.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">blocked and under review by the state Supreme Court</a>) stricter “because women have rights, too.”</p></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><p><em>you don’t say</em></p><p>And all this is after GOP lawmakers in 13 states didn’t have to lift a finger to ban abortion after <em>Roe</em> was struck down.</p><ul><li><p><strong>Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah</strong>, and <strong>Wyoming</strong> <a href="https://www.guttmacher.org/article/2022/06/13-states-have-abortion-trigger-bans-heres-what-happens-when-roe-overturned#:~:text=Of%20those%2026%20states%2C%2013,Texas%2C%20Utah%2C%20and%20Wyoming." rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">all have “trigger laws” that functionally banned abortion</a> as soon as the U.S. Supreme Court eliminated it as a right.</p></li></ul><p>As an erudite consumer of this missive, surely I don’t have to tell you what else those 13 states have in common.</p><p><em>… but I will anyway</em></p><p>Those 13 states all have GOP-controlled legislatures.</p><p>And even with all the money in the world, that probably won’t change any time soon.</p><ul><li><p>Now that primaries are over and ballots are being printed, we know exactly who’s running for state legislative seats this year–and what party they’re from.</p></li></ul><ul><li><p>Thus, we also know how many folks are running for these seats with no opposition from the other party.</p></li></ul><ul><li><p>This is not to cast aspersions on anyone or any committee or any group–it’s simply the reality of a world where <a href="https://www.governing.com/now/redistricting-continues-to-hurt-competition-in-state-legislatures" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">another round of mostly GOP-controlled gerrymandering resulted in fewer competitive state legislatures</a>.</p><ul><li><p>In 22 state legislative chambers across 15 states (23 and 16 if you include Nebraska, which I don’t, because it’s ostensibly nonpartisan), <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Major_party_competition_in_state_legislative_elections,_2022?_wcsid=DBC7881AEC46E674E362080B97CC71ABBD8FB04B26B54784" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">we already know which party will control them</a>, no matter what happens on Election Day, because of the number of folks running unopposed.</p></li></ul></li><li><p>Republicans are guaranteed majority control of 19 chambers:</p><ul><li><p>Alabama House</p></li><li><p>Alabama Senate</p></li><li><p>Arkansas House</p></li><li><p>Arkansas Senate</p></li><li><p>Idaho House</p></li><li><p>Idaho Senate</p></li><li><p>Indiana Senate</p></li><li><p>Kentucky Senate</p></li><li><p>North Dakota House</p></li><li><p>North Dakota Senate</p></li><li><p>Ohio Senate</p></li><li><p>Oklahoma House</p></li><li><p>Oklahoma Senate</p></li><li><p>South Dakota Senate</p></li><li><p>Tennessee Senate</p></li><li><p>Utah Senate</p></li><li><p>West Virginia Senate</p></li><li><p>Wyoming House</p></li><li><p>Wyoming Senate</p></li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><p>Democrats are guaranteed majority control of … three.</p><ul><li><p>California Senate</p></li><li><p>Massachusetts House</p></li><li><p>Massachusetts Senate</p></li></ul></li></ul><p>Without a single vote cast!</p><p>But lawmakers aren’t the only things folks in some states can vote for.</p><p><em>Fun fact! </em>Twenty-five states have <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/States_with_initiative_or_referendum" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">ballot initiative and/or veto referendum</a> processes.</p><ul><li><p>It used to be 26, but then the Mississippi Supreme Court ruled in 2021 that <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Mississippi_Ballot_Measure_1,_Initiative_65_and_Alternative_65A,_Medical_Marijuana_Amendment_(2020)#Lawsuit" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">no petition can meet the state’s congressional district distribution requirement</a>, which stipulates that “signatures of the qualified electors from any congressional district shall not exceed one-fifth (1/5) of the total number of signatures required to qualify an initiative petition for placement upon the ballot.”</p></li></ul><ul><li><p>… which is literally impossible, since <a href="https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/apportionment-data-text.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Mississippi hasn’t had five congressional districts</a> since 2000.</p></li></ul><p><em>lol</em></p><ol><li><p>Anyway, abortion is literally <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/2022_abortion-related_ballot_measures?_wcsid=DBC7881AEC46E674E362080B97CC71ABAA7D15B6ED6BCD64" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">on the ballot in six states this year</a>–an all-time high!</p><ul><li><p>In<strong> Kansas</strong>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/2022-live-primary-election-race-results/2022/08/02/1115317596/kansas-voters-abortion-legal-reject-constitutional-amendment" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">voters already rejected an amendment</a> that would have abrogated any interpretation of the state constitution to establish a constitutional right to abortion.</p></li></ul></li><li><p>That leaves five states for November:</p><ul><li><p>In <strong>Kentucky</strong>, voters will <a href="https://wfpl.org/activists-organize-ahead-of-kentucky-constitutional-amendment-on-abortion/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">decide on a constitutional amendment similar</a> to Kansas’.</p></li><li><p>In <strong>Montana</strong>, voters will likely approve <a href="https://leg.mt.gov/bills/2021/billpdf/HB0167.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">a measure</a> that would classify a born-alive infant as "a legal person for all purposes under the laws of the state ... entitled to the protections of the laws, including the right to appropriate and reasonable medical care and treatment" and require infants that are born alive after an induced labor, a cesarean section, an attempted abortion, or another method to receive medical care.</p></li><li><p>In <strong>California, Michigan</strong>, and <strong>Vermont</strong>, voters will decide <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/2022_abortion-related_ballot_measures?_wcsid=DBC7881AEC46E674E362080B97CC71ABAA7D15B6ED6BCD64" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">whether to enshrine abortion rights in those states’ constitutions</a>.</p></li></ul></li></ol><p><em>Stay tuned!</em></p><p>Okay, I’m going to leave you with a bit of good news (... sorta) you might have missed a couple weeks back–but mostly just as a reminder of how incredibly important judicial races are (you know, the ones <a href="https://www.rslc.gop/what-we-do/state-courts" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Republicans have a whole party org</a> committed to funding?).</p><ul><li><p>In the back half of August, the <strong>North Carolina</strong> Supreme Court ruled that, because the state legislature was unconstitutionally (racially) gerrymandered, <a href="https://www.wral.com/the-north-carolina-supreme-court-on-friday-decided-to-send-a-case-back-to-a-lower-court-to-consider-further-to-what-extent-state/20424139/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Republican lawmakers maybe didn't actually have the power to approve amendments to the state constitution</a> and put them before voters.</p><ul><li><p>The decision, which the court's 4-3 Democratic majority issued along party lines, (mostly)n ends a four-year battle over these amendments–and over the authority of the gerrymandered North Carolina legislature.</p><ul><li><p>The majority’s reasoning: Lawmakers who won their seats through unconstitutional racial gerrymandering can’t turn around and submit constitutional amendments that would permanently disadvantage the same groups that were discriminated against in the racial gerrymandering process.</p></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><p><em>I mean, makes sense, yeah?</em></p><ul><li><p>You may recall that, in the long-ago time of 2017, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/6/9/1661006/-Voting-Rights-Roundup-Supreme-Court-strikes-down-North-Carolina-GOP-s-legislative-gerrymanders" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">28 legislative districts were struck down</a> after federal courts found they illegally discriminated against Black voters.</p></li></ul><p>But since when has that stopped Republicans from doing whatever they want? </p><ul><li><p>The GOP lawmakers who had been elected under those unconstitutional maps used their ill-gotten legislative gains to place their amendments on the ballot in 2018–one to require photo voter ID and another to cap any state income tax at 7%--which <a href="https://www.facingsouth.org/2022/08/nc-supreme-court-limits-power-racially-gerrymandered-legislature" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">likely wouldn't have been possible without the extra seats the GOP gained by gerrymandering Black voters</a>.</p><ul><li><p>Both amendments were ultimately approved, by the by.</p></li></ul></li></ul><ul><li><p>The court stopped short of granting the plaintiffs' requests to strike down the two amendments outright, instead returning the case to the trial court, though its framing of the dispute suggests the state courts will ultimately invalidate the amendments.</p><ul><li><p>Needless to say, Republicans both on and off the court were livid over the majority’s ruling.</p><ul><li><p>The <a href="https://appellate.nccourts.org/opinions/?c=1&pdf=41699" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">dissent hurled ferocious invectives</a> at the motives of the majority, and <a href="https://www.wral.com/the-north-carolina-supreme-court-on-friday-decided-to-send-a-case-back-to-a-lower-court-to-consider-further-to-what-extent-state/20424139/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">GOP lawmakers were Big Mad</a>. </p></li><li><p>GOP House Speaker Tim Moore decried the ruling as a "judicial coup" and <a href="https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article264680559.html" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">vowed to fight the decision</a>, including potentially appealing it to the U.S. Supreme Court.</p></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><p>But … he might not have to.</p><p>(<em>Hence the </em>… sorta<em> above</em>.)</p><ul><li><p>Republicans have the chance to functionally reverse this ruling at the ballot box in November, when <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina_Supreme_Court_elections,_2022" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">two Democratic seats on the state Supreme Court are up</a>.</p><ul><li><p>Democratic Justice Sam Ervin IV faces Republican attorney Trey Allen, while Court of Appeals Judge Lucy Inman is trying to hold onto an open Democratic seat against Republican Court of Appeals judge Richard Dietz.</p></li><li><p>If Republicans <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7/6/2108639/-Morning-Digest-State-supreme-court-races-will-be-central-battleground-in-fight-for-abortion-rights" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">win either of these two seats</a>, they’ll regain the court majority that they lost in 2016, paving the way for a reversal not only in this case but in many others—reversals that would threaten a multitude of rights protected over the past several years by that Democratic Supreme Court majority and Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto pen.</p></li></ul></li></ul><p><em>so many elections, so little time </em></p><p>Welp, that’s a wrap for my newsletter comeback!</p><p>I appreciate you hanging in.</p><p>I appreciate <em>you</em>.</p><p>So take good care of yourself, yeah?</p><p>You’re important, and we need you.</p>cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-60635959707746919012020-11-10T16:31:00.002-05:002020-11-10T16:31:43.156-05:00Now What? edition<p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Welp.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">That certainly wasn’t the election night Democrats were hoping for.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I mean sure, Donald Trump is on track to lose to Joe Biden. Which is good.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But down-ballot races were … more than disappointing.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Because Democrats at every level of government will suffer the consequences of GOP success at the ballot box in a year that ends in zero for the next decade.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">As an erudite reader of this missive, I know you understand that state legislative politics and elections aren’t as tidy and straightforward as their federal counterpart.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So let’s discuss what happened on Tuesday and what it means for [[waves hands]] everything.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">While results in some statehouses are still shaking out (yeah, I’m looking at you, Arizona), we already know that Republicans successfully defended their majorities in several key chambers.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Specifically,</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Iowa</strong> House</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Michigan</strong> House</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Minnesota</strong> Senate (not set in stone yet but looks likely Dems netted only one seat here)</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">North Carolina</strong> House</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">North Carolina</strong> Senate</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Pennsylvania</strong> House (also not set in stone but not looking great)</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Texas</strong> House </span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So what happened?</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Did disaffected Republicans take their ire at Trump out at the top of their ballots and then ticket-split to support GOPers further down?</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Should Democrats have worked harder to tie down-ballot Republicans to Trump?</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Were resources allocated poorly?</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I could drop a hot take here, but I respect you too much for that.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The truth is that we just don’t know yet.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">All of these things could be true. None of them could be true.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But here are two things that are 100% true:</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Democrats were vying to flip districts specifically gerrymandered to elect Republicans.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">While the disparity wasn’t as severe as in cycles past, Republicans out-raised Democrats and outspent them in several key chambers.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But let’s face it: Even if Democrats flip one or both chambers in Arizona, Election Day 2020 was a disappointment.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ya know what? I’ll take disappointment over a bloodbath.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Here’s a little perspective.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Election Day 2010 replaced Election Day 2000 as the most excruciating of my life, and even 2016 wasn’t savage enough to supplant it.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And 2020 certainly wasn’t.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">It’s an oft-forgotten fact that Democrats appeared to be sitting pretty before the 2010 elections.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">They held majorities in 60 chambers.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Republicans held just 36, and two were tied.</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But many of those majorities were extremely small.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Dems held several chambers by just a couple of seats.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But then the party collectively seemed to forget that redistricting was going to be happening in 2011.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Republicans, as we know, very much did <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">not</em> forget, and they outspent Democrats three-to-one to target a handful of flippable seats in key chambers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Indiana, and more.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">… lots more.</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Republicans flipped 21 chambers in 2010.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In 2020, they flipped … three.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Don’t get me wrong: A GOP trifecta in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">New Hampshire</strong> is a Bad Thing.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And this means Republicans get to re-gerrymander that state Senate (and the House, but with 400 seats, that chamber is always a bit of a crapshoot, honestly).</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But federally, this gives the GOP complete control over drawing a whole two congressional districts.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The bad news from Election 2020 isn’t what Republicans won.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">It’s what Republicans successfully defended.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I wrote <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/22/1988644/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Master-Debater-edition" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">previously in this space</a> about how the next round of redistricting could shake out for Democrats, depending on the level of success they had in flipping GOP-held chambers this week.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Before Nov. 3, Republicans had complete control over the drawing of anywhere from 37% to 45% of all congressional districts nationwide.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Democrats would control the drawing of just 10% to 11%.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The remaining districts would be drawn via redistricting commissions (with varying degrees of independence), compromises reached in states with divided governments, and/or the courts (when some of those divided governments inevitably deadlock).</span></li></ul></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Sure, this three- or four-to-one advantage would have been lousy—but not as bad as it was in 2011, when<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/18/1583215/-Gerrymandering-could-cost-Democrats-the-House-in-2016-Why-Because-it-probably-did-in-2012" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Republicans had a better than five-to-one advantage</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>in drawing congressional districts.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Okay, fast forward to, like, now.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Let's talk about <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/5/1992656/-The-2020-elections-were-a-disaster-for-a-decade-of-redistricting-further-securing-GOP-minority-rule" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">how the situation has changed</a>.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">… and no, it’s not good.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">We’re not even talking pre-election status quo here.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Things definitely got worse for Democrats in the next round of redistricting.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Which means winning a majority in the U.S. House is going to be even harder for Democrats over the course of the next decade.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Tuesday saw the GOP's redistricting edge<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>expand<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> from three- or four-to-one </span>to potentially four- or five-to-one.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Yes, Republicans may end up drawing five times as many districts as Democrats.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This puts Democrats on footing almost as lopsided as the aftermath of the 2010 elections, when Republicans<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/18/1583215/-Gerrymandering-could-cost-Democrats-the-House-in-2016-Why-Because-it-probably-did-in-2012" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">won the power to redraw five (and change) times as many House districts</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>as Democrats.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">You may recall that this huge advantage helped Republicans win the House in 2012<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/11/09/house-democrats-got-more-votes-than-house-republicans-yet-boehner-says-hes-got-a-mandate/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">despite the fact that Democratic candidates won more votes</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Similar situations played out<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>in several legislatures in key swing states<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qTxxrLQlnrEl9ocgwUM7EL4PasH-5lmyf7sttn2GSMg/edit#gid=235559234" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">multiple times over the last decade</a>.</span></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Tuesday’s election results create a grave risk of another decade of minority rule by the GOP both in Congress and in statehouses nationwide.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But there’s something else at play in the upcoming round of redistricting that wasn’t a factor in 2011.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Back then, many new maps in southern states were subject to the preclearance requirement of the Voting Rights Act.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">… a requirement the U.S. Supreme Court killed in <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Shelby County v. Holder</em> back in 2013.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This ruling also paved the way for a new wave of voter suppression laws, the repercussions of which we’re still dealing with as I type, as votes are still being counted in places like Georgia and Arizona.</span></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">My talented Daily Kos Elections colleagues <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/5/1992656/-The-2020-elections-were-a-disaster-for-a-decade-of-redistricting-further-securing-GOP-minority-rule" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">have assembled a super detailed breakdown</a> of how Tuesday’s results impact the next round of redistricting, but here are the crucial toplines:</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Why we still care what happens in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Arizona</strong> even though they have an Independent Redistricting Commission: </span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Governor: Republican (up in 2022)</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">House: Republican? (uncalled)</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Senate: Republican? (uncalled)</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Arizona<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/2/1873663/-If-redistricting-began-today-Republicans-would-dominate-A-state-by-state-guide#3" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">has had an independent redistricting commission</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>in place since 2000, but with the U.S. Supreme Court’s newly conservative configuration, the IRC is at a big of risk of <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/6/29/1776658/-Voting-Rights-Roundup-Five-reasons-why-Anthony-Kennedy-s-retirement-is-a-catastrophe-for-democracy" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">being struck down</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Republicans in the legislature have repeatedly sought to undermine the commission, so ending the GOP’s control of state government would help insulate and preserve it.</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">If Democrats are able to flip a legislative chamber, the state’s divided government would sort out the aftermath of a ruling or GOP action against the IRC.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Perhaps they’d reach a bipartisan compromise!</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">… more likely, though, is that new maps would be drawn by the courts, which tend to favor nonpartisan districts.</span></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Why we care what happens in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Michigan</strong> even though they have an independent redistricting commission:</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Governor: Democratic (up in 2022)</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">House: Republican hold</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Senate: Republican (up in 2022)</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In 2018, Michigan voters approved a ballot measure establishing a redistricting commission, stripping the legislature of its power to draw district maps for itself and for the U.S. House.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Republicans in the state <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/9/9/20850936/gerrymandering-michigan-commission-republican-legal-argument" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">have been assailing it from go</a>, and like Arizona’s commission, it’s at risk of being destroyed by the U.S. Supreme Court.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But even if it survives, litigation over the eventual maps the commission produces is likely, which is why it's critical that Democrats just<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/04/michigan-supreme-court-results/6158401002/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">gained a 4-3 majority on the state Supreme Court</a>.</span></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Minnesota</strong>:</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Governor: Democratic (up in 2022)</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">House: Democratic hold</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Senate: Republican hold(?—uncalled as of this writing)</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Democrats appear to have fallen just short in their bid to win trifecta control in Minnesota, though final tallies have yet to be announced.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The state currently has nonpartisan maps drawn by a court and is poised to again after 2020.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But racial segregation in the Minneapolis area creates a “geography penalty” that harms Democrats, which means even ostensibly nonpartisan maps<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/12/8/1604093/-Minnesota-s-2016-elections-show-both-the-promise-and-limits-of-nonpartisan-redistricting-reform" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">have the effect of functioning like GOP gerrymanders</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Case in point: Hillary Clinton and Democratic candidates won more votes statewide than Trump and Republicans in 2016 but failed to win a majority of seats in the state Senate.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">That<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/11/05/2020-demonstrates-power-limits-of-dfl-urban-dominance" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">seems to have happened to Senate Democrats again</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>this year.</span></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">New Hampshire</strong>:</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Governor: Republican hold</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">House: Republican flip</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Senate: Republican flip</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Yeah, didn’t think I’d be talking about this one.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">On Nov. 3, Republicans<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/us/election-state-house-legislature-governors.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">unexpectedly regained their gerrymandered majorities</a> to win full control over redistricting.</span></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">North Carolina</strong>:</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Governor: Democratic hold (but super irrelevant in this context)</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">House: Republican hold</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Senate: Republican hold</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Bonus! </em>Supreme Court: Democratic hold</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Battles over redistricting are set to continue after Republicans not only maintained their majorities, but also<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.wxii12.com/article/north-carolina-election-day-republican-wins/34577103#" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">unexpectedly gained seats</a>. And although Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper won reelection, it totally doesn’t matter: he’s<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/2/1873663/-If-redistricting-began-today-Republicans-would-dominate-A-state-by-state-guide#33" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>unable to veto most key redistricting bills</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But it gets worse!</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Republicans ousted at least one Democratic incumbent on the state Supreme Court and lead in two uncalled races where absentee and provisional ballots will decide whether Democrats majority stays at 6-1 or narrows to 5-2 (or even 4-3).</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This matters because state courts curtailed the GOP's gerrymanders last year.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But while those rulings curbed the GOP’s worst map-drawing excesses, they<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/story/2019/12/2/1903028/-Court-refuses-to-block-North-Carolina-GOP-s-new-House-gerrymander-in-a-setback-for-fair-elections" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">didn’t entirely eliminate the problem</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Further, state-level judicial review is not guaranteed to succeed again<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/10/19/21524177/supreme-court-voting-rights-pennsylvania-republican-boockvar-amy-coney-barrett" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">given the increasingly radical stances taken by the U.S. Supreme Court</a>.</span></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Pennsylvania</strong>:</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Governor: Democratic (up in 2022)</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">House: Republican (uncalled but likely) hold</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Senate: Republican (uncalled but likely) hold</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">While many mail ballots that lean heavily Democratic are yet to be counted, Democrats<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.pennlive.com/elections/2020/11/democrats-efforts-to-gain-majority-control-in-pa-house-or-senate-looking-doubtful.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">are unlikely to win either chamber</a> even if they win more votes statewide—which is precisely what happened<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/11/13/least-three-states-republicans-lost-popular-vote-won-house/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">in 2018</a> and 2012.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">While Pennsylvania's Supreme Court has a Democratic majority that issued a ruling<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/19/1742930/-Pennsylvania-Supreme-Court-implements-fair-congressional-map-after-striking-down-GOP-gerrymander" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">striking down the GOP's congressional gerrymander</a> in 2018, it may not get the chance to draw a fair map of its own, especially<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/story/2020/10/30/1991211/-Voting-Rights-Roundup-Key-2020-court-battles-take-shape-as-Supreme-Court-threat-to-mail-votes-looms" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">if the U.S. Supreme Court interferes</a>.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">However, Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf may block Republican legislators from passing an extreme congressional gerrymander.</span></li></ul></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Texas</strong>:</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Governor: Republican (up in 2022)</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">House: Republican hold</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Senate: Republican hold</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I mentioned <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/29/1990761/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-The-End-Is-The-Beginning-Is-The-End-edition" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">in this space last week</a> that Republicans were pumping tons of late cash into these state House races, and WOW did that effort pay off.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Texas is arguably the most important state for Republican congressional gerrymandering, and Democrats failed to make the big gains needed to flip the state House to break the GOP’s trifecta control of the state.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But wait, it gets worse!</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Democrats also failed to lay the groundwork for striking down gerrymanders later this decade after Republicans swept all four seats up this year to maintain their 9-0 state Supreme Court majority.</span></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Sigh.</span></em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">tl;dr— </span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This round of redistricting might not be as bad for Democrats as the last round, but it’s not shaping up to be much better.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And depending on SCOTUS interference, it could arguably be worse.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Okay, one more piece of lousy news before I remind you (… and myself) that last night wasn’t a total disaster.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Democrats <a href="https://www.ksn.com/news/your-local-election-hq/state-legislature-poised-to-become-more-conservative-after-election/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">failed to break the Republican supermajorities</a> in the <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Kansas</strong> House and Senate, leaving an increasingly conservative statehouse GOP with the power to override Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s vetoes.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But on to less terrible news!</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Democrats in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Wisconsin</strong> <a href="https://www.wbay.com/2020/11/05/wisconsin-democrats-beat-back-gop-supermajority-push/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">successfully defended against the GOP’s bid to win supermajorities</a> in both legislative chambers.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Wisconsin Republican lawmakers will continue to be awful, but at least they can’t override Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’ vetoes.</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Delaware</strong>, Democrats <a href="https://www.delawarepublic.org/post/democrats-secure-supermajority-state-senate-two-flips" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">won a Senate supermajority</a>, giving them supermajorities in both chambers.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Maine</strong>, Democrats d<a href="https://www.pressherald.com/2020/11/04/democrats-retain-control-of-the-maine-legislature/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">efeated the Senate GOP leader</a>, expanded their majority in the chamber, and defended their House majority.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And while Republican legislators in many states will now have to deal with newly elected <a href="https://apnews.com/article/b7f9693bb421723f12bba0499a4fadfe" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">QAnon believers in their caucuses</a>, Democrats celebrated a lot of positive firsts.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">David Ortiz in Colorado HD-36 will be that state’s <a href="https://victoryfund.org/david-ortiz-elected-as-colorados-first-out-bi-legislator/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">first out bisexual legislator</a>.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Iman Jodeh in Colorado HD-41 will be the state's <a href="https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/politics/new-state-house-representatives-include-colorados-1st-muslim-legislator-military-veteran" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">first Muslim lawmaker</a>.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Sarah McBride in Delaware SD-01 will be <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/04/politics/sarah-mcbride-delaware-state-senate/index.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">the country’s first transgender state senator</a>.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Shevrin Jones in Florida SD-35 will become the state’s <a href="https://www.metroweekly.com/2020/11/shevrin-jones-elected-floridas-first-openly-gay-state-senator/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">first LGBTQ state senator</a>.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Michele Rayner in Florida HD-70 will be the <a href="https://www.advocate.com/politics/2020/11/03/shevrin-jones-michele-rayner-make-lgbtq-election-history-florida" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">first Black LGBTQ woman in that state’s legislature</a>.</span></span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Kim Jackson in Georgia SD-41 will be the state’s <a href="https://thegavoice.com/news/kim-jackson-becomes-first-lgbtq-state-senator-in-georgia/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">first openly LGBTQ state senator</a>.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Stephanie Byers in Kansas HD-86 will become both the <a href="https://www.kwch.com/2020/11/04/kansas-makes-history-elects-first-transgender-legislator/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">first openly transgender member of the Kansas legislature</a> and the <a href="https://www.koamnewsnow.com/kansas-elects-first-trans-person-of-native-american-heritage-in-american-history/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">first Native American transgender legislator in the country</a>.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ricky Hurtado in North Carolina HD-63 is the <a href="https://www.fayobserver.com/story/news/2020/11/04/nc-general-assembly-stays-republican-controlled-house-and-senate/6091038002/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">first Latino Democrat elected to that state’s legislature</a>.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Jabari Brisport in New York SD-25 will become the state’s <a href="https://patch.com/new-york/bed-stuy/brisport-officially-wins-25th-senate-district-uncontested-race" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">first LGBTQ legislator of color</a>.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Mauree Turner in Oklahoma HD-88 will become <a href="https://www.koco.com/article/democrat-mauree-turner-becomes-first-muslim-elected-to-the-oklahoma-state-legislature/34578367#" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">the state’s first Muslim state legislator</a> and the nation’s <a href="https://oklahoman.com/article/5675468/oklahoma-elects-first-muslim-nonbinary-state-legislator" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">first nonbinary state legislator</a>.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Torrey Harris in Tennessee HD-90 will be the state’s <a href="https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/news/2020/11/03/tennessee-house-election-results-district-90-deberry-harris/3745216001/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">first openly LGBTQ state lawmaker</a>.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This list is in no way exhaustive—feel free to hit me up with other cool Democratic state legislative first you know of!</span></em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So, after a decade of trying to slog their way back to majorities in legislative chambers designed specifically to preserve GOP control, Democrats came up short in the most consequential election of the decade.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I’ve already discussed why this is bad for redistricting purposes, but it sucks for other important reasons, too.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Such as:</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Abortion rights are <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/03/930533103/how-an-abortion-fight-in-supreme-court-could-threaten-birth-control-too" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">under existential threat</a> by the new 6-3 conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Without a majority in the U.S. Senate, Democrats won’t be able to rebalance the court to counter the seats stolen by the GOP.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">If the new SCOTUS erodes or overturns Roe v. Wade, it will fall to states to protect women’s access to full reproductive healthcare and the right to obtain an abortion.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Are GOP-controlled legislatures going to safeguard that right?</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Not bloody likely.</span></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Or try this on for size:</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Fast forward to late January 2021. Joe Biden has just taken office.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Some of his first acts as president involve undoing Trump’s numerous terrible executive orders and replacing those regressive, racist, anti-environmental, anti-equality, etc. measures with his own—many reinstating EOs from the Obama era, others implementing his own forward-looking policies.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But wait!</span></em></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In statehouses across the country, Republican-controlled legislatures are just starting their sessions.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And one of their first orders of business is to do everything they can think of to stymie President Biden’s efforts to undo the damage wrought by Trump.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">They’ll pass laws specifically designed to thwart policies set forth in the EOs.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">They’ll command their state attorneys general to sue the Biden administration over policies they don’t like.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">They’ll blame him for governing challenges resulting from their own or Trump’s mismanagement of everything from the coronavirus pandemic to state budgets.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And then of course they’ll also draw legislative districts that preserve their own majorities and congressional districts that erode Democratic power.</span></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I have one wish for an incoming Biden administration:</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Don’t make Obama’s mistake of neglecting state legislative politics and elections.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The cost to Biden’s own policy priorities would be high.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The cost to the future of Biden’s party is much, much higher.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;">Read more <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/5/1991989/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Now-What-edition?_=2020-11-05T19:35:29.435-08:00" target="_blank">here</a>!</p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;">Sign up <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/campaigns/forms/dont-miss-a-single-statehouse-action-update" target="_blank">here</a>!</p>cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-58701277135955840612020-10-22T21:20:00.002-04:002020-10-22T21:20:36.382-04:00Master Debater edition<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" id="m_5100393941896710872backgroundTable" role="presentation" style="background-color: white; border-collapse: collapse; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small; height: 4905.56px; line-height: 13px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 748.889px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: Roboto, RobotoDraft, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; margin: 0px;" valign="top"><table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: 0px;"><tbody><tr><td align="center" style="border-collapse: collapse; margin: 0px;" valign="top"><big><table border="0" cellpadding="10" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><tbody><tr><td style="border-collapse: collapse; font-size: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 10px 10px 40px;" valign="top"><table border="0" cellpadding="10" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse;"><tbody><tr><td style="border-collapse: collapse; margin: 0px;" valign="top" width="600"><div style="line-height: 21.6px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><p style="margin: 1em 0px;"></p><p style="margin: 1em 0px;"><a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDCxDIu4OO3SBv2TLoLPFt2dpW8tU5NyT9FVzRpRSErzctkjEOFjSAcv6BRF6Urt0EZ0Knj4PSEyfSL1HYsxjXokytXd2Zsg6egnFOrlokMw-AyfKKW-V6TMofRC94J1jTxxTgTzPF1ievlSaHZRBh2ezH4a8axYTy0QnvTY8xIu67UaQG_A9Pn0o_LsheGANwdlNnxrL_-tBNEaVD-wsfK5aOLlkABPgQKUPdN5h0KpxE2LpVtSt-3HguIOdRqpyiQadlw3JWsRO81FJHypKHcoB7TAAvFoey-P1DGv14-DEv6tVgai-5_3WCJ5_PpKG1awAOHdIj4JGJnZnyY9F_D40EraDq_IwjR-KzvNWjXI-iGphRonOmYDHjodroU06awkoJItK1iTVVlf2gZtsSnmKRu_gK_vVwBP2O5HIkuht/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h5/s6iSQ993_QP16arHyUqTl7aqo83zfhmDqJ44Ffru4g0&source=gmail&ust=1603502217443000&usg=AFQjCNGx1l28WYHfojSQiuKCuuRcuih3dQ" href="https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDCxDIu4OO3SBv2TLoLPFt2dpW8tU5NyT9FVzRpRSErzctkjEOFjSAcv6BRF6Urt0EZ0Knj4PSEyfSL1HYsxjXokytXd2Zsg6egnFOrlokMw-AyfKKW-V6TMofRC94J1jTxxTgTzPF1ievlSaHZRBh2ezH4a8axYTy0QnvTY8xIu67UaQG_A9Pn0o_LsheGANwdlNnxrL_-tBNEaVD-wsfK5aOLlkABPgQKUPdN5h0KpxE2LpVtSt-3HguIOdRqpyiQadlw3JWsRO81FJHypKHcoB7TAAvFoey-P1DGv14-DEv6tVgai-5_3WCJ5_PpKG1awAOHdIj4JGJnZnyY9F_D40EraDq_IwjR-KzvNWjXI-iGphRonOmYDHjodroU06awkoJItK1iTVVlf2gZtsSnmKRu_gK_vVwBP2O5HIkuht/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h5/s6iSQ993_QP16arHyUqTl7aqo83zfhmDqJ44Ffru4g0" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Just over a week to go</a>.</p><p style="margin: 1em 0px;">And while campaigns all the way down the ballot are still breathlessly raising and spending money and doing every kind of (safe!) outreach to voters they can think of in the closing days of this election, more than 40 million Americans have already cast their ballots.</p><p style="margin: 1em 0px;">Nevertheless, two weeks from today, we’ll almost certainly still be waiting to learn which party will win majority control of key legislative chambers just in time for the 2021 round of redistricting.</p><p style="margin: 1em 0px;"><em>Sorry </em>[[ducks whatever you probably want to throw at me]]</p><p style="margin: 1em 0px;">Even in a … well, let’s just say “normal” year, dozens and dozens of state legislative races across the country are decided by 500 votes or fewer—sometimes <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDEXiHvNPv5IVd-GjSnGXZRrWfaUMwfS5cZo6jL1ClUYdJlnyYHU3MUYemqmfQq7aOM4IrSD6VVaOyAUR4Hs7ABplfg5dMiHPt8wyxoAICFRzbKjky3f0wJOpLkeSnNCJaJmt2aPzwoNL0-rMIa590K5CCA2vxA6ggmwyp2Nrh7EfRhcUYZQ1rFs6KZDHNaXAv7-oGV5phudJ6CAwHZ2iCI58j_TzWxtPe4gqShSgOxBp4GKW423cq3WCPxkAhFy-BO71m3sQHmEO-PDvCs9YDtA0Hy4IHD1Ma6v56OMvG4N8-aUxNaupw6hzUUSRmLxSrnuDPBUobEcqnbteqfyqwBjeMeDHkO0yQm1t-MPz8BUdqosuNE9Ilp8pofDLYRN8U7t9LwN3KGo27q_GgWkU1-xKdGmDDXBUr4lwnbgISo63alxLA-YtgqE7Tb0vHEkaJA/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h6/BmyyvBtrOuJ0Ou9p5asHIjt9Pu-NzTjPTIir_LtkfRw&source=gmail&ust=1603502217443000&usg=AFQjCNHFDRs_dqKBsqnCgi4O2XyIRq7oFA" href="https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDEXiHvNPv5IVd-GjSnGXZRrWfaUMwfS5cZo6jL1ClUYdJlnyYHU3MUYemqmfQq7aOM4IrSD6VVaOyAUR4Hs7ABplfg5dMiHPt8wyxoAICFRzbKjky3f0wJOpLkeSnNCJaJmt2aPzwoNL0-rMIa590K5CCA2vxA6ggmwyp2Nrh7EfRhcUYZQ1rFs6KZDHNaXAv7-oGV5phudJ6CAwHZ2iCI58j_TzWxtPe4gqShSgOxBp4GKW423cq3WCPxkAhFy-BO71m3sQHmEO-PDvCs9YDtA0Hy4IHD1Ma6v56OMvG4N8-aUxNaupw6hzUUSRmLxSrnuDPBUobEcqnbteqfyqwBjeMeDHkO0yQm1t-MPz8BUdqosuNE9Ilp8pofDLYRN8U7t9LwN3KGo27q_GgWkU1-xKdGmDDXBUr4lwnbgISo63alxLA-YtgqE7Tb0vHEkaJA/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h6/BmyyvBtrOuJ0Ou9p5asHIjt9Pu-NzTjPTIir_LtkfRw" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank"><em>far</em> fewer</a>. (Raise your hand if you remember <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDCxDIu4OO3SBv2TLoLPFt2dH_uj4Uo8GVJD9Nk28Kubos8Ezssv0RwcyP7G6mGa6IWY-5rOhOY3HqdIRmoJns1ZmZyShh70gGJXw9_1sSzGIfS8NdqjN94XxgnvxAu2KCvHX5cQ0lh3yCFNxO_Vbuo9d9jMQrlupYhnld_0sKN0fMod5VPeFwFmrI0meER5nBKHvSiCEEiJSmx7XMWr6TwoLQu9ud_gLXOFz8YH1ODm30ylReREaTkmH8h4dblPGt24GZM79j9dc3MNbifKOg091Mk01gg7o3fOIy5MWWtoJmAtNfp8W8jGCFQ0oBmQQFnWgRcRodGZ6V7s4n82UoT6t1w2uS_oRBI2V3bxoUngmwCZLnYtme3wKQlYgl3vcBCsY8VKxpjOrwXi0ZxtTXNUieNAlU_NgpLVD0QxhPrZRhxLYUb2XoDeArWMqWbXkZlosUn5yPhrFSTFHFhJGZeyI9LBk04pdY7wH6yZziz7d/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h7/gFEd1Ed79_AxFBAyxzucMdrugGo132wjphxb6mBNOKM&source=gmail&ust=1603502217443000&usg=AFQjCNFuKFQctTglWhDEFSkMXliXOLh3eg" href="https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDCxDIu4OO3SBv2TLoLPFt2dH_uj4Uo8GVJD9Nk28Kubos8Ezssv0RwcyP7G6mGa6IWY-5rOhOY3HqdIRmoJns1ZmZyShh70gGJXw9_1sSzGIfS8NdqjN94XxgnvxAu2KCvHX5cQ0lh3yCFNxO_Vbuo9d9jMQrlupYhnld_0sKN0fMod5VPeFwFmrI0meER5nBKHvSiCEEiJSmx7XMWr6TwoLQu9ud_gLXOFz8YH1ODm30ylReREaTkmH8h4dblPGt24GZM79j9dc3MNbifKOg091Mk01gg7o3fOIy5MWWtoJmAtNfp8W8jGCFQ0oBmQQFnWgRcRodGZ6V7s4n82UoT6t1w2uS_oRBI2V3bxoUngmwCZLnYtme3wKQlYgl3vcBCsY8VKxpjOrwXi0ZxtTXNUieNAlU_NgpLVD0QxhPrZRhxLYUb2XoDeArWMqWbXkZlosUn5yPhrFSTFHFhJGZeyI9LBk04pdY7wH6yZziz7d/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h7/gFEd1Ed79_AxFBAyxzucMdrugGo132wjphxb6mBNOKM" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">the 2017 debacle</a> that kept the GOP in control of the Virginia House of Delegates for an extra two years.)<br /></p><p style="margin: 1em 0px;">That means no early calls.</p><ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">Every vote will need to get counted before a winner is declared—including absentee/mail-in and provisional.<ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">And as I’ve <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDCxDIu4OO3SBv2TLoLPFt2cAVjuwhvIP3ytR1eQpagNXOs1O9sXRXR9G5T1i7fGa2A5dE1cDAamc-JyjlZ9g4fbwxOe32mNcKxcjm3cZW5e6O3TnQ34jpBjG3XNjOYdNFoxDuSSehyXGIPCuzFfod3gdBV3oCIAweWBKI6iA6JSyj1vdCYcoSjW1m4F4v2_rDs0TUFBwFIgERjWUw0sz16fJ7LOtXzdq_YWP34tXOyXB_LM3Nr1Ax3FxyykYfpf5uCxWB5j5t-qSPKvOOM8H-mCCQqZk40kNMGiQo1vAfwGonzWh8F_B1ZSIX_tj3FKWswqHF03Ckg9bLcnMbli3AaYypLImvL5Dpt2sCEuayvv8UKHvyjPb85RQDB7k98Djbzt9PWIoAJzFxBBNrFEMAc9Zdc3GOlHAcgTdYfFEbO8N/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h8/S8osYdMTGPlKaqEuyzqvZF37kyvkvZSg7xud3z6vURE&source=gmail&ust=1603502217443000&usg=AFQjCNFc0bGzMCQGdG42fN8wRCwdXndk8g" href="https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDCxDIu4OO3SBv2TLoLPFt2cAVjuwhvIP3ytR1eQpagNXOs1O9sXRXR9G5T1i7fGa2A5dE1cDAamc-JyjlZ9g4fbwxOe32mNcKxcjm3cZW5e6O3TnQ34jpBjG3XNjOYdNFoxDuSSehyXGIPCuzFfod3gdBV3oCIAweWBKI6iA6JSyj1vdCYcoSjW1m4F4v2_rDs0TUFBwFIgERjWUw0sz16fJ7LOtXzdq_YWP34tXOyXB_LM3Nr1Ax3FxyykYfpf5uCxWB5j5t-qSPKvOOM8H-mCCQqZk40kNMGiQo1vAfwGonzWh8F_B1ZSIX_tj3FKWswqHF03Ckg9bLcnMbli3AaYypLImvL5Dpt2sCEuayvv8UKHvyjPb85RQDB7k98Djbzt9PWIoAJzFxBBNrFEMAc9Zdc3GOlHAcgTdYfFEbO8N/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h8/S8osYdMTGPlKaqEuyzqvZF37kyvkvZSg7xud3z6vURE" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">pointed out in this space previously</a>, counting those ballots—with the removing from envelopes and unfolding and matching signatures and whatever other validation measures a particular state requires—takes way more time than counting votes cast in person.</li></ul></li><li style="margin-left: 15px;">Add to that all the legislative chambers that Republicans could lose majority control of by just a seat or two—<ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">Especially<ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;"><strong>Arizona</strong> House (Dems need to flip two for a majority)</li><li style="margin-left: 15px;"><strong>Arizona</strong> Senate (Dems need to flip three)</li><li style="margin-left: 15px;"><strong>Michigan</strong> House (Dems need to flip four)</li><li style="margin-left: 15px;"><strong>North Carolina</strong> House (flip six)</li><li style="margin-left: 15px;"><strong>North Carolina</strong> Senate (flip five)</li><li style="margin-left: 15px;"><strong>Pennsylvania</strong> House (flip nine)</li><li style="margin-left: 15px;"><strong>Texas</strong> House (flip nine)<ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">I’m exempting <strong>Minnesota</strong> Senate (flip two) from this list because I legitimately think it won’t be all that close.</li></ul></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><p style="margin: 1em 0px;">[[knocks on all the wood]]</p><ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">Also I’d add <strong>Iowa</strong> House (flip four)—especially in light of the fact that nine legislative races in the state <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDMtJS_Wr20PUTSsBsRtKT_HinjCFAMJbnXe7GbWrXDOb5iQvWTYhidAnuxITUzIXBs_bl65Ev2y_XEvB9HFgqTTmWEu1QBibvGw5XNDh9ZyXzwPAbEoWkLagzVltjN7UIB72Zs1C9cDwcH9bQLGs8GM8zwjQ1BF-vf0JHwlgQj-zSOdO3IzXo3UWGvgHERdPiLuFpeYqQUAROV9ZWrt9VZG42bGbAZ-Nn4Ta7ltsiLI06s4Gus7-LWyx4I1cLYplkQgiKy2EwbnoX17QT8MrIsiszsXxaK7h3JuyPSO-OJiomGubaNCbpU2iqQyS0SsDuz76rnYb8xVxMqx6jvLTs5BJUOWshZqN_fmnx0c9ncA84Y3Knsllv_0D5ycM9Ggt3Y1krMUOl32lrDxdns0KOUK1NfnlYu0zoRyHhwN6DCgR/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h9/FEEmrcNO1wrOA1359hUiO_mupuuRSwNSTW-hcsqqzps&source=gmail&ust=1603502217443000&usg=AFQjCNGbxFnHxSHB3zOx15-ZBqXyZ2AGzw" href="https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDMtJS_Wr20PUTSsBsRtKT_HinjCFAMJbnXe7GbWrXDOb5iQvWTYhidAnuxITUzIXBs_bl65Ev2y_XEvB9HFgqTTmWEu1QBibvGw5XNDh9ZyXzwPAbEoWkLagzVltjN7UIB72Zs1C9cDwcH9bQLGs8GM8zwjQ1BF-vf0JHwlgQj-zSOdO3IzXo3UWGvgHERdPiLuFpeYqQUAROV9ZWrt9VZG42bGbAZ-Nn4Ta7ltsiLI06s4Gus7-LWyx4I1cLYplkQgiKy2EwbnoX17QT8MrIsiszsXxaK7h3JuyPSO-OJiomGubaNCbpU2iqQyS0SsDuz76rnYb8xVxMqx6jvLTs5BJUOWshZqN_fmnx0c9ncA84Y3Knsllv_0D5ycM9Ggt3Y1krMUOl32lrDxdns0KOUK1NfnlYu0zoRyHhwN6DCgR/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h9/FEEmrcNO1wrOA1359hUiO_mupuuRSwNSTW-hcsqqzps" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">were decided by fewer than 500 votes</a> just two years ago.</li></ul><p style="margin: 1em 0px;">All told, 44 states are electing 5,875 state legislators on Nov. 3.</p><ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">We’ll know if a couple of those key chambers flipped (or didn’t) by the time we go to bed on election night (… okay maybe <em>you</em> don’t stay up until 4 a.m. for these things), but definitely not all.</li></ul><p style="margin: 1em 0px;">So hold on to your butts, folks.</p><p style="margin: 1em 0px;">But hold on to them patiently. Election week is going to be a journey.</p><p style="margin: 1em 0px;"><u><em>Clip ‘n’ Save</em></u>: Here’s a thing to bookmark for election night: A <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/CMxF4nARlf6wAFa1PSfv0skG8WwJM-kTMg1XVB3RtdeE0EOmraQUUCXFeKcNMwK1H_9XFzbKHDDrZ8fo9sfn5mpMmVmeQMU2NmfCfdQ3cYi2LocRY9nSNc0KVRLNsXLgxYZyL-E6mGhGU6IPWAk5GzMxlAqYb0DW70REemgGCj2f_mmy0hdXRLRPZAl0OpY7Ope4GyTe7GY2ucqswtvTy0esEAK1F5zttnsy0ZEZjF2OXAXrdSyrnBFScU8hyXQD9P_5tQh3sK08XAOaON2L3eEgQghaEA4JqCVeUUi8Ygz4ypDAlPAih5b2_uoWsalQljOn8yPZeAEGIQZngJut82PrlY1fQtV8KYhMLwJJmTPgZsqOhqDDNm7uVIwOwULc3VnM3TQYv0WlXeKQ6zGztDyBWhjDaYDzgAb8MyNh0k0/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h10/U5YUru9Z5_ji0XEAnMGkXzv44DIhK3bZ3_058U6gNcI&source=gmail&ust=1603502217443000&usg=AFQjCNF2wcr3EAECB8ryLchbvBugW-5ixQ" href="https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/CMxF4nARlf6wAFa1PSfv0skG8WwJM-kTMg1XVB3RtdeE0EOmraQUUCXFeKcNMwK1H_9XFzbKHDDrZ8fo9sfn5mpMmVmeQMU2NmfCfdQ3cYi2LocRY9nSNc0KVRLNsXLgxYZyL-E6mGhGU6IPWAk5GzMxlAqYb0DW70REemgGCj2f_mmy0hdXRLRPZAl0OpY7Ope4GyTe7GY2ucqswtvTy0esEAK1F5zttnsy0ZEZjF2OXAXrdSyrnBFScU8hyXQD9P_5tQh3sK08XAOaON2L3eEgQghaEA4JqCVeUUi8Ygz4ypDAlPAih5b2_uoWsalQljOn8yPZeAEGIQZngJut82PrlY1fQtV8KYhMLwJJmTPgZsqOhqDDNm7uVIwOwULc3VnM3TQYv0WlXeKQ6zGztDyBWhjDaYDzgAb8MyNh0k0/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h10/U5YUru9Z5_ji0XEAnMGkXzv44DIhK3bZ3_058U6gNcI" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">handy new spreadsheet</a> via my Daily Kos Elections colleagues that not only highlights the most flippable seats in the above chambers, but also includes the <strong>Kansas</strong> House and Senate, where Democrats could break Republicans’ veto-proof supermajorities (a constant vexation for Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly).</p><p style="margin: 1em 0px;">The reason I’ll definitely have the spreadsheet open on one of my monitors on election night?</p><ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">Even when you’re just looking to flip a handful of chambers, that’s still a lot of seats to keep track of winning and losing.<ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">In the above listed (excepting Kansas), that’s a total of 890 seats!</li><li style="margin-left: 15px;">Add Kansas and you’re trying to keep track of 1,055 separate races.</li></ul></li></ul><p style="margin: 1em 0px;">But in the end, majority control of these chambers comes down to just a handful of seats in each.</p><ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">This cheat sheet is a little on the over-inclusive side, but if there’s one lesson to take away from the Trump era, it’s that absolutely nothing is off the table. Anything can happen.</li></ul><p style="margin: 1em 0px;">So yeah. <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/CMxF4nARlf6wAFa1PSfv0skG8WwJM-kTMg1XVB3RtdeE0EOmraQUUCXFeKcNMwK1H_9XFzbKHDDrZ8fo9sfn5mpMmVmeQMU2NmfCfdQ3cYi2LocRY9nSNc0KVRLNsXLgaVl9I8BxiF6sj10WNFlu6GkOy0-hSYqSK9k5RK8CY8-v71hwygjWMH2YhKMMrkh7jG97YzwpEHavSQKXw1444nL-26PvdlYIQPLefOSV2AQw54OQ_De8_7qbJ9_qkRAzF5_sTxpUM-o2Yd8r2ESl1V-kCnfbMVlCoVrxZyKxc_U3uoz2HM7bjmWnlCSl2Dysp1lEz9y7RGP7Jp32hNvK71fCXYyMWpnPp2as5PXGiqKvEUmyzeA4yD2bqALR9sKZ4xljJeslCfmqGhf-XDpiq43tZDpsU5siY4Z8EDlartw/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h11/i40wFvl5hFWpPTr8R_mglQov3gL1lMXQlm_5s-nH_bk&source=gmail&ust=1603502217443000&usg=AFQjCNEWKDAFibKVisfdMmHZ2YNShV6ytw" href="https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/CMxF4nARlf6wAFa1PSfv0skG8WwJM-kTMg1XVB3RtdeE0EOmraQUUCXFeKcNMwK1H_9XFzbKHDDrZ8fo9sfn5mpMmVmeQMU2NmfCfdQ3cYi2LocRY9nSNc0KVRLNsXLgaVl9I8BxiF6sj10WNFlu6GkOy0-hSYqSK9k5RK8CY8-v71hwygjWMH2YhKMMrkh7jG97YzwpEHavSQKXw1444nL-26PvdlYIQPLefOSV2AQw54OQ_De8_7qbJ9_qkRAzF5_sTxpUM-o2Yd8r2ESl1V-kCnfbMVlCoVrxZyKxc_U3uoz2HM7bjmWnlCSl2Dysp1lEz9y7RGP7Jp32hNvK71fCXYyMWpnPp2as5PXGiqKvEUmyzeA4yD2bqALR9sKZ4xljJeslCfmqGhf-XDpiq43tZDpsU5siY4Z8EDlartw/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h11/i40wFvl5hFWpPTr8R_mglQov3gL1lMXQlm_5s-nH_bk" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Keep an eye on these</a>.</p><p style="margin: 1em 0px;"><u><em>Everything Is Terrible, part 894,331</em></u>: One of the key strengths of the candidates Democrats are running for state legislatures across the country is their diversity.</p><p style="margin: 1em 0px;">So of course some white people want to turn that into a liability.</p><ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">Over the weekend, three Black candidates (incumbent state Rep. Marshall Bullock, aspiring state representative Chokwe Pitchford, and county commission candidate Rayonte Bell) in <strong>Michigan</strong> were engaging in some safely socially distanced door-knocking when someone in the “overwhelmingly white” community of St. Joseph <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDF8HR7saAqgcROlhFe_CA1OfLKKYJNsAudztUY1xSalPYbzxq0sinHrzxetzgVKwWlZM4yxmuj8LLrB8ymq0q3YdpVwTnqJQcrcL-cFXfmRglUjg5-0vbrBrJl99mJRMHEMv4Y3I3pEfjZBN9ol4Kv8jDqAL8eJY0_9iVaHmcvbiQHXrlV_GTo4KN8PGL-izvXSOQIVQ40yHUQWkONQBRR1W0WRo8RamEBE7GM3Hgr9QF3zf3-obKIMpdRVwIqhlqY4szId2-z_cocGHgs91diCLpYdR4i0vDGPctdapslLg7bJtbOewjA7uG-5egjrFTes5g-MKIimlTOn2A84VY6i78Y6c17b0RyHnY84okWY7yFQjfE5n_CVRGmh25gqxXK2Fm72LSUkNFSsqPioahiLnkQjU33OjrKNg-V73p9F5Q-VnGAuI8VfeHsMX3MJDAw/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h12/ggZGBlpWwCW1liUineK82Wf_4U4TbEstivnhxf07_Pk&source=gmail&ust=1603502217444000&usg=AFQjCNGX8Ty2Sw-5ySuZPZp5JsCk_N8-Lg" href="https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDF8HR7saAqgcROlhFe_CA1OfLKKYJNsAudztUY1xSalPYbzxq0sinHrzxetzgVKwWlZM4yxmuj8LLrB8ymq0q3YdpVwTnqJQcrcL-cFXfmRglUjg5-0vbrBrJl99mJRMHEMv4Y3I3pEfjZBN9ol4Kv8jDqAL8eJY0_9iVaHmcvbiQHXrlV_GTo4KN8PGL-izvXSOQIVQ40yHUQWkONQBRR1W0WRo8RamEBE7GM3Hgr9QF3zf3-obKIMpdRVwIqhlqY4szId2-z_cocGHgs91diCLpYdR4i0vDGPctdapslLg7bJtbOewjA7uG-5egjrFTes5g-MKIimlTOn2A84VY6i78Y6c17b0RyHnY84okWY7yFQjfE5n_CVRGmh25gqxXK2Fm72LSUkNFSsqPioahiLnkQjU33OjrKNg-V73p9F5Q-VnGAuI8VfeHsMX3MJDAw/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h12/ggZGBlpWwCW1liUineK82Wf_4U4TbEstivnhxf07_Pk" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">called the police on the men</a>.<ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">The caller claimed that “three suspicious Black men” were “walking up to homes and peeking into windows,” which was not at all what these guys were doing—nor is that even remotely how one canvasses, COVID-19 or no COVID-19.<ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">Like all properly trained canvassers these days, they rang doorbells and then took several steps back from the doors to be at a safe distance when they (hopefully) spoke with the homes’ occupants.</li></ul></li><li style="margin-left: 15px;">Thankfully, the officers (one white and one Black) were “friendly and not intimidating,” according to the candidates.<ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">Pitchford (a <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDCxDIu4OO3SBv2TLoLPFt2fh8IVDIh5LIrMx7Ml3Lz8VfBj1Xf0kzebOlpo65ADHQh_Gk96WudyWlYrK31D7H9Da6D-1IQ-WZxQ2u05hLKdsl7a5GXd6Fs4GN-mH3tDsPeDEOhciI5xKmyAcjm7gYOgP70J0MWxN0szRMpBW0CYdxEJrjkqzG79nZ8ov5WGgmxcUsPZBFWFieRIDLYBe6PHQcxGMM2jH_w60lPWOy3mlXzH5VXP--BBnSjLaUCnHzcNkMhfJB6i91s6uXg08nfWgrB_A742po1AEVgu1j1S9zU4dIcqL6U8oFupeDFDhhZ2SafIVo5aBRrTJIOLKACU25mHbHmYIBJpce_5Uu7jzioQzycSIfZkqYqvXvl5wfsd8vKbBufcTBNxQeIKwnwUEGSwF-wvSPVyIbiFGyVT457EDk14o64RP6Tv8eWgqEaO_T7SQRR-VfR0Q5BRSfNs/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h13/2ppiFAZwjLJoL3ql6eK5mkJmXMrWaX3ev5bLGXfwEGc&source=gmail&ust=1603502217444000&usg=AFQjCNGVWb6TQ77MERRT1AO0vFvl43z1qQ" href="https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDCxDIu4OO3SBv2TLoLPFt2fh8IVDIh5LIrMx7Ml3Lz8VfBj1Xf0kzebOlpo65ADHQh_Gk96WudyWlYrK31D7H9Da6D-1IQ-WZxQ2u05hLKdsl7a5GXd6Fs4GN-mH3tDsPeDEOhciI5xKmyAcjm7gYOgP70J0MWxN0szRMpBW0CYdxEJrjkqzG79nZ8ov5WGgmxcUsPZBFWFieRIDLYBe6PHQcxGMM2jH_w60lPWOy3mlXzH5VXP--BBnSjLaUCnHzcNkMhfJB6i91s6uXg08nfWgrB_A742po1AEVgu1j1S9zU4dIcqL6U8oFupeDFDhhZ2SafIVo5aBRrTJIOLKACU25mHbHmYIBJpce_5Uu7jzioQzycSIfZkqYqvXvl5wfsd8vKbBufcTBNxQeIKwnwUEGSwF-wvSPVyIbiFGyVT457EDk14o64RP6Tv8eWgqEaO_T7SQRR-VfR0Q5BRSfNs/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h13/2ppiFAZwjLJoL3ql6eK5mkJmXMrWaX3ev5bLGXfwEGc" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Daily Kos endorsee</a>) is working to flip the historically Republican HD-79 as part of <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/wehEm_vu1NBVXOKYSqOxTOi34aJoCJC1EivM7Ih953zmBkzEGOQjzUHxifEtuQWYCglbpBnwc8nimoLT9k0QPYnAKoJo3PNIfFmSIcTsqb0buwzHWxvJtfBfkqH9cT81pPeMNMhj6U4-GIa5nwWBbr8-sNGn71nTtoOn7vvbGeXbCJGUJKVFirEHgwy1lh5gCU4e4_IBJwUe6kzm3FIVx25yFF-qVRL8xcSth9LIohyetlm-GHDTqDK4iKuJQbw3JIuX5BEiDrTbNsynyUSNLoRxVYo13rhsml84Bb54NlIiX2ThP2XQhsrLMOKWZ87tLkE6Kt31f35O1fmDJE0Rt98pZE2wVNcYf6xka9Eze9kRw3Y-Uik3ljePlICy1gME4S2uUpig7HLBgeLjYlADkQVvZSfC7I9ryFdzfFtsJZs/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h14/qxzfSgGuhvsJf9Qi2zj3TRSFh1oDnlsIZfT35RVMHvI&source=gmail&ust=1603502217444000&usg=AFQjCNHSw3g28acAcCa8-7dyBoUf-JNyJw" href="https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/wehEm_vu1NBVXOKYSqOxTOi34aJoCJC1EivM7Ih953zmBkzEGOQjzUHxifEtuQWYCglbpBnwc8nimoLT9k0QPYnAKoJo3PNIfFmSIcTsqb0buwzHWxvJtfBfkqH9cT81pPeMNMhj6U4-GIa5nwWBbr8-sNGn71nTtoOn7vvbGeXbCJGUJKVFirEHgwy1lh5gCU4e4_IBJwUe6kzm3FIVx25yFF-qVRL8xcSth9LIohyetlm-GHDTqDK4iKuJQbw3JIuX5BEiDrTbNsynyUSNLoRxVYo13rhsml84Bb54NlIiX2ThP2XQhsrLMOKWZ87tLkE6Kt31f35O1fmDJE0Rt98pZE2wVNcYf6xka9Eze9kRw3Y-Uik3ljePlICy1gME4S2uUpig7HLBgeLjYlADkQVvZSfC7I9ryFdzfFtsJZs/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h14/qxzfSgGuhvsJf9Qi2zj3TRSFh1oDnlsIZfT35RVMHvI" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Democrats’ larger effort</a> to win a majority in the Michigan House of Representatives.</li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><p style="margin: 1em 0px;"><u><em>The View From Up Here</em></u>: Obviously most folks’ focus right now is (and should be!) on winning ALL THE ELECTIONS on Nov. 3.</p><p style="margin: 1em 0px;">But when you’ve been doing state politics as long as I have, you take a longer view.</p><p style="margin: 1em 0px;">And when you remember chamber after chamber after chamber after chamber after chamber—21 total—flipping to Republican control on Nov. 2, 2010, you may end up, like me,</p><p style="margin: 1em 0px;">(<em>… okay you probably don’t want to end up like me</em>)</p><p style="margin: 1em 0px;">sharply focused on the implications of this year’s election results on a whole host of things in the long term.</p><ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">What does Democratic or divided control of various states mean for the next president?</li><li style="margin-left: 15px;">How will state legislatures be equipped to stymie—or take advantage of—rulings from a super-conservative U.S. Supreme Court?</li><li style="margin-left: 15px;">And—both most immediately and with implications for political power for the next ten years—<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDCxDIu4OO3SBv2TLoLPFt2dLIP4PAF6ES6JxS6nXNF79HmY3Po2HgcAy3KamW1e7WaY5Kd_M25LA42pREQNYD_D5uhHyAlwUP5WT3bkaEGzYj1LQAbZKW6EuwScP2wEWbObFUda3ozI6-zTFMpPL6au9Jb1ut1kZKDvRtSEtl5EzB0T7oHYm6JVDiD54o24mSQp6-Idlp0wOp2BG3-WvW8-CjqlLIkcv0cmfnPxoEgx5VCnj7uexx8t80vmSQeTdtMy8CsIfEhGLBI6j2kwLqk1IBJgp22j4YttXTYpesOGiRpTD2inLk8AS3rW8o1X47mhf-gKSgffraq3M5dbTx7lkVUWxkfCvdGsDB9tweeLWVVRlkqXHbRd1p2gt0Mmdb-8Bj3_jp4tefJ7ZNxBqFMAypYSHqB7xdhXETvQyg8SJS8GRJ9RzTL7RI2FArDjyWA/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h15/_O6O06ZyN3tZH85-EKnzkVP-K0gBezA7bdWG1V2a75g&source=gmail&ust=1603502217444000&usg=AFQjCNHjGRH9hbfYEK06Os3ootjJqm-j7A" href="https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDCxDIu4OO3SBv2TLoLPFt2dLIP4PAF6ES6JxS6nXNF79HmY3Po2HgcAy3KamW1e7WaY5Kd_M25LA42pREQNYD_D5uhHyAlwUP5WT3bkaEGzYj1LQAbZKW6EuwScP2wEWbObFUda3ozI6-zTFMpPL6au9Jb1ut1kZKDvRtSEtl5EzB0T7oHYm6JVDiD54o24mSQp6-Idlp0wOp2BG3-WvW8-CjqlLIkcv0cmfnPxoEgx5VCnj7uexx8t80vmSQeTdtMy8CsIfEhGLBI6j2kwLqk1IBJgp22j4YttXTYpesOGiRpTD2inLk8AS3rW8o1X47mhf-gKSgffraq3M5dbTx7lkVUWxkfCvdGsDB9tweeLWVVRlkqXHbRd1p2gt0Mmdb-8Bj3_jp4tefJ7ZNxBqFMAypYSHqB7xdhXETvQyg8SJS8GRJ9RzTL7RI2FArDjyWA/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h15/_O6O06ZyN3tZH85-EKnzkVP-K0gBezA7bdWG1V2a75g" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">what about the next round of redistricting</a>?</li></ul><p style="margin: 1em 0px;"><em>Glad you asked!</em></p><ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">As things stand now, right now, as you’re reading this (providing you’ve gotten around to it before Election Day), Republicans have complete control over the drawing of anywhere form 37% to 45% of all congressional districts nationwide.<ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">Democrats would control the drawing of just 10% to 11%.<ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">The remaining districts would be drawn via redistricting commissions (with varying degrees of independence), compromises reached in states with divided governments, and/or the courts (when some of those divided governments inevitably deadlock).</li></ul></li></ul></li><li style="margin-left: 15px;">Sure, this three- or four-to-one advantage is bad, but it’s not as bad as it was in 2011, when <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDCxDIu4OO3SBv2TLoLPFt2dIKVyM1jWeQd7b_rhZKF2y4ASC0qzuki29SZRD3u-myWN09J0IDFQHX0xK3pNrtT8dRE3xGmVvMir8SjbWF2KaswSynltzW_iW6D45pt7UTZAksrGP53Cv_CrM7DtqzPlYEyMVwLuu6mYOacYDMG6u6aQ5Be8Tn9Q8ZKFstGCuc4NBP4EyIo-qYQiF-fmMSktJos81xF2mAssbWLU2XRrYjzXdHqgPzWRjq6PnJRjACrPke07gtC6FXOFzl-vBatcLg_0SZDVofVsXUpqyRLhs8ROqhZ5XnTemx3uSF6xq6lOkq-UmrXAS2A0u6kzg40l-UikjToruvpqUJwXZGEKwb2gl50cVJ1ypXqSZSc6SdWxAQR3rwuTgJ2H7bmAMQCx1ulubnrkn5xl0YQQhmwG8rzXLcJrxC2DwHZhGe_76mO_ZJp68T_Mp8T8N2DeC7fQ/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h16/kpV5yg2rSrQ7Np2OEDAHSwCUMPTTlabfUC9Z18XRZns&source=gmail&ust=1603502217444000&usg=AFQjCNEpO6dEG8WwXMzrywYNe-rewzqtHA" href="https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDCxDIu4OO3SBv2TLoLPFt2dIKVyM1jWeQd7b_rhZKF2y4ASC0qzuki29SZRD3u-myWN09J0IDFQHX0xK3pNrtT8dRE3xGmVvMir8SjbWF2KaswSynltzW_iW6D45pt7UTZAksrGP53Cv_CrM7DtqzPlYEyMVwLuu6mYOacYDMG6u6aQ5Be8Tn9Q8ZKFstGCuc4NBP4EyIo-qYQiF-fmMSktJos81xF2mAssbWLU2XRrYjzXdHqgPzWRjq6PnJRjACrPke07gtC6FXOFzl-vBatcLg_0SZDVofVsXUpqyRLhs8ROqhZ5XnTemx3uSF6xq6lOkq-UmrXAS2A0u6kzg40l-UikjToruvpqUJwXZGEKwb2gl50cVJ1ypXqSZSc6SdWxAQR3rwuTgJ2H7bmAMQCx1ulubnrkn5xl0YQQhmwG8rzXLcJrxC2DwHZhGe_76mO_ZJp68T_Mp8T8N2DeC7fQ/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h16/kpV5yg2rSrQ7Np2OEDAHSwCUMPTTlabfUC9Z18XRZns" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Republicans had a better than five-to-one advantage</a> in drawing congressional districts.<ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">But on Nov. 3, Democrats have an opportunity to deny the GOP total control over drawing a heap of those districts—specifically in places like <strong>North Carolina</strong> and <strong>Texas</strong>.<ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">They also have the opportunity to increase Democratic leverage in Pennsylvania and protect independent redistricting commissions in <strong>Arizona, Iowa</strong>, and <strong>Michigan</strong>.<ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">Bonus: Possible total control over redistricting in <strong>Minnesota</strong> if Democrats flip the state Senate and pick up a governing trifecta in the state.</li></ul></li></ul></li></ul></li><li style="margin-left: 15px;">And, well, while we don’t know how reapportionment is going to shake out (who’s excited for <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDKZ7E6kGPb6T03ev97qMj1yz8awodDlJeKylku5pg56dhVkukZufwzY2cGb1JeHbdWGhkzWn4dRbXmYld6v88tEDJEIXzLz4_fWQClL0sDzc7e_HRM628IW_gZUASG-KSRKUtmCmPD5sZ9c1mrKcM68cEFTvHiIpUMWrXbzs-MrrJ7c18fSBIJQBAjSREdKQ1xSjx1rNd74jeB2mVNCLpD5EOtgQAji5MredM_JRKLncwQrYq7YjJuey8bNfRry6pvdScznUrjbJU1FkL10Q2YEMGwK-zWAyp59RJ_05ZXG5oGtXrYfHmhO-dkZ7GPYKMP7Hs65j-NDMJ5xAOfslZ3QOtlBBPyLdbWuUnhuVtmNTXAn_DL5cwLGFqtusi83DKQ/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h17/IW8jQzXoPH1hc3eQ_dAk2zxITbMIwcXCr-tSHriw_So&source=gmail&ust=1603502217444000&usg=AFQjCNGPk46IowDgUsCPhbJ47AjwIsaizw" href="https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDKZ7E6kGPb6T03ev97qMj1yz8awodDlJeKylku5pg56dhVkukZufwzY2cGb1JeHbdWGhkzWn4dRbXmYld6v88tEDJEIXzLz4_fWQClL0sDzc7e_HRM628IW_gZUASG-KSRKUtmCmPD5sZ9c1mrKcM68cEFTvHiIpUMWrXbzs-MrrJ7c18fSBIJQBAjSREdKQ1xSjx1rNd74jeB2mVNCLpD5EOtgQAji5MredM_JRKLncwQrYq7YjJuey8bNfRry6pvdScznUrjbJU1FkL10Q2YEMGwK-zWAyp59RJ_05ZXG5oGtXrYfHmhO-dkZ7GPYKMP7Hs65j-NDMJ5xAOfslZ3QOtlBBPyLdbWuUnhuVtmNTXAn_DL5cwLGFqtusi83DKQ/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h17/IW8jQzXoPH1hc3eQ_dAk2zxITbMIwcXCr-tSHriw_So" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">Redistmas</a>? … well, <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDLubYp5v3B2LWfuhsVVcOh3vnR-g5gyjNfOD_WHwpVeGXBhECeri4YKGgT2RPZ9pDyQ0Q6Pa4czVq73Wsk5EGbFAoTM5UdUbG19_6INCuMIuG0VdrCShMaqKpsEDYycd7IknGK6MjgIXx0mUQ8vAhZX_nqcBnCp-EHZnQMHN-N4qbor67hmODtyn2t6S82dPjYVaPKxi-Sz2w-cpDSs9LMT-qM2qVRZjsl6mVbHkbXPevh6mEa0tliRKsHrfkovoBjbPJ6uME2zHcENWGpJyso6shGRuDXPnQgDmVYCprRUYxABBH7j2cXpDhR6Q41M8BXW29SWPmiegnToBCxLukciUE3e345aCLNYIghsavCINzeKm0WgxW0bLuFazW9mChqwN03p2D1eqRLBr54Q4kr0xkUQJpWMo47v1AVrcQ5OW/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h18/5yQcomYethIRR-Pg4GoGVj3Thc5lCsUlTKM3DVgYqz4&source=gmail&ust=1603502217444000&usg=AFQjCNH3Sctj4HnF2uKLkbDjVqKdSM4J7A" href="https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDLubYp5v3B2LWfuhsVVcOh3vnR-g5gyjNfOD_WHwpVeGXBhECeri4YKGgT2RPZ9pDyQ0Q6Pa4czVq73Wsk5EGbFAoTM5UdUbG19_6INCuMIuG0VdrCShMaqKpsEDYycd7IknGK6MjgIXx0mUQ8vAhZX_nqcBnCp-EHZnQMHN-N4qbor67hmODtyn2t6S82dPjYVaPKxi-Sz2w-cpDSs9LMT-qM2qVRZjsl6mVbHkbXPevh6mEa0tliRKsHrfkovoBjbPJ6uME2zHcENWGpJyso6shGRuDXPnQgDmVYCprRUYxABBH7j2cXpDhR6Q41M8BXW29SWPmiegnToBCxLukciUE3e345aCLNYIghsavCINzeKm0WgxW0bLuFazW9mChqwN03p2D1eqRLBr54Q4kr0xkUQJpWMo47v1AVrcQ5OW/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h18/5yQcomYethIRR-Pg4GoGVj3Thc5lCsUlTKM3DVgYqz4" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">whenever it happens this time around</a>), we do know that those states have a slew of congressional districts among them.<ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">So whichever party does or doesn’t control the map-drawing process in each state is going to have a massive impact on which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives through 2030.</li></ul></li><li style="margin-left: 15px;">As apportionment currently stands, depriving Republicans of complete control of redistricting in <strong>North Carolina</strong> by flipping either the state House or Senate would prevent them from drawing 13 districts to suit their partisan whims.</li><li style="margin-left: 15px;">Taking away complete GOP control in <strong>Texas</strong> by flipping the state House would prevent them from gerrymandering 36 districts.</li><li style="margin-left: 15px;">Increasing Democratic leverage in <strong>Pennsylvania</strong> by giving the Democratic governor an allied chamber would boost the prospect of fair maps in 18 districts.</li><li style="margin-left: 15px;">Protecting commissions in <strong>Arizona, Iowa</strong>, and <strong>Michigan</strong> would insulate nine, four, and 14 seats, respectively, from GOP meddling.</li><li style="margin-left: 15px;">And flipping the state Senate in <strong>Minnesota</strong> would give Democrats complete control over the drawing of another eight congressional districts.<ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">Again, these state-by-state numbers are subject to change (and almost certainly will) next year, but not by a ton.</li></ul></li></ul><p style="margin: 1em 0px;">(If you’re into this stuff, you should definitely check out this amazing <a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDCxDIu4OO3SBv2TLoLPFt2dLIP4PAF6ES6JxS6nXNF79HmY3Po2HgcAy3KamW1e7WaY5Kd_M25LA42pREQNYD_D5uhHyAlwUP5WT3bkaEGzYj1LQAbZKW6EuwScP2wEWbObFUda3ozI6-zTFMpPL6au9Jb1ut1kZKDvRtSEtl5EzUNZLGOxg4EhunfygQ7hDpF3xgF3UpVDCmePESSKbBg7DMCRgJ9kVnmdpacEaUpNTTJhPUCGgIxHGphbFGyW_l1m_XlH3zco54UJaHfi_P3MmVGwpI43Ba_9-Or7RAMd7jVFwaeJDScL5jK6ywLfYoaIN--FdUWkxggGSzhpRlEQSo1n7AzeZfenl_vSDbWn88teVYlqwerLXWZWEWUKxR2JX6N9VDfJA-jd2P9LqRLn4JgFkUthzRsPkam9cmaQIX__MJ2kmwCjsJ8U_FGhAFw/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h19/c5X___a39rVft9Jxo8pPuvsVwOrdrmPiE1pBMpdQ-YI&source=gmail&ust=1603502217444000&usg=AFQjCNHQZJ8RYYxnpXb-WkUFCjuIUUcwJA" href="https://u1584542.ct.sendgrid.net/ss/c/atcYNHk4Eh2YdGnwBh-YDCxDIu4OO3SBv2TLoLPFt2dLIP4PAF6ES6JxS6nXNF79HmY3Po2HgcAy3KamW1e7WaY5Kd_M25LA42pREQNYD_D5uhHyAlwUP5WT3bkaEGzYj1LQAbZKW6EuwScP2wEWbObFUda3ozI6-zTFMpPL6au9Jb1ut1kZKDvRtSEtl5EzUNZLGOxg4EhunfygQ7hDpF3xgF3UpVDCmePESSKbBg7DMCRgJ9kVnmdpacEaUpNTTJhPUCGgIxHGphbFGyW_l1m_XlH3zco54UJaHfi_P3MmVGwpI43Ba_9-Or7RAMd7jVFwaeJDScL5jK6ywLfYoaIN--FdUWkxggGSzhpRlEQSo1n7AzeZfenl_vSDbWn88teVYlqwerLXWZWEWUKxR2JX6N9VDfJA-jd2P9LqRLn4JgFkUthzRsPkam9cmaQIX__MJ2kmwCjsJ8U_FGhAFw/369/naHRn8NpTVOdxlstq44F7w/h19/c5X___a39rVft9Jxo8pPuvsVwOrdrmPiE1pBMpdQ-YI" style="color: #1155cc;" target="_blank">state-by-state breakdown of how redistricting functions literally everywhere in the country</a>, courtesy of your very smart friends at Daily Kos Elections.)</p><p style="margin: 1em 0px;">So that’s a whole lot of long-term potential partisan impact on Congress that’s going to be determined by just a few handfuls of state legislative seats on Nov. 3.</p><ul><li style="margin-left: 15px;">And that’s to say nothing of the other outsized impacts state legislative control has on other stuff, from candidate benches to policy incubators to … well, hopefully I’ll have some time to get into that next week.</li></ul><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.effinbirds.com/" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2xA-hWh8RcF06AWo398ENLKTwWglEH0an1o9R_6R4z_FMmXsN33rsmwalzK4HT3KA1Yi5Ip1SBo4Jca0HDFxp9Z2StP3dmBBpb80R05j0RDK_IVWiLBcQeEb9Cin8ug8U7LpEuV2QDpmt/s320/this+is+boring.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /></div></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></big></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-24242705217183755192020-10-15T22:19:00.004-04:002020-10-15T22:28:59.886-04:00How Tarot Can You Go edition<p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There’s something about hitting the teens that’s scary.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">As in days left until the election, I mean.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Not adolescence.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Or literally assaulting teenagers. Please don’t do that.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But we’re a whole 19 days out now, so there’s no time to waste.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">The High Priestess</em></u>: The fact that the election is less than three weeks away means it’s high time I unveil my state legislative chamber flip ratings.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Mostly I’m just going to be talking about the ones I’ve <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/7/2/1957530/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-2-Lock-2-Down-edition" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">previously discussed</a> as flippable for Dems, but I’m going to be sprinkling in bits about a few chambers that aren’t on this list, too.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Democrats are mostly agreed on which chambers are the highest priorities for the party this year (though reasonable minds can and do differ around the edges).</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Factors considered in creating this target list include:</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">How many seats do Democrats need to flip to win a majority in the chamber?</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Do past election results, political trends, or other factors indicate that Democrats can flip that many seats in a single election?</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Was Democratic recruitment strong?</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Do legislators in that state impact redistricting (some states, like California, task independent commissions with drawing legislative and congressional maps)?</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Topmost among those targets are (in alphabetical order, nothing to read into here):</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Arizona House (Dems need to flip two for a majority)</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Arizona Senate (Dems need to flip three)</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Michigan House (Dems need to flip four)</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Minnesota Senate (flip two)</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">North Carolina House (flip six)</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">North Carolina Senate (flip five)</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Pennsylvania House (flip nine)</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Texas House (flip nine)</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Arizona</strong>, flipping either chamber would break the Republican trifecta. While legislative and congressional maps there are drawn by an independent redistricting commission, Republicans have spent the entire decade trying to undermine and dismantle the body; as long as the GOP has complete control of the state, fair redistricting is in real danger.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Michigan</strong>, flipping the House would help stymie ongoing GOP efforts to dismantle or defang the independent redistricting commission the party’s been attacking since voters approved it in 2018.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Minnesota</strong>, flipping the state Senate would give Democrats a governing trifecta (governorship, House, Senate) and complete control of the redistricting process.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Flipping at least one chamber in<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">North Carolina</strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>is essential to preventing another GOP gerrymander of the state. The Democratic governor is generally favored to win reelection here, but it doesn’t matter—the legislature has complete control of legislative and congressional redistricting.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">While Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is positioned to veto egregious partisan gerrymanders sent to him by the legislature, flipping a chamber in<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Pennsylvania</strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>would give him a redistricting partner, so to speak, which would send him a fair map to approve, levy against the GOP in negotiations, or be considered by the Democratic-majority state Supreme Court in litigation.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Flipping the<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Texas</strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>House would break the GOP trifecta in the state and give Democrats a say in the redistricting process for the first time since the infamous<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/01/opinion/the-texas-gerrymander.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">DeLay-mander of 2003</a>.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Helpfully, no Dem-held chambers are really in danger of flipping.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">… unless you count the Alaska House, which is counted among Democratic-majority chambers but was actually <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/2/16/1835105/-Democratic-led-coalition-takes-power-in-Alaska-House-robbing-GOP-of-2018-s-lone-legislative-pickup" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">a cobbled-together coalition</a> of Dems, independents, and moderate Republicans.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And I say “was” for a reason.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This coalition <a href="https://www.adn.com/politics/alaska-legislature/2020/10/06/two-republicans-key-members-of-the-alaska-houses-coalition-now-support-a-republican-majority/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">recently disintegrated</a> after two of its six GOP members lost their primaries in August and a third died in a plane crash.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The remaining three Republicans say they support GOP control of the chamber next year.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So Republicans may be able to technically chalk up a chamber flip in their column after Nov. 3—even if they fail to pick up a single seat in this chamber.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Bully for them. Let’s get back to the statehouses that matter this fall.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(A quick note: The ratings I use are Safe, Likely, Lean, Tossup. Don’t give me any of this “Tilt” nonsense; that just means you can’t make up your mind and/or don’t have the guts to commit.)</span></em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">The Sun</em></u>:<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> Arizona</strong> House (31 R/29 D) and Senate (17 R/13 D): I’d say both of these chambers are tossups.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Here’s why:</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Thanks to the<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/4/24/1852619/-Arizona-s-2018-Senate-race-offers-roadmap-for-Democrats-to-retake-the-state-legislature" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">deep-dive analysis</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>of my Daily Kos Elections colleagues, we know that there’s very much a path to the majority in each chamber.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">In 2018, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema defeated Republican Martha McSally 50-48 in the U.S. Senate race and<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1488641985" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">carried 16 of the state’s 30 legislative districts</a>—<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">enough for narrow majorities in both the House and the Senate if Democrats can win all of them.</span></span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">First, a quick primer on how legislative districts, like,<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">work</em><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>in Arizona, because its setup is a little different from most other states.</span></span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Arizona is divided into 30 legislative districts, and each one of these districts elects one senator and two state representatives every two years.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The districts are exactly the same for both chambers.</span></span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Each party can nominate up to two candidates for each House district, and voters can vote for their top two choices in the general election.</span></span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The two candidates with the most votes are elected.</span></span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Currently, Republicans have a 17-13 majority in the state Senate and a 31-29 majority in the House.</span></span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Neither chambers has a presiding tie-breaking entity (<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">fun fact: Arizona doesn't have a lieutenant governor!</em>), so a tie in either chamber would result in either</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">A power-sharing agreement, or</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Defections from one party or the other.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Either way, it’s better to have that outright majority.</span></li></ul></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In 2016, Clinton carried 14 of the state’s 30 legislative districts as she lost the state to Donald Trump 49-45.</span></span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In 2018, Sinema carried those 14 districts and also won two districts that went for Trump.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">These Sinema/Trump districts are LD-17 and LD-20.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">LD-17 moved from 51-43 Trump to 50-47 Sinema.</span></span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">LD-20 went from 49-45 Trump to 51-47 Sinema.</span></span></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Let’s take a closer look at LD-17.</span></span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">In 2018, Republican J.D. Mesnard won an open Senate race<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=838915" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;">by a narrow 51-49 margin</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">, so he’s a prime Democratic target for 2020.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">He’s being challenged by Democrat<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.voteforaj.com/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">AJ Kurdoglu</a>, an immigrant and naturalized citizen who’s a small business owner and an ardent supporter of fully-funded public education and expanded access to quality health care.</span></span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And now for LD-20.</span></span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This district currently has an all-GOP delegation.</span></span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">In the 2018 Senate race, Paul Boyer<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=838918" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;">won an open seat 48-44</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">He faces Democrat and Arizona native<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.ervinforaz.com/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Doug Ervin</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>this November.</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">In the 2018 House election, Republicans Anthony Kern and Shawnna Bolick took first and second place<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=853893" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;">with 26 percent of the vote each</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">, while a pair of Democrats were close behind with 24 percent apiece.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Teacher and community leader<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.judyforaz.com/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Judy Schwiebert</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>is the only Democrat on the ballot in the district this year.</span></span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But possibly the most tantalizing prospect for Arizona Democrats this year is LD-28.</span></span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">You see, this district went for both Clinton (50-45) and Sinema (55-43), but it still has a Republican in its legislative delegation.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">GOP state Sen. Kate McGee barely managed to win re-election in 2018 </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">by a margin of<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=838926" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">just 265 votes</a>.</span></span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This fall, she’s in a rematch with Democrat<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.christineportermarsh.com/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Christine Marsh</a>, a longtime educator (Arizona’s 2016 teacher of the year).</span></span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Both Trump and McSally won LD-06 (by <span style="box-sizing: border-box;">52-42 and 49-47, respectively),</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>but this one is definitely on Dems’ target list.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Republican Wendy Rogers, who won an expensive Senate primary against a well-known incumbent in August, faces Democrat<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.frenchforaz.com/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Felicia French</a>, an Army veteran, medevac helicopter pilot, and registered nurse.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">On the House side, Democrat and Flagstaff mayor<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.coralevansaz.com/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Coral Evans</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>is looking to capture one of the two seats in the district from either<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona_House_of_Representatives_District_6" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">a Republican incumbent, a Republican newcomer, or an independent candidate</a>.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So, the paths to Democratic majorities in the Arizona House and Senate are fairly narrow and certainly challenging, but they very much exist.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But these races don’t exist in a vacuum.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Downballot Democrats are going to be helped by high-performing members of their party in other races, too.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Mark Kelly seems all but certain to oust U.S. Senator Martha McSally.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Polling consistently has the Democrat with <a href="https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/15/mark-kelly-widens-lead-over-martha-mcsally-post-debate-senate-poll/3659955001/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">a strong lead</a> in the race, and McSally’s, Trump’s, and GOP Gov. Doug Ducey’s <a href="https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_AZ_banner_book_2020_06_gh368w.pdf" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">unfavorables are all fairly high</a>, indicating a general level of dissatisfaction with Republican governance in the state that is likely to aid the party currently out of power.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">The Devil</em></u>:<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> Michigan</strong> House <span style="box-sizing: border-box;">(58 R/52 D): Shouldn’t be a tossup (should Lean D) but is.</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">Not-so-fun-fact! Republicans have won a majority in the 110-seat Michigan House of Representatives since the last round of redistricting in 2011</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qTxxrLQlnrEl9ocgwUM7EL4PasH-5lmyf7sttn2GSMg/edit" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>despite Democrats winning more votes in three of the last four elections</a>!</span></span></span></span></em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Yeah, that’s a solid GOP gerrymander for ya.</span></span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Again, the Daily Kos Elections crew crunched the numbers and gave us presidential and other<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/30/1915192/-Democrats-need-four-seats-to-flip-the-Michigan-House-Our-new-data-shows-us-the-top-targets" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">statewide elections results broken down by legislative district</a>.</span></span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But despite the GOP’s incredibly skewed map, Democrats<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">do</em><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>have a path to a majority in the Wolverine State.</span></span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">In 2018, </span></span>Democrat Gretchen Whitmer defeated Republican Bill Schuette 53-44 to become governor and<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://docs.google.com/a/d2j.us/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=872043035" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;">carried 56 of the 110 House seats</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">—exactly the number that her party needs to take a majority.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Helpfully, no Democrats represent districts won by Schuette, which means that Republicans are playing defense in four seats Whitmer won.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">That said, Trump won three of these four seats in 2016, so a sweep is a tall order for sure.</span></span></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Let’s take a peek at those four districts.</span></span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Democrats’ apparent best pickup opportunity in the state is HD-61, which supported Whitmer by a wide 54-43 margin and backed Hillary Clinton 49-45.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Republican incumbent Brandt Iden won his third term 51-49 in 2018, but the thing about Michigan is that the state legislature is subject to term limits.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a href="https://www.mlive.com/news/kalamazoo/2020/01/us-rep-fred-upton-endorses-former-white-house-appointee-in-state-house-race.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So, Iden’s out and we have an open seat.</span></a></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The Republican in the race is Bronwyn Haltom, a longtime GOP operative who<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.mlive.com/news/kalamazoo/2019/07/former-white-house-aide-runs-for-state-house-seat-in-kalamazoo-county.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">returned to Michigan just last year after working in Trump’s White House</a>.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">She faces Democrat<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.vote4morse.com/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Christine Morse</a>, a county commissioner and breast cancer survivor whose life and family experiences have made her a staunch progressive.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">A little more of a reach are HDs 38 and 39, both won by Trump in 2016 and by Whitmer in 2018.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-38 went for Trump 49-46 before supporting Whitmer 52-46.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">This seat is being vacated by termed-out GOP state Rep. Kathy Crawford, who won her final term<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Kathy_Crawford_(Michigan)" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" title="">by a narrow 49-48</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>in 2018.</span></span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The Republican hoping to replace him is Chase Turner, who<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Chase_Turner" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">attempted to primary Crawford</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>two years ago.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/07/16/oakland-county-state-house-primary-election-races/5362827002/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Trump acolyte has been running for the seat ever since</a>.</span></span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">He faces Democrat<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://kellybreen.com/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Kelly Breen</a>, who<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Michigan_House_of_Representatives_District_38" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">lost to the outgoing incumbent by just 588</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>votes last cycle.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">She’s an attorney and city councilmember whose priorities include healthcare, the environment, and repealing the state’s so-called “right to work” law.</span></span></li></ul></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-39 backed Trump 50-46, but Whitmer won it 53-45.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">Republican incumbent Ryan Berman was elected to his first term in 2018<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Ryan_Berman" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;">54-42</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">, but that election took place under … unfortunate circumstances:</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">The Democratic candidate was<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.theoaklandpress.com/news/copscourts/state-rep-candidate-arraigned-on-embezzlement-charge-faces-years-in/article_612141f4-ce43-11e8-bc4d-237041427140.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;">charged with embezzlement</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>during the race and was sentenced<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.theoaklandpress.com/news/copscourts/former-candidate-jennifer-suidan-sentenced-to-probation-for-stealing-andy/article_94d946c0-6b75-11e9-b16f-17edc7a534a6.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;">to five years’ probation</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>after the election.</span></span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This time around, Berman faces<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.juliapulver.com/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Julia Pulver</a>, a nurse who counts healthcare as her highest policy priority—a sure selling point as the pandemic continues to rage.</span></span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And finally there’s HD-45, which supported Whitmer just 49.2-48.8—a margin of 181 votes.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In 2016, Trump took the seat 51-44.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">Republican incumbent Michael Webber<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Michael_Webber" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;">won 55-45</a> in 2018<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">, but he’s termed-out this year, depriving Republicans of the benefit of incumbency, at least.</span></span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Republican Mark Tisdel is<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/07/16/oakland-county-state-house-primary-election-races/5362827002/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">running to succeed him</a>.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">He “supports most Trump policies” but “wishes the president would quit tweeting.”</span></span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Democrat<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.barbanness.com/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">Barb Anness</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>is a small business owner and a local education board trustee whose years of education advocacy will strongly inform her priorities in the Michigan House.</span></span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So while these targets are super viable, flipping the Michigan House on Nov. 3 will require a lot to go right for Democrats.</span></span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Specifically, not only do they have to run the table in these four districts, but they also may have some defense to play.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Remember, 10 seats Democrats currently hold voted for Trump in 2016 (though they all went for Whitmer two years later).</span></span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But Democrats do have a perfectly viable long-shot target in HD-79, where young rising star <a href="https://www.chokwefor79th.org/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Chokwe Pitchford</a> is taking on incumbent <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Michigan_House_of_Representatives_District_79" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Pauline Wendzel</a> in a district Whitmer lost <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=872043035" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">just 47-50</a>.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">The Star</em></u>: <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Minnesota</strong> Senate (35 R/32 D): Likely D (hell yeah).</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The Daily Kos Elections squad crunched these numbers and revealed<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/6/30/1957152/-Minnesota-Democrats-2018-successes-give-party-plenty-of-targets-in-GOP-held-state-Senate" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">multiple opportunities for Democrats to win that coveted trifecta (Dems already control the state House and governorship) this fall</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Republicans currently have a 35-32 majority in the Minnesota Senate.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried just 28 seats in the 67-seat chamber.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Womp womp</span></em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But!</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In the special U.S. Senate election in 2018, Democrat Tina Smith carried 39 out of 67 districts.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Democrat Tim Walz carried those same 39 seats, plus two more.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Sen. Amy Klobuchar annihilated her GOP opponent and carried a ridiculous 52 of the 67 Senate seats, but a closer look reveals the most viable targets.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Eight of them, specifically, found among the eight Smith/Waltz districts currently represented by Republicans.</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">It’s worth noting, though, that only two of those seats supported Clinton in 2016 (<a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1704872861" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">SDs 44 and 56</a>).</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">… which, well, is fine, since Democrats only have to flip two for that sweet Senate majority and hot trifecta action.</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So, in addition to SDs 44 and 56, keep an eye on SDs 11, 14, 25, 26, 28, 34, 38, and 39.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Judgement</em></u>:<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> North Carolina</strong> House (65 R/55 D) and Senate (29 R/21 D): Lean R and Likely R, respectively.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">By the by, the North Carolina House call is the toughest one of this bunch. I’m so close to rating it Tossup, but the maps are … <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">ugh.</em></span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">North Carolina Republicans passed new maps for state<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=954374087" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">House</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>and<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://docs.google.com/a/d2j.us/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=109663977" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Senate</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>districts in September 2019 after a state court struck down their 2017 gerrymanders—maps that got locked in place after the plaintiffs</span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/11/18/1900142/-Morning-Digest-Democrat-John-Bel-Edwards-wins-a-second-term-as-governor-of-Louisiana#18" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>abandoned further appeals and<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span>ended their lawsuit</a> for reasons unknown and unknowable<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So, state House and Senate candidates are running on these lines for the first time this year.</span></span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">My Daily Kos Elections colleagues<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/11/21/1901010/-Reformers-fought-North-Carolina-GOP-gerrymanders-in-court-and-wound-up-with-another-gerrymander" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">calculated the 2016 presidential results for both maps</a>, and the result was … not as bad as it used to be, at least!</span></span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The bottom line is that Democrats acquiesced to GOP-drawn maps that<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">do</em> give Democrats the chance to win more seats this fall, but it’s still going to be challenging for the party to take a majority in either chamber.</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">… which, frankly, was always going to be the case to some extent.</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Let’s take a look at the details.</span></span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">Under the maps in effect this year, Trump<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=954374087" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">took 72 House seats</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> (out of 120) </span>and<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=109663977" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">28 Senate districts</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> (out of 50).</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Translation: Even though Trump won just 51% of the vote in 2016, he’d still have won 59% of all seats in the legislature on these district lines.</span></span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So based on presidential performance in these districts, the current maps make it difficult for Democrats to shake the GOP’s grip on power.</span></span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But that’s not the whole story!</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Again, these elections don’t take place in a vacuum.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Not only does North Carolina have Joe Biden with a slight edge over Trump on the presidential level, but there are two other high-profile statewide contests here this year.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Specifically, U.S. Senate and governor.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And Democrats not only <a href="https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_NC_banner_book_2020_10_g32na7.pdf" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">have solid leads in both of those contests</a>, but, for an incumbent governor running for reelection, Roy Cooper has ridiculously strong favorable/unfavorable numbers: <a href="https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_NC_banner_book_2020_10_g32na7.pdf" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">52%-44%, specifically</a>.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This apparent faith in Democrats’ ability to govern the state will only benefit Democrats running to help him out in Raleigh next year.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Is flipping either chamber of the North Carolina legislature going to be easy?</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Nope.</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But it’s both absolutely doable and incredibly important.</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Fun fact! In 2022, the Tar Heel State will have new legislative maps for the fourth cycle in a row.</span></em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">The Tower</em></u>: <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Pennsylvania</strong> House (110 R/ 93 D): Lean R.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">With nine seats needed to flip the chamber to a Democratic majority, it’s certainly one of the heavier lifts on this list.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But, again, my colleagues dug into the numbers—specifically<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/7/21/1962702/-Why-Democrats-have-a-path-to-victory-in-one-of-the-GOP-s-most-gerrymandered-legislatures" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">the 2018 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate results</a>—and lo! They discovered a fairly heartening Democratic path to the majority.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Like most legislatures’ lower chambers, all members of the (203-seat!) Pennsylvania House are up for reelection every two years, so every seat is up this fall.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Republicans hold a 110-93 majority (there are a couple of vacancies, but we slot those in the column of the party that last held the seat).</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I’m sure you recall that Donald Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, but not only did he carry the state; he also<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1371575098" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;">took 119 of those 203 state House districts</a> (Clinton carried 83)<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">.</span></span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Bummer, right?</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Sure, but things change.</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And in the Keystone State, change they did.</span></span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">When Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey won reelection over Republican Lou Barletta in 2018, he carried those 83 Clinton districts, plus 36 more. (...that’s 119.)</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf did even better in his reelect that year, winning those 119 districts + 13 more (= 132).</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So! The math looks good. Democrats just have to win a bunch of those Casey districts, right? And maybe some Wolf districts, just for fun?</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Alas, it’s never that simple.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">First thing to consider is that, of the Democrats currently in the chamber, there’s some defense to play.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Two Democrats are in seats won by Trump/Barletta/Wagner.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Three represent seats won by Trump/Barletta/Wolf.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ten Dems serve in Trump/Casey/Wolf seats.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But, based on trends, it’s fair to not fret too much about those ten Democrats.</span></li></ul></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So, let’s assume anywhere from two to five Democrats are playing pretty serious defense this fall.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Not great, but it’s a better place to be than the Pennsylvania House GOP right now.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Here’s why:</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Six Republicans occupy seats won by Clinton AND Casey AND Wolf.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Good targets! But even if Dems keep all their current seats, not enough.</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">However, another 25 Republicans represent seats that went for Trump in 2016 but shifted to Casey and Wolf in 2018.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So, even with Democrats playing some defense, there’s a fairly broad map to flipping the nine seats they need to win a Pennsylvania House majority.</span></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But nine seats is a lot to flip in any cycle. Keystone Dems definitely have their work cut out for them.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">However!</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Democratic energy in the Pennsylvania is clearly sky-high.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">We know this because</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">65% of the mail-in ballots requested to date were requested by Democrats.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But even better—Democrats <a href="https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">are returning these mail-in ballots at a ridiculously high rate</a> compared to Republicans.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">22.8 vs. 12.6, specifically.</span></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">If the map were any more friendly, this would 100% be a Tossup. <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">So</em> close.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And last but most certainly anything but least,</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Wheel of Fortune</em></u>: <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Texas</strong> House <span style="box-sizing: border-box;">(83 R/67 D): Tossup.</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Yeah, you read that right.</span></span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">That “flip nine” bit looks a little intimidating, but there’s good reason to be cautiously optimistic about this admittedly heavy lift of a state.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">While the state Senate is safely in GOP hands (it’s a heavily gerrymandered<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/8/6/1967074/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Hurricane-You-Dig-It-edition" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">19 R/12 D</a> chamber), the House is a viable target.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">If Democrats can flip this chamber, they can block a sure-to-be severely gerrymandered Republican congressional map.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This would kick the process over to the courts, which is likely to result in districts that are more fair than anything drawn by the GOP (though the bar is extraordinarily low on that).</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And fairer districts are likely to give Democrats and Latinos more opportunities to win congressional seats than any Republican map.</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">State legislative redistricting, however, would effectively remain in GOP hands, based on<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Texas#State_process" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">the process currently in place</a>.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So, given the state of things (83 R/67 D), why am I kinda bullish on Democrats flipping those nine Texas House seats?</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Because in 2018, Democrat Beto O’Rourke<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/6/24/1866922/-A-key-GOP-retirement-in-Texas-shows-how-Democrats-could-win-the-state-House-and-stop-gerrymandering" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">won exactly nine currently GOP-held House seats</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>in his U.S. Senate race against Ted Cruz.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And yeah, that’s an awfully narrow path, but on top of that,<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=1820080179" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">eight other Republicans represent districts Cruz won by fewer than four points</a>.</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The nine GOP districts Beto won are</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-26</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-64</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-66</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-67</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-108</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-112</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-121</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-134</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-138</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-26 is an open seat after incumbent Rick Miller decided not to run for reelection after being publicly rebuked by GOP leadership for saying that<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2019/12/03/greg-abbott-rescinds-endorsement-texas-republican-rick-miller/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">his primary opponents decided to run against him because they’re Asian</a>. Democrat Sarah DeMerchant<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_House_of_Representatives_District_26" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">faces</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>Republican Jacey Jetton.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-64 is currently represented by Lynn Stuckey,<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_House_of_Representatives_District_64" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">who’s facing</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>Democrat Angela Brewer this fall.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-66 is a rematch between incumbent Matt Shaheen and Democrat Sharon Hirsch,<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_House_of_Representatives_District_66" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">who lost by just 391 votes in 2018</a>.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-67 is represented by Jeff Leach,<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_House_of_Representatives_District_67" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">who faces</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>Democrat Lorenzo Sanchez in November.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-108 is a rematch between incumbent Morgan Meyer and Democrat Joanna Cattanach, a race<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_House_of_Representatives_District_108" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">decided by just 220 votes in 2018</a>.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-112 is a rematch between incumbent Angie Chen Button and Democrat Brandy Chambers,<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_House_of_Representatives_District_112" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">who lost by just over 1,000 votes in 2018</a>.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-121 is<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_House_of_Representatives_District_121" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">a rematch between</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>incumbent Steve Allison and Democrat Celina Montoya.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-134 is represented by Sarah Davis,<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_House_of_Representatives_District_121" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">who faces</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>Democrat Ann Johnson.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HD-138 is an open seat (the incumbent Republican retired after winning reelection by just 47 votes in 2018). Republican Lacey Hull<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_House_of_Representatives_District_138" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">faces</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>Democrat Akilah Bacy.</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The additional districts Democrats are targeting because Beto lost by under four points are HDs 14, 28, 54, 92, 93, 94, 96, and 97.</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But Republican woes in the Lone Star State are built on more than just numbers.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The party is coming off of many months of infighting and (<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/10/24/1893267/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Knock-It-Out-Of-The-Shark-edition" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">as you may recall as an erudite consumer of this missive</a>) have already lost their House speaker to a scandal arising from intra-party conflict.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Further, having Donald Trump at the top of the ticket might not do the GOP any favors this year.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">His approval there is underwater (<a href="https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_TX_banner_book_2020_10_cm5k3s.pdf" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">46%/53% approve/disapprove</a>)</span></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But it gets better!</span></span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">Local news site Reform Austin<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.reformaustin.org/elections/ra-news-polling-texas-house-flip-likely-abbott-approval-declining-trump-slipping-in-suburbs/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">has released a giant batch of polls</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>testing 22 different races for the Texas House, and the numbers are … holy cats, they’re good.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Democrats have the lead <a href="https://www.reformaustin.org/elections/ra-news-polling-texas-house-flip-likely-abbott-approval-declining-trump-slipping-in-suburbs/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">in 11 Republican-held seats</a>.</span></em><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Remember, they only have to flip nine to win the majority.</span></span></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So yeah, Texas.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Two years ago, it was hard to conceive including the state on any kind of single-election flip list.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But in November of 2018, Democrats picked up 12 seats, and voila! Here we are.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And speaking of where we are …</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Congrats on slogging through all of that!</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But tl;dr— </span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Arizona House: Tossup.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Arizona Senate: Tossup.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Michigan House: Tossup.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Minnesota Senate: Likely D.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">North Carolina House: Lean R.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">North Carolina Senate: Likely R.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Pennsylvania House: Lean R.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Texas House: Tossup.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Just 19 more days before … well, before we won’t actually yet know which party will have majority control of some of these chambers.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Because so many state legislative races are decided each year by 100 votes or so (or fewer!), don’t expect to know where all of these states stand by the time you go to bed on election night.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">It’ll take days to have full results. <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">At least. </em>Maybe even weeks.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">That’s normal, and that’s okay.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But when all is said and done, I predict Democrats will flip <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">at least</em> four legislative chamber majorities.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">If it’s an amazing night, Dems could flip seven.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">They may only net three to six because of the Alaska shenanigans I explained up top, but a House majority in Texas means a lot more to the future of either party than a House majority in Alaska. (Sorry, Alaska. You're great and I love your deadly bears.)</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But Alaska weirdness notwithstanding, Democrats aren’t actually really playing defense anywhere this year.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And there may be some sleeper flips—Iowa House, e.g. It’s a long shot, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Also … the Republican State Leadership Committee is making some spending decisions that could be defined as … questionable?</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://rslc.gop/new-tv-ad-governor-brian-kemp-endorses-david-jenkins-in-rslc-top-target-georgia-house-race/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Like, for instance, the org’s spending on ads in a Georgia House race</a>.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The RSLC is targeting the chamber’s Minority Leader, and it’s always fun to decapitate the opposition, but … this is really how Republicans are spending money?</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Almost $700,000, they claim.</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">To flip a single seat in a Deep South chamber they hold 105-74?</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Y’all I just don’t know</span></em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Well, that’s my spread (tarot joke!) for 2020 state legislative elections.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I’m a notorious pragmatist when it comes to these contests, and I hope my prediction of just four chamber flips is something we all laugh at me for in the weeks following the election when it turns out to be actually, like, 10.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">It’s not going to be 10</span></em></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Oh, and just because I’m not talking about Republican lawmakers in places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin pulling shenanigans with electors and mail-in ballots to throw presidential election results into chaos doesn’t mean I’m not still super worried about it.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">You can see me talk about how doggone worried I am about it on this week’s episode of The Brief, Daily Kos’ new politics show (<a href="https://youtu.be/vyWINSBHc3c?t=1768" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #996b3d; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">my bit starts at 29:25</a>), if you have time time to kill and need a laugh from looking at all the weird faces I make.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(The whole ep is really quite excellent—the amazing Elie Mystal is a tough act to follow for sure!)</span></p><div class="dk-editor-embed embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9 center-block" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 16px; height: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 371.25px; position: relative;"><div class="dk-editor-embed embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9 center-block" style="box-sizing: border-box; height: 0px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; overflow: hidden; padding: 0px 0px 371.25px; position: relative;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vyWINSBHc3c" style="border-style: initial; border-width: 0px; bottom: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; height: 371.25px; left: 0px; position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 660px;" width="560"></iframe></div></div><p class="is-empty-p" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding-bottom: 22px;"></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><br /></p>cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-57559634904381980562020-09-25T09:39:00.001-04:002020-09-25T09:39:22.315-04:00All Falls Down edition<p> </p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/9/24/1980331/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-All-Falls-Down-edition" target="_blank">Happy autumn</a>!</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">… except nothing is happy and it feels like it never will be again.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But wallowing in our anguish is a luxury we can’t afford, and besides, as one of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygiLUrJJjnM" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">my favorite philosophers is known for saying</a>, “Pain don’t hurt.”</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">What does hurt, though, is knowing that nearly a decade of Democratic down-ballot neglect could assist Donald Trump’s schemes to remain in the White House at any cost.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">As an erudite consumer of this missive, you’re likely aware of the dark political reality we face right now: Trump and those in his orbit are actively scheming and laying groundwork—</span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-is-trying-to-cast-doubt-on-an-election-he-might-lose/2020/09/17/9ff3ed02-f919-11ea-89e3-4b9efa36dc64_story.html" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; letter-spacing: 0.125px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">rhetorical</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">, </span><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-23/trump-says-supreme-court-needs-ninth-justice-to-decide-election" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; letter-spacing: 0.125px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">legal</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">, and </span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-fraud/federal-prosecutor-announces-inquiry-into-nine-discarded-ballots-cast-for-trump-idUSKCN26F3H8?il=0" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; letter-spacing: 0.125px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">otherwise</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">—to cast doubt on the result of this presidential election if it doesn’t go his way.</span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">The ways Trump might go about that are myriad. But one in particular could very much come into play in key swing states with GOP-controlled legislatures.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">… which, thanks to gerrymandering, is <a href="https://www.stateside.com/state-resource/legislative-partisan-splits" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">all of those key swing states</a>.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Florida</strong>? 23 R/17 D Senate, 73 R/47 D House.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Michigan</strong>? 22 R/16 D Senate, 58 R/51 D House (1 vacancy).</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">North Carolina</strong>? 29 R/21 D Senate, 65 R/55 D House.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Pennsylvania</strong>? 28 R/21 D Senate, 109 R/92 D House (2 vacancies).</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Wisconsin</strong>? 19 R/14 D Senate, 63 R/36 D Assembly.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So, why might this matter?</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">An expansive <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Atlantic</em> piece</a> about the various ways this election could go extremely pear-shaped published just this week leaned on a <a href="https://lawecommons.luc.edu/luclj/vol51/iss2/3/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Loyola University Chicago Law Journal article</a> to game out a pretty plausible hypothetical in Pennsylvania.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Here’s how it could go down:</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">As you know, in every state but two, the winner of that state’s popular vote gets all of that state’s electoral votes.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In Maine and Nebraska, two electors are assigned based on the candidate who wins the statewide popular vote, but if the other candidate wins any of that state’s congressional districts, the remaining electors are allocated accordingly.</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Every state’s electoral votes are cast by a pre-selected slate of electors determined by each party earlier in the year.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So, imagine it’s election night.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Polls are closing. Voters have been voting.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lots of voters actually voted weeks ago by mailing in their ballots.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But in some states, election officials <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">can’t begin counting those mail-in ballots until Election Day</a> itself.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And counting those ballots takes a while! They have to be removed from envelopes, unfolded, signatures verified, etc. before they’re ever fed into a counting machine or undergo whatever tabulation method that state employs.</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the counting of mail-in ballots can’t begin until Election Day.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Election officials get a bit of a head start in Florida and North Carolina.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Pennsylvania</strong>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/elections/absentee-ballot-early-voting.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">more than 2 million voters have already requested the state mail them absentee ballots</a>.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Of that number, <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">70% are Democrats</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Which means fewer Democrats plan to cast their votes in person on Election Day relative to the number of Republicans planning to do so.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So, right, it’s election night.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Pennsylvania’s in-person votes get tallied as the laborious endeavor of counting those mail-in ballots also gets under way.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">By the next morning, all of the in-person votes will have been counted.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But it’s likely that the counting of the mail-in ballots will still be going on.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Pennsylvania is a closely divided state in terms of partisan propensity.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Biden is generally favored to win here, but not by the ridiculous margin probably required to give him an obviously insurmountable lead by the time most Americans go to bed on election night.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ballot counting continues into Nov. 4, but Trump is already calling for a halt, baselessly screaming about fraud and illegal voting and Martians invading or something.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Seriously, who knows? All we know is that he’ll claim anything to serve his cause.</span></em></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In a non-Trump reality, vote tallying would continue, election officials would certify the results, that candidate’s electors would cast their ballots on Dec. 14, and life would go on.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But this hypothetical is taking place in the Trump era.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And Trump and his ilk are already telling us what they’re going to do.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So, say Biden’s small Nov. 3 vote deficit goes away or his small lead increases as more and more mail-in ballots are counted into Nov. 4 (and likely beyond).</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Election officials certify the results, and Pennsylvania’s Democratic governor sends a “certificate of ascertainment” to the National Archives and the president of the. U.S. Senate, thus notifying the federal government of which candidate’s electors have been officially appointed.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But election results in Pennsylvania won’t be certified <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results_certification_dates,_2020" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">until Nov. 11</a>.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Which gives Republicans a full week to stir shit.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And, as we know all too well these days, <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">a lot</em> can happen in a week.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">During this week, Trump and his allies would be clamoring for vote-counting to stop and screaming that any votes counted after Nov. 3 (never mind that they were received days or weeks earlier) are somehow fraudulent.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The Republicans who control the state legislature take this cue and claim that the vote tally can’t be trusted because it keeps (logically!) shifting in Biden’s favor as more of those overwhelmingly Democratic mail-in ballots get counted.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So suddenly those Republican lawmakers decide that <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/article/article-ii" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Article II of the U.S. Constitution</a> allows them to ex post facto allocate electors as <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">they</em> see fit, rather than the voters of Pennsylvania.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">They’ll yell about how the vote tally is “suspect” or “questionable” or “fraudulent” or whatever suits them, and they’ll claim that Article II gives them the authority to supersede the actually very legitimate results and replace the duly appointed Democratic electors with electors of their own choosing.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Which would be Trump electors, naturally.</span></li></ul></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Legal theories and claims will be thrown about, but in our hypothetical, ultimately these Trump electors meet and send their own “certificate of ascertainment” to the National Archives and the president of the U.S. Senate.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">… who just happens to be the vice president sharing a ballot with Trump.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So, when Congress convenes on Jan. 6, 2021, to officially count the electoral votes, they have two conflicting certificates of ascertainment from Pennsylvania.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Imagine this also happening in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Michigan</strong>, where absentee ballot requests are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/elections/absentee-ballot-early-voting.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">already twice what they were in 2016</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Election results aren’t certified there until Nov. 23, giving the GOP even more time to pull shenanigans.</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And let’s add <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Wisconsin</strong>, where mail-in ballot requests are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/elections/absentee-ballot-early-voting.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">more than six times</a> what they were in 2016.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And election results aren’t certified here <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results_certification_dates,_2020" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">until Dec. 1</a>!</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Scared yet?</span></em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">A Trump campaign legal adviser <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">has reportedly already affirmed that this GOP state legislator interference strategy</a> is very much a part of the campaign’s playbook.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But what are Republicans in these states saying?</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Ooooh I hope you weren’t expecting reassurance</span></em></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Party <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">admitted to already discussing the cast-doubt-on-the-election-outcome-and-have-the-legislature-appoint-electors strategy with the Trump campaign</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">GOP Senate Majority Leader Jake Corman was slightly more circumspect, but <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">he absolutely affirmed that Republicans would seek to effectively invalidate any votes counted after Nov. 3</a>—never mind that they’re totally legitimate ballots—by claiming that such votes could create “controversy.”</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Reporters have begun to ask other GOP leaders in other states about this Trump vote-invalidation scheme.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">While a spokesperson fo the Wisconsin Elections Commission correctly responded to a reporter’s inquiry that <a href="https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-election-officials-gop-lawmakers-cannot-unilaterally-select-presidential-electors/article_76b2fcf6-996d-5fe3-94c6-0d7e173d3156.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">existing law in the state doesn’t give lawmakers the ability to choose electors</a>, I’d like to point out that state law doesn’t outright prohibit it, either.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">GOP Assembly Speaker Robin Vos claims that “<a href="https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/wisconsin-election-officials-gop-lawmakers-cannot-unilaterally-select-presidential-electors/article_76b2fcf6-996d-5fe3-94c6-0d7e173d3156.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">there’s no such effort</a>” to invalidate actual election results in Wisconsin.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Republican Senate President Scott Fitzgerald didn’t respond to requests for comment.</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But Vos already has a history of casting doubt on narrow statewide Democratic victories.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">After Democrat Tony Evers narrowly defeated GOP Gov. Scott Walker in 2018, Vos suggested that Wisconsin’s two largest cities—Milwaukee and Madison—shouldn’t really count.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">“If you took Madison and Milwaukee out of the state election formula, we would have a clear majority,” <a href="https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/08/wisconsin-election-did-redistricting-limit-dem-inroads-legislature/1919288002/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">according to the Republican leader</a>.</span></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Because over 800,000 Wisconsinites’ votes shouldn’t count because they happen to live in cities, I guess?</span></em></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But let’s extrapolate that attitude towards a hotly contested, close presidential election in the state.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And let’s take into account that <a href="https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/23/gop-appeals-ruling-extended-absentee-ballot-count-wisconsin/3504361001/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">the Republicans who control the legislature are appealing a recent court decision</a> that allows election officials to count absentee ballots postmarked by Nov. 3 even if they’re received up to six days after the election.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Republicans don’t want those votes to count.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And they’re going to proclaim from every available pulpit and soapbox and media outlet that those votes shouldn’t count.</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And based on <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/long-lines-form-in-milwaukee-as-wisconsin-proceeds-with-elections-under-court-order/2020/04/07/93727b34-78c7-11ea-b6ff-597f170df8f8_story.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">the election that’s already been held in Wisconsin this year</a>, voters in these cities will face long lines—meaning that some folks in line by 8 p.m. will be casting their ballots long after polls close.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And!</span></em></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Yet another thing we can expect from Republicans this year is active voter intimidation and suppression efforts at urban polling locations.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">How do we know this?</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Because one of Trump’s top reelection advisers <a href="https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/trump-adviser-expect-more-aggressive-poll-watching-in-2020/article_ac5f94cb-1d10-5d5f-b536-e4be10ece6a6.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">was caught on tape saying as much</a>.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">You see, way back in 1981, the RNC and the New Jersey GOP had off-duty policy stand at polling places in urban areas wearing armbands that read “National Ballot Security Task Force” as voters cast ballots in that year’s gubernatorial election. Some of these cops were visibly armed.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The DNC sued, alleging that this conduct was designed to intimidate Black voters.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Without admitting what they were actually up to, the RNC agreed to a consent decree restricting Republicans’ ability to engage in activities allegedly related to “ballot security.”</span></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In 2018, a judge lifted that consent decree.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And <a href="https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/trump-adviser-expect-more-aggressive-poll-watching-in-2020/article_ac5f94cb-1d10-5d5f-b536-e4be10ece6a6.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">a Trump official has promised</a> that Republicans are going to “start playing offense” and have “a much more aggressive program” in light of these newly relaxed restrictions.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I mention this in the context of Wisconsin because that’s where this admission was recorded.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But it’s fair to expect to see the GOP executing overt voter intimidation activities in cities in every swing state.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">But anyway, let's take a quick look at the other states the Trump campaign might try this “elector invalidation” scheme in.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">North Carolina</strong>, Republicans <a href="https://www.charlotteobserver.com/opinion/editorials/article245970215.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">would need to convene a special session to pull off such an antic</a>, and they lack the three-fifths majority the House and Senate required to do so (and obviously Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper isn't going to call one).</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Florida</strong>’s Republican legislators (they <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_State_Legislature" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">controlled the legislature even back then</a>) <a href="https://floridapolitics.com/archives/369561-constitutional-crisis-over-electors-bob-poe-says-floridas-been-there-done-that" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">sort of pulled this Trump stunt back in back in 2000</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The GOP governor and GOP secretary of state had already submitted the state’s “certificate of ascertainment,” but Democrats were disputing the outcome.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Republican lawmakers <a href="https://lawecommons.luc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2719&context=luclj" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">were reportedly preparing to replace Democratic electors</a> if the ensuing court battles didn’t go their way (but, obviously, SCOTUS ruled in the GOP’s favor in <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Bush v. Gore</em>).</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So we can fairly assume the current crop of Republican lawmakers won’t hesitate to do the same (and their GOP governor certainly won’t stand in their way).</span></li></ul></li></ul></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Michigan</strong>—that other state that won’t start counting mail-in ballots until Election Day itself—Republican legislative leaders haven’t yet gone on record saying they won’t seek to replace Democratic electors with their own party’s or that they won’t cast doubt on election results they don’t like.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Michigan Republicans are, however, fighting tooth and nail <a href="https://gophouse.org/posts/rep-bollin-legislature-will-fight-to-defend-michigans-election-laws" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">to not count ballots postmarked by Nov. 2 but received after Election Day</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So it’s not a stretch to imagine GOP lawmakers will seek to cast doubt on the legitimacy of those ballots.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And thus cast doubt on a narrow and/or growing Biden victory.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And the legislature here will still be in session, so Republicans are free to convene and pull all manner of elector shenanigans.</span></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Is it pretty extreme to claim that Republican legislators are likely to help Trump steal the presidential election?</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Sure. But it’s also entirely within the realm of possibility.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And Republicans in all of these states have spent the past decade doing whatever they deem necessary to hold on to power—everything from gerrymandering to passing voter suppression laws to stealing power from Democratic governors to busting the unions that used to be major parts of Democratic infrastructure in many of these states.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I’ve been watching these cats for ten years. Literally nothing they do would surprise me.</span></p><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">… including subverting the will of their own states’ voters to steal the presidency for a member of their own party.</span></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">They’ve neither feared nor faced real repercussions for their naked exercises of partisan power so far.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">So why would they start worrying about it now?</span></em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Okay, that was a super bummer, so let me at least round this out with some positive news.</span></p><div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">With everything else going on, it’s totally understandable if you didn’t notice that the nation's primary elections finally concluded last week.</span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Democracy hooray!</span></em></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This means that my extremely <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/9/24/1980121/-Morning-Digest-Democrats-are-once-again-running-more-candidates-for-state-legislatures-than-the-GOP" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">excellent Daily Kos Elections colleagues</a> have finally been able to complete the<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z3rC18LqbA2P9eJPsid7ZVly1nbX2tVOU1P5Jkv8uL8/edit#gid=2009897125" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" title="">2020 edition of the Daily Kos Elections State Legislative Open Seat Tracker</a>!<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span></p><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And the news is ... <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">good</em>!</span></span></p><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Overall, Democrats are contesting more Republican-held seats at the legislative level than the reverse.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Also, fewer Democratic incumbents have opted to retire.</span></li></ul><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">These are legitimate reasons for optimism about Democrats’ down-ballot prospects across the country!</span></p><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This year, 5,876 seats are on the ballot across 86 legislative chambers in 44 states nationwide.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">We've counted 361 Republican and 298 Democratic incumbents who are calling it quits this fall.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">An additional 113 Republicans and 82 Democrats are term-limited and will not be on their states' respective ballots this November.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And 90 Republican and 60 Democratic incumbents were defeated in primary elections this year.</span></li></ul></li></ul></div><div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><div style="box-sizing: border-box;"><div style="box-sizing: border-box;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">A detailed seat-by-seat look at each open seat and their underlying partisan lean (as measured by 2016 and 2012 presidential election results, where available) is listed on the<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z3rC18LqbA2P9eJPsid7ZVly1nbX2tVOU1P5Jkv8uL8/edit#gid=1029337076" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" title="">second tab of the chart</a>.</span></em></p></div></div></div><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">As part of this tracking, we've also kept track of the number of seats held by each party that are being left uncontested in the November elections.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">1,047 seats held by Democrats with no Republican opposition, or roughly 38% of Democratic seats on the ballot this year.</span></li><li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">At the same time, 1,013 Republican-held seats, or 33% of the GOP's total, have no Democratic challengers.</span></li></ul></li></ul><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Put another way, Democrats are fielding 2,035 candidates for seats held by Republicans, while the GOP has only put up 1,709 candidates for seats held by Democrats.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">While every year is an important year for state legislative races, the impending round of redistricting makes 2020 especially urgent.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: arial;">… but you knew that already</span></em></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"></em></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a href="https://effinbirds.tumblr.com/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJP0DZvzzgJMycc5xM3RtL0EOVtW7Z0R9xt-acRjhFFtvsvpBL80n709sD-RdrdTpmgpwqRZDnIOSaHFJYaatCHGOsS3krCmnGM_4fFcoeLqBorU4YlIsKY1ZruO_bU0bdMfoQTfl15Lm3/s320/this+year+is+really+kicking+my+ass.jpg" width="320" /></a></em></div><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></em><p></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin: 0px 0px 10px;"><br /></p>cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-27568632190821573422019-12-26T20:50:00.003-05:002019-12-26T20:50:47.175-05:00Boxing Daze edition<br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Maybe you’re celebrating the fifth night of Hanukkah, or maybe it’s Boxing Day, or maybe you’re observing the first day of Kwanzaa, or maybe it’s just another Thursday.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Regardless, the only holidays Statehouse Action observes are stuff like the first day of session, or crossover, or sine die.</span></div>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It’s super tough to find cards for those</span></em></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But no one gets those days off, and the next ones are in 2020 anyway, so here we are. Last Statehouse Action of the year.</span></div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(Of the decade, actually.)</span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And 2020 is going to bring quite a lot of said Action.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yes, there’s a presidential election, and that’s Very Important, but this November is Democrats’ last chance to break gerrymandered GOP majorities in key states before legislatures (most of them, anyway) redraw congressional and legislative districts in 2021.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Eleven months is basically a political lifetime, so there’s no telling what might happen between now and Nov. 3, but Democrats nationwide appear likely to find themselves in a better position for the upcoming round of redistricting than they were for the last one.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">… but that’s really not saying much.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(<u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">I’d make a joke about “Memory” here but I don’t think I’m allowed to now because of the </em>Cats<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"> movie</em></u>): After <a href="https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_tim_storey/gop_makes_historic_state_legislative_gains_in_2010?fullbrowser" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">the 2010 elections</a>, Republicans held majorities in 57 out of the 98 partisan legislative chambers, Democrats held majorities in just 39, and two chambers were tied.</span></div>
<br />
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This disproportionate level of chamber control led to <a href="http://www.redistrictingmajorityproject.com/?p=646" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Republicans completely controlling the drawing of 193 U.S. House districts</a> in the last round of redistricting.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><ul>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Democrats, on the other hand, controlled the drawing of just 44 congressional districts.</span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
So, with just one more election in almost every state legislature (<span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">Virginia, New Jersey, Louisiana, Maryland, and Alabama have<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2020" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.125px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">no legislative general elections in 2020</a><span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">, and the Michigan state Senate isn’t up) before Redistmageddon 2.0, where do Democrats stand in terms of majority control of statehouses?</span><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">After the 2019 elections, Democrats hold majorities in 40 chambers (including the Alaska House, which is a … </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/2/16/1835105/-Democratic-led-coalition-takes-power-in-Alaska-House-robbing-GOP-of-2018-s-lone-legislative-pickup" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; letter-spacing: 0.125px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">unique situation</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">), Republicans control 58 (Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is ostensibly nonpartisan, which is why this only adds up to 98 legislative chambers).</span></span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<br />
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><ul>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Thanks not only to these shifts in legislative chamber majorities, but also to recent reforms at the ballot box and changes in governorships, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/9/9/1873663/-A-state-by-state-guide-to-who-would-control-2020s-redistricting-today-Republicans-would-dominate" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Republicans would completely control the drawing of 37% of congressional districts</a> if new maps were drawn, like, tomorrow.</span></span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><ul><ul>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is an improvement over the 44% the GOP completely controlled in 2011, but it’s not a situation Democrats are exactly content with.</span></span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><ul><ul>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Oh, also these numbers are based on current apportionment of congressional seats among the states, which will most definitely change after next year’s Census results are accounted for.</span></span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Democrats’ best chance to knock that GOP seat percentage down next fall is in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Texas</strong>, where Democrats need to pick up nine seats to flip the state House and end GOP trifecta control there.</span></span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><ul>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Other key redistricting targets are <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Michigan</strong> (House), <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Pennsylvania</strong> (House), and <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">North Carolina</strong>, where it appears Democrats are fielding candidates <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina_State_Senate_elections,_2020" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">in every single state Senate district</a> and <a href="https://www.wral.com/filing-flurry-fills-nc-ballots/18845978/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">are reportedly on track</a> to run in almost every House district, too.</span></span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Well, there’s plenty of time to talk Redistmageddon (yes, I’m making this a thing, apologies in advance) as 2020 gets under way.</span></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the meantime, the final Statehouse Action of 2019 seems like a good place to talk about one of the most important (in my extremely not humble opinion) stories of the year.</span></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Democracy lol</em></u>: In 2018, voters didn’t just deliver six new state legislative majorities to Democrats. Americans went to the ballot box in over half a dozen states last year to approve progressive policies that didn’t stand a chance in those states’ (mostly) GOP-gerrymandered statehouses.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Those ballot measures included:</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Re-enfranchisement of voters who had been convicted of felonies (Florida)</span></span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Medicaid expansion (Utah, Idaho)</span></span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Minimum wage increase (Arkansas)</span></span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Medical marijuana legalization (Utah)</span></span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Redistricting reform (Utah, Missouri, Michigan)</span></span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But in every single one of these states, the GOP-controlled legislature took swift action this year to not only <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/7/23/1862658/-When-progressives-pass-ballot-measures-Republicans-try-to-repeal-them-and-make-them-impossible" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">effectively nullify the results of many of these elections, but also to change the rules</a> so that placing future such measures on the ballot will be MUCH harder.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Republicans in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Michigan</strong> not only passed a law in last year’s lame duck session that <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2018/12/19/clarifying-prop-3-voting-changes-michigan-house/2363379002/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">undermined a voter-approved ballot measure establishing same-day voter registration</a>, but they also eviscerated the ballot initiative process itself by effectively gerrymandering it:</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A new law requires that no more than 15% of signatures to place a measure on the ballot can come from any one of the state’s 14 congressional districts—that is, one of the congressional districts <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/7/25/1783416/-Emails-show-Michigan-GOP-bragged-about-cramming-Dem-garbage-into-gerrymandered-districts" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">gerrymandered to benefit the GOP</a> (undermining the likelihood of progressive measures getting the needed signatures to appear on the statewide ballot).</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Utah</strong>, the GOP-controlled legislature <a href="https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2019/02/17/theyve-wiped-out-prop/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">just basically repealed</a> voter-approved Medicaid expansion and legalization of medical marijuana.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Republicans also passed a series of tweaks to the referendum process that <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Changes_in_2019_to_laws_governing_ballot_measures#Utah" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">create new hurdles</a> for getting future such measures on the ballot.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Florida</strong>’s GOP governor and legislature <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/06/28/1855828/-Embracing-Jim-Crow-era-rules,-Florida-GOP-enacts-poll-tax-that-could-ban-up-to-1-million-from-voting" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">effectively imposed a poll tax</a> to hamstring the voter-approved restoration of voting rights to residents who’d been convicted of felonies.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The essentially ex post facto bill requiring Floridians to have paid all associated court fines and fees could deny the vote to up to 1.1 million—never mind that 65% of the state’s voters approved the 2018’s landmark ballot measure to re-enfranchise residents who’d been convicted of felonies.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But Sunshine State conservatives <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_2020_ballot_measures" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">aren’t stopping there</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There’s a movement afoot to raise the already incredibly high 60% threshold for passing constitutional amendments via ballot measure to two-thirds (66.67%, specifically) of the vote.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Another measure that’s closer to making the ballot next year: requiring voters to pass constitutional amendments <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Double_Election_Requirement_for_Constitutional_Amendments_Initiative_(2020)" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">with at least 60% of the vote in two general elections</a> (instead of one, as is the current requirement). </span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Republicans have already enacted <a href="https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2019/5/?Tab=BillHistory" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">a new law that imposes restrictions</a> on how workers hired to gather signatures to place proposed constitutional amendments on the ballot are paid.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Missouri</strong>, where Republicans unexpectedly <a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/missouri-measure-gutting-gerrymandering-reform-dead-for-now" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">failed this year</a>—but probably won’t next year—to gut the redistricting reform measure approved in 2018 by <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri_Amendment_1,_Lobbying,_Campaign_Finance,_and_Redistricting_Initiative_(2018)" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">over 62% of voters</a>, the GOP is also working to <a href="https://www.kfvs12.com/2019/12/18/missouri-lawmaker-wants-add-fees-up-signatures-initiative-petitions/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">undermine the ballot initiative process</a> more generally.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Republican lawmakers have filed bills for next year’s session that would</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Nearly double the current signature requirement from voters in each congressional district,</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Impose new fees on the signature gathering process, and</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Would (a la Florida) require citizen-proposed constitutional amendments to be approved by two-thirds of voters (currently, a simple majority is required).</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Oh, and while we’re talking about Missouri, here’s one for the THESE. PEOPLE. MAKE. LAWS. file:</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Earlier this month, a statue of Roman agriculture goddess Ceres was <a href="https://news.stlpublicradio.org/post/ceres-statue-returns-grace-missouri-state-capitol#stream/0" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">returned to the top of the Missouri state capitol</a>, from where it had been removed a year prior for cleaning and restoration.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But Republican Rep. Mike Moon <a href="https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/say-no-to-false-god-missouri-lawmaker-urges-governor-to/article_d5e71db5-dfa6-5f9f-98e4-b0a58dd9be92.html#1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">asked the governor to block Ceres’ reinstallation</a>, accusing him of “placing a false god on our Capitol’s dome.”</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is just the latest of Moon’s hits.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The lawmaker, who’s vying for a state Senate seat next fall, has previously attempted <a href="https://www.kansascity.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article45337596.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">to call for a special legislative session to block Syrian refugees</a> from settling in Missouri, claiming he sought to stop “the potential Islamization” of the state.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In 2017, Moon declared that <a href="https://www.news-leader.com/story/news/politics/2017/02/08/missouri-lawmakers-consider-bill-raise-marriage-age-15-17/97619460/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">marriage between 12-year-olds</a> was “something to ponder.”</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And if you really want, you can watch <a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=793937400773179" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">this Facebook video</a> he posted of himself butchering a chicken while discussing session. </span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As one does</span></em></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Speaking of truly awful politicians …</em></u> I mean, Mike Moon is bad, but at least he’s not, like, a domestic terrorist.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Washington</strong> state Rep. Matt Shea, on the other hand … well, <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/washington-state-rep-matt-shea-engaged-in-domestic-terrorism-against-the-u-s-says-state-house-inquiry/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">according to an investigation commissioned by the state House</a>, very much is.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6589242-Shea-WA-House-Report.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">108-page report</a> found that Shea “planned, engaged in and promoted a total of three armed conflicts of political violence against the United States Government in three states outside of Washington over a three-year period.”</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If you’re wondering, those <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">armed conflicts</em> were the 2016 armed takeover of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in Oregon, an armed standoff in 2014 in Nevada, and an armed conflict in Idaho in 2015.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Washington House GOP leadership immediately called on Shea to resign and suspended him from the Republican caucus.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">His fellow lawmakers are not, as yet, <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/as-washington-rep-matt-shea-refuses-to-resign-ammon-bundy-challenges-house-report/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">prepared to expel him</a> from the legislature.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Washington’s constitution requires a two-thirds majority vote for expulsion—meaning Democrats need nine Republicans to join them in voting to boot Shea.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This isn’t exactly Shea’s first brush with extremist notoriety. He’s actually a well-established right-wing militant extremist.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In 2018, two former “allies” of Shea <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/why-two-allies-of-washington-state-rep-matt-shea-turned-on-the-controversial-lawmaker/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">who’d become uncomfortable with his conduct and rhetoric</a> released a document the lawmaker had been distributing: “<a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5026577-Biblical-Basis-for-War.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Biblical Basis for War</a>.”</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It’s a sort of blueprint on how to successfully wage a “holy” war against … someone? It’s not super clear.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But this section, under “Rules of War,” is pretty damn clear (emphasis mine):</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<blockquote style="background-color: #f7f7f7; border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; line-height: 24px; margin: 20px 0px; padding: 30px 60px; width: 660px; z-index: -1;">
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Make an offer of Peace before declaring war.</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">i. Not a negotiation or compromise of righteousness.</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ii. Must surrender on terms of justice and righteousness:</span></em></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">1. Stop all abortions;</span></em></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2. No same-sex marriage;</span></em></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3. No idolatry or occultism;</span></em></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">4. No communism; and</span></em></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">5. Must obey Biblical law.</span></em></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">iii. If they yield – must pay share of work or taxes.</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">iv. If they do not yield – kill all males.</span></em></div>
</blockquote>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Shea also has used his platform as a state legislator (he was first elected in 2008) to advocate for the establishment of a 51st state out of the eastern half of Washington called “Liberty.”</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Anyway, Shea’s general scariness isn’t exactly news, but this report brings an urgency to his well-known extremism.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Smart money’s on him not resigning, expulsion seems possible but is a stretch at present, but he’s up for election next fall and faces a primary opponent in the meantime, so maybe his district’s voters decide they’ve had enough of him and show him the door (the 4th Legislative District went for <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YZRfFiCDBEYB7M18fDGLH8IrmyMQGdQKqpOu9lLvmdo/edit#gid=67208177" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Trump 56-35</a>, by the by).</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Speaking of truly awful politicians, part 2</em></u>: If you’re worried that the awful pardons of former <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Kentucky</strong> Gov. Matt Bevin, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/12/19/1906777/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-It-s-Beginning-To-Look-A-Lot-Like-Session-edition" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">discussed in this space last week</a>, might go unaddressed, well, there’s some promising news on that front.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It seems that <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/report-fbi-looking-pardons-ex-kentucky-gov-bevin-n1106961" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">the FBI is looking into those pardons</a>, which, as you may recall, include multiple murders and people convicted of sexually assaulting children.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In fact, when asked in a radio interview last week why he didn’t leave the child rapist case for his successor to consider, Bevin <a href="https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/12/19/matt-bevin-defends-child-rape-pardon-radio-interview/2704244001/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">was forced to ask for clarification</a>:</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“<i>Which one, though</i>?”</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<i>Read the rest of this week's edition <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/12/26/1907054/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Boxing-Daze-edition">here.</a></i></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
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cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-85330203249732535102019-06-13T20:30:00.003-04:002019-06-13T20:30:47.514-04:00Commonwealth of the Wicked edition<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://media.giphy.com/media/3zFcbgHoIXzykQc7vU/giphy.gif" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Good news, everyone</a>!</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Primary day in Virginia has come and gone, and now all the ballots have been set for November.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">… well, almost all.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">One local Republican committee is tearing itself apart trying to figure out<span> </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/republicans-who-helped-expand-medicaid-in-virginia-mostly-escape-primary-challenges/2019/06/04/3f7557fe-82fa-11e9-bce7-40b4105f7ca0_story.html?utm_term=.4843f4823a38" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">who’s the official nominee</a><span> </span>for the 97th House District.</span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">According to some, Del. Chris Peace was ousted by Scott Wyatt in a convention back in May. </span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But Peace and the state GOP maintain that convention lacked legitimacy and claim the incumbent won a firehouse primary earlier this month in this suburban-rural district outside of Richmond.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Depending on who prevails in this intra-party battle, Peace would be one of two Republicans who supported Medicaid expansion in Virginia last summer to fall to challengers from their right.</span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The other is Del. Bob Thomas, who barely beat Democrat Joshua Cole in HD-28 two years ago (and possibly only because of some<span> </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/judge-hears-arguments-in-tight-virginia-house-race-where-voters-got-wrong-ballots/2018/01/05/bea83732-f0be-11e7-b390-a36dc3fa2842_story.html?utm_term=.61ea4993bbad" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">erroneous ballot distribution in a split precinct</a>).</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Thomas rather solidly lost to local county supervisor Paul Milde.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Cole, by the by, is giving it another go this fall.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Medicaid expansion-supporting Sen. Emmett Hanger, on the other hand, easily dispatched challenger Tina Freitas, wife of ultra-conservative Del. Nick Freitas.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If she’d won, the pair might have been Virginia’s first married couple to serve together in the legislature.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">My colleague Jeff Singer has<span> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/6/12/1864327/-Our-new-Virginia-data-shows-just-how-rough-a-ride-GOP-are-in-for-in-November-s-legislative-elections" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">an excellent and intensive analysis</a><span> </span>of the difficulties facing the Virginia GOP this fall that you should read, but here are some highlights: </span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As an erudite reader of This Week in Statehouse Action, you probably already know that all 140 seats in the Virginia General Assembly (100 House, 40 Senate) are up this fall.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">You surely also already know that Republicans are clinging to itty-bitty majorities in both chambers: 21-19 in the Senate, 51-49 in the House of Delegates.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Those numbers already look pretty good on paper, in terms of distance to goal, but Virginia Democrats<span> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/4/10/1849107/-How-much-does-Virginia-s-new-un-gerrymandered-state-House-map-help-Democrats-A-whole-bunch" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">got another boost</a><span> </span>when a court ruled a whole slew of House districts to be unconstitutional racial gerrymanders.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The judges redrew the 25 affected districts, and many of them changed in favor of Team Blue.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In fact, the new bluest Republican-held seat may ring a bell—it’s currently represented by Del. David Yancey, who only holds it by virtue of the luck of a literal draw that should never have happened in the first place.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Shelly Simonds is back for a rematch, and this redrawn district now favored Clinton over Trump 56-39.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Other prime targets for Democrats in their quest to end decades of GOP control of the House include the Hampton Roads-area HD-76 and Northern Virginia’s HD-40.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">GOP Del. Chris Jones can’t be thrilled that his redrawn HD-76 backed Clinton 53-44 and Northam 55-44.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, as chair of the super-powerful Appropriations Committee, he has ALL THE MONEYS to spend on keeping this seat.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Republican Del. Tim Hugo’s HD-40 wasn’t touched by the re-redistricting, but it backed Clinton 53-42, favored Northam 55-44, and Hugo squeaked by with just a<span> </span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Tim_Hugo#2017" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">101-vote win</a><span> </span>in 2017.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Democrat and veteran Dan Helmer is taking him on this time around.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I’m told he will not be singing for any campaign videos (if you remember his “<a href="https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1650054988398931" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Helmer Zone</a>” bit from his congressional primary run, you’ll understand why this news bitterly disappointed me).</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But Democrats aren’t the only ones with pickup opportunities in the House, which is why flipping this chamber will be no cakewalk.</span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In fact, a couple of the Republicans ousted in 2017 are back for rematches—and they’re bringing their war chests with them.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The two districts that have me most nervous are HD-85 (48-46 Clinton), a Virginia Beach seat left open by Del. Cheryl Turpin’s run for state Senate, and NoVA’s HD-10 (50-44 Clinton), where Republican ex-Del. Randy Minchew is coming after first-term Del. Wendy Gooditis.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I’m also nervous about HD-73 (51-43 Clinton), a Richmond-area district left open by Del. Debra Rodman’s Senate ambitions with a strong GOP contender.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But let’s turn to the state Senate, where Democratic recruitment was great (Dems are contesting 35 of the chamber’s 40 seats) and the map is trending bluer every year.</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Fun fact! Clinton carried 23 of the Senate’s 40 seats in 2016.</span></em></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Flipping just one seat would give Democrats effective control of the chamber, since the Democratic lieutenant governor breaks ties in everything but budget votes.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But Democrats reeeeeeeeally need to flip at least two seats this fall. Here’s why.</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Item 1</em>: Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax. He almost certainly won’t resign, but with two women credibly on record as accusing him of sexually assault, he’s not someone Dems are eager to rely on establish effective chamber control.</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Item 2</em>: 2021. Virginia senators serve four-year terms, but the lieutenant governorship is up in just two years. Democrats’ continued dominance in statewide elections is anything but a guarantee, and a GOP LG would hand control back to the Republicans until at least 2023 (when the Senate would next be up again).</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Item 3</em>: Joe freaking Morrissey.</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Or rather, effectively Sen.-elect Joe Morrissey.</span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yup, the extremely not good human I’ve been railing about in this missive for … <a href="http://www.statehouseaction.com/2015/01/heroes-and-villains-edition.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">quite a while now</a> is returning to the Virginia legislature.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To the Senate, specifically, since he scored a pretty epic upset over Sen. Rosalyn Dance on Tuesday (56-44%), and no Republican has filed to run in SD-16.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">You may be wondering why this is bad.</span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Well, a 20-20 tie contingent on a vote from someone like Joe Morrissey isn’t much of a tie at all.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Rather, it’s an invitation for a <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2012/06/muppet-theory-explains-humanity/327133/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">chaos Muppet</a> to wreak havoc.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It gives a man who’s loyal only to himself the opportunity to repeatedly demonstrate that loyalty—his own party be damned.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It gives someone who clearly believes the rules don’t apply to him the chance to destabilize state government if the mood strikes him.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And if you think this a harsh characterization of Joe Morrissey, then … well, you don’t know Joe.</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But I grew up in the Richmond media market. I’ve worked in and around Virginia politics my entire adult life.</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So let me tell you about Joe Morrissey.</span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">An attorney by trade (never mind that his law license has been repeatedly revoked, as detailed below), Morrissey began making a notorious name for himself in the 1990s, and he really hasn’t let off the gas since.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">His notable misadventures <a href="https://openjurist.org/305/f3d/211/in-re-joseph-d-morrissey" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">include</a>:</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Going to jail for writing a threatening letter to a judge in 1991.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Getting in a<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="http://www.richmond.com/news/local/central-virginia/charles-city/article_c5dde8fb-6bf5-50ef-9fe7-6f5b6047a546.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;">fist fight</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>with opposing counsel, also in 1991.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Settling a rape case <a href="https://www.vsb.org/site/news/item/morrissey-reinstatement-petition" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">without the consent of the victim</a> in 1993.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Having his law license suspended for six months in 1993.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Going to jail for 90 days, followed by three years of probation, for violating a federal court rule prohibiting making public statements about witnesses in 1999.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Having his law license suspended for three years in 1999.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Violating that three-year probation in 2000 by attempting to lie about his community service hours (Habitat for Humanity!) and then lying to his probation officer about trying to lie.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Losing his Virginia law license entirely in 2003 (he'd already lost his license to practice in federal court in 2001).</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Teaching trial advocacy and becoming<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2006/04/26/1145861419459.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;">a valued mentor</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>to over 100 Crown prosecutors in Australia between 2003 and 2006—until the Australians realized he'd been deemed unfit to practice law in his home country.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Returning to the United States, getting elected to the Virginia House of Delegates in 2007, getting his Virginia law license back in 2012, and brandishing an AK-47 on the House floor in 2013.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Getting indicted for allegedly having sex with a minor, taking an Alford plea, going to jail, resigning his House seat, winning re-election to his House seat in the special election to replace himself, and attending the legislative session under a work-release program accommodated by his jail sentence.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Instead of running for re-election to the House, he made a run for Dance’s Senate seat.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Running for Richmond mayor in a seven-way race that<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://richmondmagazine.com/news/field-notes/baliles-drops-out/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">a leading candidate dropped out of for the express purpose of preventing Morrissey from winning</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>by splitting the vote.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">During the race, and while the former minor with whom he’d had sex and later married was pregnant, a client Morrissey represented alleged<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.richmond.com/news/local/city-of-richmond/article_85f4de0a-d387-5a69-b527-8209c6a72cf2.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">he’d sent her sexually suggestive texts and exposed himself to her in his office</a>. (Morrissey copped to the "flirtatious” texts but denied showing her his junk.)</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Getting his own goddamn<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://wjfnradio.com/the-fighting-joe-morrissey-show/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">radio talk show</a>.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Having his law license, which the Virginia Supreme Court had restored while he was in the House of Delegates despite the recommendation of the Virginia State Bar,<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://wtvr.com/2018/06/15/joe-morrisseys-law-license-revoked-for-the-second-time/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">revoked yet again</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>in 2018.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So, yeah, Morrissey clearly doesn’t think that the rules that govern normal human behavior apply to him.</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And now this guy is going to be making laws.</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And that’s bad enough. But the bottom line is that the Democrats in the Virginia Senate can’t afford to rely on Morrissey for, like, anything.</span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But the good news is that four of GOP-held Senate seats Democrats are targeting in November were won by Clinton in 2016.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Meanwhile, only four incumbent Democrats are facing opposition, and the seriousness of some of those candidates is … debatable.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There’s more good news for Dems out of Tuesday’s primaries, too.</span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In Richmond-area SD-10, Democrats have the chance to elect <a href="https://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/joe-morrissey-stuns-sen-rosalyn-dance-and-rebukes-democratic-establishment/article_8bc498da-522b-5999-9308-8c2a91f6303c.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">the Senate’s first Muslim woman</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And since the district went for Clinton 53-40 and Northam 57-42, Ghazala Hashmi’s chances aren’t too shabby.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Also, statewide primary turnout indicates Democrats still have voter enthusiasm on their side. <a href="https://www.dlcc.org/press/rapid-response-rslc-grasping-show-signs-life-virginia" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Reportedly</a> over 70,000 more Democrats than Republicans went to the polls in Virginia on Tuesday.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">tl;dr: It’s not going to be easy.</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And it sure as hell isn’t going to be cheap.</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But Democrats have a pretty good shot at flipping both legislative chambers and taking trifecta control of Virginia government for the first time since the early 1990s.</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Stay tuned for updates as the cycle progresses.</span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And especially as the special legislative session to consider gun safety measures <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/northam-sets-july-9-for-special-session-to-consider-gun-control-legislation/2019/06/07/03f210b2-8937-11e9-98c1-e945ae5db8fb_story.html?utm_term=.08d15f5ac1f1" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">convenes on July 9</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="font-family: "open sans";">
<i style="font-family: "open sans";">Read the rest of this week's edition <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/6/13/1864580/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Commonwealth-of-the-Wicked-edition">here</a>.</i></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: "open sans"; margin-bottom: 10px;">
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cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-6826932539669216602019-05-23T19:17:00.002-04:002019-05-23T19:17:44.318-04:00GTFO edition<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sigh.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What a couple of weeks, huh?</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">More and more abortion bans passing in GOP-controlled states.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Floods and deadly severe weather across the country.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The end of Game of Thrones.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But I guess we have the consolation of being <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">this</em> close to a long weekend … ?</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hey, it’s something, at least.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But before we GTFO of work or town or whatever, here’s an update on the other garbage happening around the nation.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">GTFO of the Speakership</em></u>: Two weeks ago, I wrote <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/5/9/1856352/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Dear-Mama-edition" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">in this space</a> about a bizarre and troubling saga coming out of the <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Tennessee</strong>House speaker’s office.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It all started when information came to light indicating that Republican Speaker Glen Casada’s office may have<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.newschannel5.com/news/newschannel-5-investigates/did-house-speakers-office-attempt-to-frame-activist-da-asks-for-special-prosecutor-to-investigate" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">tried to frame a black activist</a> for violating a no-contact order with the express purpose of getting him thrown in jail.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Justin Jones is a Vanderbilt divinity student who’s been pushing Tennessee GOP leadership for years on issues related to voting rights, as well as the removal of Confederate Gen. and KKK “grand wizard” Nathan Bedford Forrest’s bust from the statehouse.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Former GOP House Speaker Beth Harwell routinely met with Jones and his fellow activists to hear their concerns.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">No such meetings have happened under Casada’s leadership.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In late February, Jones was arrested after someone threw a cup into the speaker’s own personal elevator.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Jones was released on bond on the condition he have no contact with Casada.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">He’s obeyed the order and hasn’t set foot in the capitol for the past few months.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But Casada’s then-chief of staff, Cade Cothren, seemed to really want to take away Jones’ freedom.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Why else would he have shared a copy of an email with the DA purporting to show that Jones sent this email to Cothren and copied Casada after he’d been released on bond, thus violating the no-contact order?</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The thing is, Jones has a copy of his original email, and that email shows that it was sent<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">before</em><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>this arrest or the subsequent no-contact order.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Confronted with evidence of the doctored date on the email shared with the DA’s office, the speaker’s office claimed there was a lag in terms of when the email was delivered versus when it was sent due to “a security issue.”</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Thankfully, the DA has stopped trying to throw Jones in jail over this.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Was this apparent malfeasance enough to take down a powerful speaker and his chief of staff?</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Nah.</span></em></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But enter one “former acquaintance,” an unidentified person with whom Cothren and Casada had been exchanging text messages for years.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">He (the nature of some of these messages makes it clear we’re talking about a dude here, so I’m gonna run with that pronoun) decided to share texts from Cothren with a Tennessee TV station, WTVF—texts that demonstrated Cothren’s outright racist sentiments, signaling that he’s totally the type of a-hole who’d lie to get a black man thrown in jail.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Cothren first tried to claim the texts had been fabricated.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Then, when WTVF confronted him with texts from that same acquaintance in which he bragged about<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.newschannel5.com/news/newschannel-5-investigates/tn-house-speakers-chief-of-staff-admits-past-drug-use-confirms-text-messages" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">snorting cocaine in his legislative offices</a>, Cothren admitted they were real.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Casada stood by his man at this point, claiming that Cothren came to him about his personal struggles—including a drug problem—a few years ago and is working towards “redemption.”</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But that “former acquaintance” apparently wasn’t done.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Still more<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2019/05/06/house-speaker-glen-casada-cade-cothren-sent-sexual-texts-women/1122490001/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">incriminating texts surfaced</a>.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And this batch was … bad. It was super bad.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In these texts, the speaker’s top aide:</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Solicited nude photos and oral sex from an intern</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sought sex with a lobbyist</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Referred to various women in demeaning or sexually explicit ways</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And so forth, and so on.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And Speaker Casada—who was married at the time (<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">gee, wonder why that didn’t last</em>)—participated in some of these text exchanges, making gross comments about touching and intercourse with women.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After the article on these texts ran in<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">The Tennessean</em>, Cothren fell on his sword and resigned.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But pressure on Casada continued to build.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">His own caucus <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/tennessees-house-speaker-resign-no-confidence-vote-141914435.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">began to turn on him</a>, and Republican leaders demanded he resign the speakership.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Just this past Monday, GOP House members voted 45-24 (not even close—<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">woof</em>) that they no longer had confidence in his ability to lead the chamber.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On Tuesday, Casada announced he’d be resigning his post as speaker (but not his seat in the legislature).</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">GTFO of My Uterus</em></u>: Unless you’ve been in a coma for the past few weeks, you’ve heard about at least one of the many abortion bans making their way through GOP-controlled statehouses.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Here’s a quick rundown of <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/state-abortion-bans-2019-signed-effect/story?id=63172532" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">what is or is about to be shitty state law</a>:</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Alabama</strong>: Outright ban, signed into law, no exceptions for rape or incest.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Georgia</strong>: So-called “heartbeat” ban, which is just an outright ban with a stupid fucking bow on it to discourage people from calling it an outright ban.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The notion of a “fetal heartbeat” is itself a total (and deliberate) misnomer: At six weeks, when this law would apply—before many women even know they’re pregnant—a fetus <a href="https://drjengunter.com/2016/12/11/dear-press-stop-calling-them-heartbeat-bills-and-call-them-fetal-pole-cardiac-activity-bills/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">doesn’t have anything resembling a heart</a> but rather only a “a 4 mm thickening next to a yolk sac,” and the “beat” is only electrical activity.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Signed into law, <a href="https://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/news/2019/05/14/alabama-abortion-georgia-abortion-law-ban-heartbeat-bill/3669043002/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">exceptions for rape or incest</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Ohio</strong>: Same as Georgia, except <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ohio-abortion-heartbeat-bill-pregnant-11-year-old-rape-victim-barred-abortion-after-new-ohio-abortion-bill-2019-05-13/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">no exceptions</a> for rape or incest.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Kentucky</strong>: Same as Georgia, except <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-congress-abortion-ban-exceptions-republicans-oppose-20190516-story.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">no exceptions</a> for rape or incest.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Mississippi</strong>: Same as Georgia, except <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-congress-abortion-ban-exceptions-republicans-oppose-20190516-story.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">no exceptions</a> for rape or incest.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Oh, and one of the Republicans who voted to ban abortions was arrested this week for punching his wife in the face because she [[checks notes]] <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/05/21/mcleod-lawmaker-resign-speaker-gunn-assault-wife-domestic-violence/3760945002/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">didn’t get naked fast enough when he wanted to have sex with her</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I cannot fucking even</span></em></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Louisiana</strong>: Not law yet, but it’s passed the legislature and Democratic (wtf bro) Gov. John Bel Edwards says he plans to sign it.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Same as Georgia, except no exceptions for rape or incest.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Missouri</strong>: Not law yet, but it’s passed the legislature and GOP Gov. Mike Parson says he plans to sign it.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This bill bans abortions after eight weeks instead of six, but since the state has managed to <a href="https://www.kcur.org/post/missouri-down-one-abortion-provider-heres-background-complicated-legal-case#stream/0" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">regulate every abortion provider save one out of existence</a>, it might as well be the same thing.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/missouri-s-house-passes-bill-banning-abortions-8-weeks-pregnancy-n1006871" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">No exceptions</a> for rape or incest.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Oh, and this bill includes a trigger provision that will totally outlaw abortion in the state if <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Roe v. Wade</em> is overturned.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But wait, there’s more!</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Despite the fact that laws banning abortion at 20 weeks have been ruled unconstitutional by federal courts, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Arkansas</strong> and <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Utah</strong> passed laws this year outlawing abortion at 18 weeks.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And Missouri didn’t come up with the idea for a “trigger” ban on its own:</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Arkansas</strong>, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Kentucky</strong>, and <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Tennessee</strong> have fresh laws on their books that will automatically outlaw abortion if <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Roe v. Wade</em> is overturned.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It’s cold comfort, but fwiw, none of these new or pending laws have taken effect or will take effect in the near future.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">They’re pretty obviously unconstitutional, so they’re being blocked pending legal action—which will likely culminate in an eventual Supreme Court challenge to <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Roe</em>itself.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But I think I speak for a whole heckuva lot of women when I say I don’t enjoy having a sword of Damocles hanging over my reproductive organs for the next few years.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">One thing the states listed above have in common is that they’re all run by Republicans (with the lone exception of Louisiana—seriously, wtf dude).</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">States run by Democrats have been pushing reproductive healthcare rights in a different direction—specifically, a good one.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Nevada</strong>, where the protections of <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Roe v. Wade</em> are already enshrined in state law, Democrats are close to passing a bill that would <a href="https://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2019/05/21/lawmakers-ok-abortion-decriminalization-bill/3757940002/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">decriminalize all abortion in the state</a>.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Democrats in<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> Vermont</strong> are trying to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/21/us/vermont-abortion-bill-h57.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">outlaw all government interference</a>with the already pretty well-protected right to access abortion procedures in the state.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">New York</strong>’s expansive Reproductive Health Act was <a href="https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/politics/albany/2019/02/01/abortion-law-ny-what-reproductive-health-act-does-and-doesnt-do/2743142002/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">signed into law in January</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
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<i style="font-family: "open sans";">Read the rest of this week's edition <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/5/23/1857934/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-GTFO-edition">here</a>.</i></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: "open sans"; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<i>Sign up to have This Week in Statehouse Action delivered hot and fresh to your inbox each week <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/campaigns/forms/dont-miss-a-single-statehouse-action-update">here</a>.</i></div>
cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-75383825007894066762019-05-09T20:01:00.001-04:002019-05-09T20:01:19.031-04:00Dear Mama edition<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Happy almost Mother’s Day!</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While many of us will take a pause this weekend to thank maternal figures in our lives, Republicans in state legislatures are busy doing things their moms are probably pretty ashamed of.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I mean, I know +my+ mom would be pretty embarrassed of me if I went around trying to keep people from voting or exercising their right to determine what they do with their own bodies or trying to throw student activists in jail or …</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Well, you get the idea.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKuc4nfJByc" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Mama Tried</em></u></a>: … presumably, to teach her Republican <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Tennessee</strong> sons to not be garbage humans.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">woof</em> did she fail.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A fews weeks ago, I <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/4/18/1850812/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Session-Is-Coming-edition" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">wrote in this space</a>about the heinous anti-voter registration bill making its way through the Volunteer State legislature.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bad news, everyone: It passed, and the governor <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/05/03/voter-registration-groups-sue-block-tennessee-law-with-tough-penalties-signup-mistakes/?utm_term=.977f2b92ac67" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">signed it into law</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In case you’ve forgotten just how bad this new law is, allow me to refresh your recollection.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The law would<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/16/us/politics/tennessee-voter-registration.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">fine community groups conducting voter registration drives</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>that turn in incomplete applications.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The fine, a civil penalty, would be levied against groups who file 100 or more so-called “deficient” voter registration forms, starting at $150 in each county were a “violation” occurred.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A person or group that filed more more than 500 incomplete applications could be fined up to $10,000.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And as if that weren’t sufficient discouragement for folks looking to register voters, this bill also criminalizes the practice of setting a minimum goal of registration forms for workers to collect. Violators could face a fine of up to $2,500 and a year in jail.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This law creates some of the most aggressive voter registration penalties in the country.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tennessee already<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/13/politics/tennessee-voter-registration-drive-bill-trnd/index.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">ranks 45th</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>out of 50 states in terms of its voter registration rate, so suppressing registration even further seems pretty bonkers.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">… until you remember that Tennessee is run by Republicans and that Republicans really can’t stand things like “expanding the electorate” and “more people voting.”</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Several groups that champion ballot box access, including NAACP and ACLU, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/05/03/voter-registration-groups-sue-block-tennessee-law-with-tough-penalties-signup-mistakes/?utm_term=.977f2b92ac67" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">are already</a> <a href="https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2019/05/09/tennessee-faces-aclu-lawsuit-over-voter-registration-law/1151831001/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">suing over</a> the new law.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But that’s not the only bullshit afoot in Tennessee.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Because it sure looks like the House speaker’s office <a href="https://www.newschannel5.com/news/newschannel-5-investigates/did-house-speakers-office-attempt-to-frame-activist-da-asks-for-special-prosecutor-to-investigate" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">tried to frame a black activist</a>for violating a no-contact order with the express purpose of getting him thrown in jail.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Also, Speaker Glen Casada’s chief of staff seems to be racist as hell.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And otherwise pretty awful.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Justin Jones is a Vanderbilt divinity student who’s been pushing GOP leadership on issues related to voting rights, as well as the removal of Confederate Gen. and KKK grand wizard Nathan Bedford Forrest’s bust from the statehouse.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Former GOP House Speaker Beth Harwell routinely met with Jones and his fellow activists to hear their concerns.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">No such meetings have happened under Casada’s leadership.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In late February, Jones was arrested after someone threw a cup into the speaker’s own personal elevator.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Jones was released on bond on the condition he have no contact with Casada.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">He’s obeyed the order and hasn’t set foot in the capitol for the past few months.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But Speaker Casada’s chief of staff, Cade Cothren, seems to really want to take away Jones’ freedom.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Why else would he have shared a copy of an email with the DA purporting to show that Jones sent this email to Cothren and copied Casada after he’d been released on bond, thus violating the no-contact order?</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The thing is, Jones has a copy of his original email, and that email shows that it was sent <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">before</em> this arrest or the subsequent no-contact order.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Confronted with evidence of the doctored date on the email shared with the DA’s office, the speaker’s office claims there was a lag in terms of when the email was delivered vs. when it was sent due to “a security issue.”</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Thankfully, the DA has stopped trying to throw Jones in jail over the issue.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Cothren’s apparently earned the ire of someone else, though.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A “former acquaintance” shared text messages from Cothren with a Tennessee TV station that demonstrate Cothren’s outright racist sentiments.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But wait—there’s more!</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Cothren first tried to claim the texts had been fabricated, but when that TV station confronted him with texts from that same acquaintance in which he bragged about <a href="https://www.newschannel5.com/news/newschannel-5-investigates/tn-house-speakers-chief-of-staff-admits-past-drug-use-confirms-text-messages" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">snorting cocaine in his legislative offices</a>, he admitted they were real.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Casada, for his part, stood by his man, claiming that Cothren came to him about his personal struggles, including a drug problem, a few years ago and is working towards “redemption.”</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But that was last week.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Over the weekend, still more <a href="https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2019/05/06/house-speaker-glen-casada-cade-cothren-sent-sexual-texts-women/1122490001/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">incriminating texts surfaced</a>.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This batch had Cothren:</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Soliciting nude photos and oral sex from an intern</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Seeking sex with a lobbyist</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Referring to various women in demeaning or sexually explicit ways</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And so forth, and so on.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And Speaker Casada—who was married at the time (<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">gee, wonder why that didn’t last</em>)—participated in some of these text exchanges, making gross comments about touching and intercourse with women.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After the article on these texts ran in <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">The Tennessean</em> on Monday, Cothren fell on his sword and resigned that night.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Fun fact! Cothren was pulling in almost $200,000 per year of taxpayer-funded salary!</span></em></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vimZj8HW0Kg" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Mama Said Knock You Out</em></u></a>: … of voting eligibility right after you finally got it back, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/5/3/1855208/-Embracing-Jim-Crow-era-rules-Florida-GOP-passes-poll-tax-that-could-ban-up-to-1-million-from-voting" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">according to <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Florida</strong> Republicans</a>.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">You may recall that, last November, Floridians voted by a landslide (65-35) to approve a 2018 constitutional amendment to<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1810578/-Florida-voters-smash-a-legacy-of-Jim-Crow-and-restore-voting-rights-to-more-than-1-million-citizens" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;">restore voting rights for as many as 1.4 million citizens</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>who had fully completed their felony sentences.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But because we all know by now that Republicans just can’t stand it when more people vote, Republican legislators have sent GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2019/7066" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">a bill</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> (that he’s <a href="https://www.gainesville.com/news/20190509/democrats-rip-desantis-after-he-pledges-to-sign-voting-bill" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">pledged to sign</a>) </span>that would try to keep the vast majority of those citizens disenfranchised.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">How?</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By being sneaky, duplicitous bastards and <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/05/florida-republican-senate-ron-desantis-amendment-4-felon-voting-rights.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">imposing a measure straight out of the Jim Crow playbook: poll taxes</a>, basically. The measure would <span style="box-sizing: border-box;">require the payment of not just restitution, but also all court-related </span>fines and “user fees” courts impose on defendants upon conviction.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">These user fees are charged for such things as</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">applying for a public defender</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">receiving medical treatment in jail</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">participating in drug abuse treatment programs.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Those who receive probation face “surcharges” for</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">halfway house supervision and room-and-board</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">electronic monitoring</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">drug testing.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Convicted defendants are also charged fees to fund court costs and crime prevention programs.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And all this is on top of the up to $500,000 in criminal fines many face.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Many individuals convicted of felonies can never fully repay these exorbitant fees.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finding employment post-incarceration is challenging enough, and few can afford to remit massive chunks of their pay back to the state.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"></span>Florida's felony disenfranchisement system itself<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/story/2018/11/6/1810578/-Florida-voters-smash-a-legacy-of-Jim-Crow-and-restore-voting-rights-to-more-than-1-million-citizens" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;">is a remnant of Jim Crow</a>: It<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/aclu-slams-florida-amendment-4-poll-tax-bill-spb-7086-11129838" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;">was given its modern form</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>shortly after the Civil War<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article95105602.html" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;">as part of a way of keeping black citizens from voting</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>in a state that<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.tampabay.com/news/perspective/floridas-history-of-suppressing-blacks-votes/2146546" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;">was nearly one-half black at the time</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By demanding that citizens pay all court fines and fees, Republicans could effectively roll back most of the 2018 amendment.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The potential impact of the Republicans’ diabolical policy is thus:</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Of the 1.4 million Floridians who<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">regained</em><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>the right to vote via Amendment 4, over 1.1 million people would<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">lose</em><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>that right—and they’d be disproportionately black.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLQYkbzSz5s" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Mama Told Me (Not To Come)</em></u></a>: … look I’m sorry but Republicans keep pushing laws imposing their bullshit will on women’s bodies so yeah they should keep it in their damn pants until they butt out of our private and medical decisions. In the meantime, I’ll make unfortunate sex puns.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We’ve all heard about the <a href="https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-heartbeat-law-revives-culture-war-that-the-gop-could-lose/YGG2OolxhFnArND8Nxk22K/" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">unconstitutional abortion ban Republican Gov. Kemp just signed</a> in Georgia (no, it is NOT a “heartbeat bill”; that’s just a garbage euphemism for “banning abortion before most women have any damn reason to know they’re even pregnant and journalists should stop using it), so I really don’t feel the need to flog it here.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But maybe not everyone’s heard about a bill in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Ohio</strong> that would ban most forms of birth control.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It's a popular one, too—one fifth of the members of the state House (do I even need to tell you they’re all Republicans?) have signed on to <a href="https://www.legislature.ohio.gov/legislation/legislation-summary?id=GA133-HB-182" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">House Bill 182</a>, which would <a href="https://radio.wosu.org/post/new-ohio-bill-would-ban-most-private-insurance-coverage-abortion#stream/0" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">prevent most insurance companies from providing medical coverage for abortion procedures</a> (including in cases of rape or incest).</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Oh, and it also lays out a medically impossible procedure, because its <a href="http://www.ohiohouse.gov/john-becker/biography" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">very much non-doctor author</a> thinks that life-threatening ectopic pregnancies (where a fertilized egg implants outside the uterus and will absolutely kill a woman if not removed) can just be plucked out of wherever they happen to be and re-implanted inside of the uterus.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Which is extremely not a thing.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Oh, and it also bans birth control that could stop a fertilized egg from implanting.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Which includes the pill, IUDs, and most other forms of birth control that aren’t, like, condoms.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The bill has had its first committee hearing.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Oh, and in case you’d forgotten, Ohio already has its very own six-week abortion ban.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<i>Read the rest of this week's edition <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/5/9/1856352/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Dear-Mama-edition">here</a>.</i></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<i>Sign up to have This Week in Statehouse Action delivered hot and fresh to your inbox each week <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/campaigns/forms/dont-miss-a-single-statehouse-action-update">here</a>.</i></div>
cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-22129554968028631732018-12-21T13:01:00.003-05:002018-12-21T13:01:50.394-05:00The 12 Days of Session edition (parts 1 & 2)<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For those of you who observe and are keeping track, Christmas is a mere five days hence.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Is your shopping done? Gifts wrapped? Packages shipped? Booze bought?</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(Remember, stuff’s closed on Tuesday. Stock up.)</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yes, even this close to a pagan holiday cleverly co-opted by Christians, there’s still statehouse action galore.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So, yeah, I guess it’s time to start singing that classic holiday tune: The 12 Days of Session.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What, you don’t know it?</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Here, I’ll hum a few bars, you’ll get the hang of it in no time.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On the 12th day of session, my legislator gave to me ...</span></em></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">12, the number of seats Minnesota House Democrats needed to flip to win the chamber (they flipped 18)</em></u>: In any other week, this item would have gotten something along the lines of a “#Demsindisarra … wait no the other thing” header, but this will have to do.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Because being <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">soundly drubbed at the ballot box</a> in November wasn’t enough of an injury to <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Minnesota</strong> House Republicans, some members of their own caucus are adding a solid dose of insult.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Four rural GOP members <a href="https://blogs.mprnews.org/capitol-view/2018/12/renegade-house-members-split-from-gop-caucus/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">blindsided their colleagues late last Friday when they announced their plan to split from their ilk</a> and form the extremely creatively named “New House Republican Caucus.”</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Unfortunately for their former fellow caucus members, these defections will further undermine their representation on House committees. <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Womp womp.</em></span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">11, the time of night Michigan Republicans passed a bill to restrict ballot measures</em></u>: Late Wednesday night, the<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> Michigan</strong> House approved a measure that effectively gerrymanders the signature-gathering process for ballot measures.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Currently, citizens must gather hundreds of thousands of signatures to get a measure on the ballot (the total varies based on the type of measure and the number of votes cast for governor in the most recent election—over the past decade, this figure has <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Signature_requirements_for_ballot_measures_in_Michigan" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">ranged from 157,827 to over 380,126 signatures</a>).</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Because of high turnout in this year’s gubernatorial contest, the number of signatures required to get a measure on the ballot for the next four years will be bigger than ever.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Currently, these signatures can come from any voter anywhere in the state.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But the law House Republicans just passed in the lame duck session requires that no more than 15 percent of the signatures come from any one of Michigan’s 14 congressional districts.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That’s not only a garbage requirement intended to make signature-gathering harder by preventing canvassers from racking up totals in accessible and densely populated urban areas, but it also effectively gerrymanders the ballot measure process by creating arbitrary caps based on Michigan's <a href="https://images.dailykos.com/images/622045/original/Michigan_Congressional_Popular_Vote_2012-2018.png?1544746410" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">extremely GOP-skewing congressional map</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">10, the day of April GOP Gov. Matt Bevin signed this terrible legislation</em></u>: On Thursday, the <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Kentucky</strong> Supreme Court <a href="https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article221665830.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">struck down the controversial law</a> the GOP-controlled legislature rammed through during the final days of this year’s legislative session that would have gutted teachers’ pensions.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The anti-pension measure was attached to a completely unrelated bill about sewage treatment on the 57th day of Kentucky’s 60-day legislative session.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As a sewage bill, it had received public hearings and the necessary floor readings.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As a pension-attacking Trojan horse, it had not.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Because the anti-pension measure did not receive the required three readings on three separate days on the House floor, the court ruled it in violation of the state constitution, which specifically requires those three pesky readings.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: #3c3736; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;">This doesn’t mean that the GOP-controlled legislature won’t try to pass the measure again—properly, this time.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But if <a href="https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article207682419.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">the thousands of education supporters who mobilized against the proposal last time it came up</a> are any indication, lawmakers will do so in the face of serious public opposition.<u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">9, the total the numbers two and seven in North Dakota House District 27 add up to</em></u>: Sure, Election Day was over a month ago, but that’s no reason to not give props to <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">North Dakota</strong> Rep.-elect Ruth Buffalo.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">She’s the first Native American Democratic woman elected to the state’s legislature, which is extremely important all by itself.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But more deliciously, Buffalo <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/17/1805092/-Contribute-to-North-Dakota-Native-Vote-to-disrupt-Republican-voter-suppression" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">ousted the Republican lawmaker behind the legislation aimed at disenfranchising the state’s Native voters</a> by requiring a new kind of ID to cast ballots in this year’s election.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Notably, the new law backfired.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Daily Kos was one of several organizations who helped <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/17/1805092/-Contribute-to-North-Dakota-Native-Vote-to-disrupt-Republican-voter-suppression" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">raise tons of money</a> to support getting Native Americans the new IDs they needed to vote.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the end, turnout in counties that are home to three of the state’s largest Native populations increased dramatically over the 2014 midterms—it was up 105 percent in Sioux County, home to the Standing Rock Indian Reservation.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; margin-bottom: 10px; text-decoration-line: underline;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-line: underline;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">9, the total the numbers two and seven in North Dakota House District 27 add up to</em></u>: Sure, Election Day was over a month ago, but that’s no reason to not give props to <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">North Dakota</strong> Rep.-elect Ruth Buffalo.</span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">She’s the first Native American Democratic woman elected to the state’s legislature, which is extremely important all by itself.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But more deliciously, Buffalo <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/17/1805092/-Contribute-to-North-Dakota-Native-Vote-to-disrupt-Republican-voter-suppression" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important;" target="_blank">ousted the Republican lawmaker behind the legislation aimed at disenfranchising the state’s Native voters</a> by requiring a new kind of ID to cast ballots in this year’s election.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Notably, the new law backfired.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Daily Kos was one of several organizations who helped <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/17/1805092/-Contribute-to-North-Dakota-Native-Vote-to-disrupt-Republican-voter-suppression" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important;" target="_blank">raise tons of money</a> to support getting Native Americans the new IDs they needed to vote.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the end, turnout in counties that are home to three of the state’s largest Native populations increased dramatically over the 2014 midterms—it was up 105 percent in Sioux County, home to the Standing Rock Indian Reservation.</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
</em></span></span><div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">8, the day of January Floridians convicted of felonies were supposed to get their right to vote back</em></u>: In November, 64.5 percent of Floridians voted to end a terrible and racist practice: permanent denial of the right to vote to anyone convicted of a felony.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Republicans in Florida dgaf.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The current state government—run by Republicans—has <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-lawmakers-might-not-restore-voting-rights-to-felons-2018-12" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">put implementation of the new constitutional amendment “on hold”</a> until the new governor—also a Republican—is sworn in.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">GOP lawmakers want to see if they can mess with the amendment before it restores voting rights to (among others) the 23 percent of Florida’s black adults who were convicted of felonies and have completed their sentences.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Gov.-elect DeSantis claims that the (GOP-controlled) legislature must approve “implementing language” before the amendment takes effect.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Amendment 4 is self-executing—it needs no legislative action.</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">7, the Kansas Senate district represented by a GOP party-switcher</em></u>: <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Kansas</strong> state Senator Barbara Bollier announced Wednesday that <a href="https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article222990385.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">she’s leaving the Republican Party and will caucus with Democrats</a> henceforth.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bollier had already earned her now-former colleagues’ ire when she endorsed the Democratic candidate for governor, as well as some Democratic legislative candidates, earlier this year.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">She credits the Kansas GOP’s anti-LGBT platform and Donald Trump with pushing her to make the jump.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bollier will be up for re-election in 2020.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">6, Ann Arbor’s rank in Michigan cities according to population size</em></u>: Two years ago, Ann Arbor began an animal control program that used sterilization to bring down exploding deer populations.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Michigan</strong> lawmakers voted Wednesday to take that option away from localities and <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2018/12/13/legislature-deer-sterilization/2277124002/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">force hunting on them as the only way to cull herds</a>.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ann Arbor used hunting to reduce its deer population, too, but in densely populated areas, capturing, sterilizing, and returning the deer seemed like a better option than letting people shoot guns near lots of other people.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2018/12/13/legislature-deer-sterilization/2277124002/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">“offended” some legislators</a>, who maybe thought they don’t already have enough deer to shoot (<a href="https://www.bridgemi.com/guest-commentary/michigan-hunters-dont-need-more-deer" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">they do</a>), or veterinarians were taking jobs away from hunters, or something.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">One lawmaker even saw it as a sort of … cultural exchange program.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">GOP Rep. Triston Cole, who sponsored the bill prohibiting deer sterilization programs, regards this as <span style="box-sizing: border-box;">“a wonderful opportunity for urban residents to learn about quality deer management and the benefits of hunting to the entire state.”</span></span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
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<em style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;"><a href="https://splinternews.com/michigan-state-legislature-let-the-deer-fuck-1831075690" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ctfo</span></a></em></div>
</div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">5 special legislative session daaaaaaaaaays</em></u>: So, remember that terrible teacher pension-gutting measure <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Kentucky</strong> Gov. Matt Bevin signed on April 10 that was ruled unconstitutional and thrown out on its proverbial ear last week?</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bevin tried to call a five-day <a href="https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article223287120.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">special session on Monday night to force a new version through the legislature</a> before the end of the year.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But leadership in the GOP-controlled legislature couldn’t get it together.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hell, Bevin didn’t even send a new bill to lawmakers for review until Monday night.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">He confessed on Tuesday that he hadn’t read the full legislation himself, which was allegedly just a version of the original anti-pension measure with a few bits removed to make it more palatable to the court it would inevitably be challenged in.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After convening for just two days (costing taxpayers $130,000 in the process), Republicans couldn’t muster the votes needed to move forward, so they threw up their hands and went home.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">4, the total the numbers two and two in House Bill 2002 add up to</em></u>: A Republican lawmaker in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Arizona</strong> is still pretty pissed at all the educators and their supporters who descended on the capitol last April with the temerity to protest inadequate funding for public education.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Rep. Mark Finchem has introduced legislation that would “<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">prohibit teachers in taxpayer-supported schools from engaging in political ideological or religious advocacy in the classrooms.”</span></span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The thing is, this bill seeks to address a nonexistent problem.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Why doesn’t it exist?</span></span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Because it’s <a href="https://www.azleg.gov/viewdocument/?docName=https://www.azleg.gov/ars/15/00511.htm" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">already against the law</a>.</span></span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But more problematic is the part of the legislation that seeks to subjectively censor teachers’ instruction that may involve current events.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The bill prohibits teachers from addressing "any controversial issue that is not germane to the topic of the course or academic subject being taught."</span></span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The bill further defines a "controversial issue" as one that is a point in a political party platform at the local, state, or federal level, but it offers no guidance as to who or what determines “germaneness” or how this would be enforced (snitches get Cs?).</span></span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yeah, my JD’s a little dusty but I don’t see this one working out too well</span></em></div>
</div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">3 times is enemy action</em></u>: First, North Carolina Republicans vented their sore-loserness at a Democrat getting himself elected governor by stripping him of key powers they didn’t mind a Republican governor having. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Second, Wisconsin Republicans immediately moved to follow North Carolina’s example when a Democrat ousted GOP Gov. Scott Walker two years later.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Third, Michigan swiftly followed suit.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So where are those efforts now?</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">North Carolina</strong>, Republicans are prepared to deploy the last gasp of their veto-proof supermajority (they won’t have the required number of votes in the coming legislative session to override vetoes) to try, one last time, to <a href="https://www.wral.com/secrecy-provision-in-elections-board-bill-prompting-cooper-veto/18072490/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">revamp the state's election board</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, however, looks like he’s going to make life hard for the GOP.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">He’s slowed his veto roll and may delay rejecting the bill until after the legislature adjourns on Friday, which would force lawmakers to reconvene during after Christmas but before the new year to override it.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Many members have trips and other difficult-to-change plans during that time, making corralling the numbers required to override the veto a challenging undertaking.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Wisconsin</strong>, after a soon-to-be-unemployed Scott Walker signed into law several bills usurping his Democratic successor’s power, <a href="https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/amid-backlash-wisconsin-republicans-struggle-to-justify-lame-duck-laws/article_b4e73f22-4ebc-5366-8e7f-683e718b0d89.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Republicans can’t even agree on how to defend the GOP power-grab</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Some like to talk about the powers that they magnanimously did <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">not </em>take away from the incoming governor.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Others try to pivot to less-controversial aspects of the new laws.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And some just lie, like GOP Senate President Roger Roth did when he insisted on TV last weekend that “t<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">here will be more legislative oversight in a lot of areas, but no power was taken away from the governor or attorney general.”</span></span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Fun fact! Power was expressly taken away from both the governor and the attorney general.</span></em></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The power stolen by the GOP-controlled legislature from the incoming Democratic administration includes <span style="box-sizing: border-box;">curtailing the governor’s power to</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">guide economic development,</span></span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">halt litigation on the state’s behalf, and</span></span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">make administrative rules implementing new laws.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The new laws also limit the state attorney general’s power to defend legal challenges to state laws.</span></span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Meanwhile, in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Michigan</strong>, lawmakers are frantically trying to wrap up their lame duck session on Thursday, and some of the Republicans’ power-grabby bills may not make it to the outgoing GOP Gov. Rick Snyder’s desk.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Still on track, though, is a measure that would make <a href="https://www.bridgemi.com/public-sector/michigan-lame-duck-ballot-rules-may-tighten-campaign-finance-stays-sos" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">effectively gerrymander the signature-gathering process for citizen-initiated ballot measures</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Currently, these signatures can come from any voter anywhere in the state.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But bill House Republicans en route to Snyder’s desk requires that no more than 15 percent of the signatures come from any one of Michigan’s 14 congressional districts.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That’s not only a garbage requirement intended to make signature-gathering harder by preventing canvassers from racking up totals in accessible and densely populated urban areas, but it also effectively gerrymanders the ballot measure process by creating arbitrary caps based on Michigan's<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://images.dailykos.com/images/622045/original/Michigan_Congressional_Popular_Vote_2012-2018.png?1544746410" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">extremely GOP-skewing congressional map</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Already signed: Bills <a href="https://www.bridgemi.com/public-sector/snyder-signs-bills-weaken-michigan-minimum-wage-sick-leave-laws" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">gutting a minimum wage hike and paid sick leave</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;">2 more Republican defectors in Kansas</u></em>: Last week, the <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/12/13/1818768/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-The-12-Days-of-Session-Part-1-edition" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">7th Day of Session</a> was dedicated to a party-switching GOP senator in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Kansas</strong>.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This week, <a href="https://www.cjonline.com/news/20181219/kansas-sen-dinah-sykes-rep-stephanie-clayton-flip-from-republican-to-democrat" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">two more Republicans joined her in moving to the Democratic caucus</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">State Sen. Dinah Sykes and Rep. Stephanie Clayton are abandoning the Republican Party.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sykes feels she can “better serve [her] state and constituents as a member of the Democratic Party.”</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Clayton switched after hearing legislative leaders discuss abandoning a plan to boost public school funding, describing the strategy as “moves to support chaos in public policy.”</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After these party switches and Sen. Barbara Bollier’s flip last week, the Kansas Senate will be 28 R/11 D/1 I, and the House will be 84 R/41 D.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Kansas House Democratic Leader Jim Ward claims that <a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/kansas-house-minority-leader-3-4-more-possible-flips" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">three or four more Republicans may yet defect from their party</a> in the coming weeks.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">And the nation’s first majority-women legislature</em></u>: With the appointment of two women to fill open Democratic seats in the state Assembly, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Nevada</strong> has become <a href="https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/nevada-becomes-first-state-with-majority-female-legislature/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">the first state with a legislature made up of mostly women</a> (32 out of 63 total Assembly and Senate seats).</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Also, one of the newly appointed assemblywomen will be the only Asian-American Pacific Islander community member in the legislature.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Welp, there are your 12 days. <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Congrats!</em></span></div>
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cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-88885226511636097062018-10-29T14:41:00.001-04:002018-10-29T14:41:22.437-04:00Votebusters edition<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Once upon a midterm dreary, while I pundited, weak and weary</span></em></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Over many a dense and curious spreadsheet of election lore—</span></em></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While I analyzed, data mapping, suddenly I was handicapping</span></em></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Though my energy fast was sapping, sapping out of every pore</span></em></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Just 12 days, I muttered, surely this I can endure—</span></em></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Then the midterms are done for.</span></em></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Let’s red majorities dismember—it’s very nearly sweet November</span></em></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Seems just yesterday was September when through every poll we tore </span></em></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And the facts have all the seeming of chambers of which I’m dreaming</span></em></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And the majorities of which I’m scheming, Dems will win several more</span></em></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Could it be time for silver linings and Republican rule done for?</span></em></div>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Quoth the Fiddler, five or more!</span></em></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(...sorry.)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Happy (almost) Halloween, y’all!</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It’s really pretty handy how this holiday falls at this point in the election cycle.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Everyone’s already super freaked out over one thing or another—whether it’s <a href="https://www.metrotimes.com/news-hits/archives/2018/10/25/poll-michigan-democrats-could-be-losing-edge-over-republicans" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">polls narrowing</a> or <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/paloma/the-trailer/2018/10/02/the-trailer-democrats-are-breaking-fundraising-records-republicans-blame-outsiders/5bb37b851b326b7c8a8d17be/?utm_term=.d5bb571bb586" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">getting the crap kicked out of you in fundraising</a>, fear seems to be a feeling both sides of the aisle have in common right now.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But state politics isn't scared of you, me, or anything, and if you ignore it, it might tp your house.</span></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ua2k52n_Bvw" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">I Put A $pell On You</em></u></a>: Daily Kos has rolled out its final endorsements of the election cycle, and they’re <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/23/1806315/-Stop-GOP-voter-suppression-before-it-starts-by-supporting-these-women-running-for-state-legislatures" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">in 12 statehouse races across five legislative chambers</a>.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Kayser Enneking, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Florida</strong> SD-08</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Janet Cruz, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Florida</strong> SD-18</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Mari Manoogian, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Michigan</strong> HD-40</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Padma Kuppa, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Michigan</strong> HD-41</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Alberta Griffin, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Michigan</strong> HD-61</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Julie von Haefen, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">North Carolina</strong> HD-36</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Christy Clark, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">North Carolina</strong> HD-98</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Danielle Otten, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Pennsylvania</strong> HD-155</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Jennifer O’Mara, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Pennsylvania</strong> HD-165</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Kristin Seale, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Pennsylvania</strong> HD-168</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Kriss Marion, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Wisconsin</strong> SD-17</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Lee Snodgrass, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Wisconsin</strong> SD-19</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box;">
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As of this writing, the endorsements have already raised over $100,000 in just two days.</span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Even divided among 12 candidates, that’s nothing to sneeze at.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">You may or may not have noticed that each of these chambers is rated Lean or Likely R—making the money raised for these candidates a potential game-changer as Democrats fund extra field shifts or that last digital ad buy as they work to flip these chambers.</span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hundreds of state legislative seats are won (or lost, depending on your point of view) by 500 votes or fewer each cycle.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: #3c3736; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;">The return on investment in chronically underfunded statehouse campaigns is already ridiculously high, and a late cash infusion can make all the difference as Democrats work to eke out just a few more votes.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #3c3736;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;">And if you have any doubts about the value of those few extra votes … well, </span></span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/1/3/1729559/-Virginia-recount-judges-issue-garbage-ruling-defending-their-decision-to-strip-Democrat-of-victory" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; letter-spacing: 0.125px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">just ask Virginia’s Shelly Simonds</a><span style="color: #3c3736;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;">.</span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOnqjkJTMaA" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; letter-spacing: 0.125px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Thriller</em></u></a><span style="color: #3c3736;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;">: There’s a potential nailbiter of a race in </span></span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">Minnesota</strong><span style="color: #3c3736;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;"> that’s flown mostly under the radar this cycle, but it bears keeping a close eye on through election day.</span></span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While the Minnesota state Senate, as a chamber, isn’t up this year, one special election will determine which party controls it.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Currently, it’s tied 33-33, a circumstance created when Senate President Michelle Fischbach resigned to serve as lieutenant governor (a vacancy created when Gov. Mark Dayton appointed Lt. Gov. Tina Smith to fill Al Franken’s U.S. Senate seat).</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Senate District 13 <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11zssYNAiO30kRYT1zE_J1py6NwZ3O8ZsgxCmxbA4_-I/edit#gid=406679295" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">went for Trump 64-30</a>, and Republicans weren’t terribly concerned about keeping control of both the seat and the chamber this fall.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Recent reports indicate that may no longer be the case.</span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The race, which should be an easy hold for the GOP, is attracting bananas outside spending on both sides—<a href="https://www.sctimes.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/24/minnesota-senate-race-joe-perske-jeff-howe-complaint-money-negative-ads-finance/1749987002/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">to the tune of $240,000 as of this week</a>.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Now Democrat Joe Perske is accusing a GOP group of <a href="https://www.sctimes.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/24/minnesota-senate-race-joe-perske-jeff-howe-complaint-money-negative-ads-finance/1749987002/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">filing a frivolous campaign finance complaint</a> as a smear tactic.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">At issue? The fact that Perske is repurposing signs from an earlier campaign for Congress by cutting off or covering over the parts specifically referencing the U.S. House race, as well as an appearance on a radio show where Perske was features as the “Democrat of the Day” (17 minutes of airtime as an unreported in-kind donation).</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yeah, a radio hit and recycling aren’t exactly crimes of electoral turpitude, but whatever.</span></em></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The upshot? Republicans seem awfully spooked about losing a district they shouldn’t be losing a wink of sleep over.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cU4qbnNmxWA" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Ghostbeavers</em></u></a>: When you’re trying desperately to unseat an incumbent Democrat in the <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Maine</strong> Senate, who ya gonna call?</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A mail vendor with terrible design aesthetics and poor fact-checking skills, apparently.</span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Republican Jim LaBrecque, who’s challenging Sen. Geoff Gratwick in this Bangor-area seat that <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cm09kaInscvlrOog7qrnFFFBc4wD_Xe_VfAO78nXcLg/edit#gid=327606367" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">went for Clinton 49-43</a>, sent a … <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YmVacg1Xn6bXX-hCF-IMa2wegJhsH6ON/view?usp%3Dsharing" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">cluttered mailer</a> to nearly 19,000 voters that both advertised an upcoming appearance with outgoing GOP governor and <a href="http://tides.bangordailynews.com/2015/08/07/home/maine-state-senator-compares-lepage-to-southparks-eric-cartman/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">possible real-life grown-up Eric Cartman</a> Paul LePage (LePage’s office has not confirmed the appearance) and provides an itemized list of Gratwick’s supposed transgressions.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Apparently armed with Microsoft Word skillz and a little bit of ClipArt, LaBrecque decided to use every bit of real estate on this terrible mailer to attempt to impugn his opponent for past misdeeds.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The alleged “crimes” the Republican lays out are described misleadingly, to say the least—everything from going negative on a political opponent (as one often does when running for office) and a clerical error on a campaign finance report (for which Gratwick paid the fine) to introducing “emergency legislation” that may or may not have qualified as “emergencies” (something lawmakers do routinely).</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But the top-line issue on the mailer is Gratwick’s “criminal conduct” leading to his conviction of a “Class E crime.”</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Well, that’s a misdemeanor, Gratwick paid a fine, and his real crime was trying to save baby beavers.</span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The accusation stems from a well-publicized event in 2001, when <a href="https://archive.bangordailynews.com/2001/02/10/the-trappings-of-war/?_ga=2.123764233.223268420.1540493927-1802340422.1540493927" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Gratwick led the charge to save a family of beavers</a> that, to the delight of many in the area, had taken up residence in a local pond.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After improperly posting “No Trespassing” signs on property that’s technically open to the public, he removed—unlawfully, as it turned out—two traps set out to catch the beavers.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The trapper was, understandably, displeased at the loss of his traps.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Gratwick paid his $238, and everyone moved on with their lives.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #3c3736;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;">LaBrecque says </span></span><a href="http://bangordailynews.com/2018/10/25/politics/daily-brief/how-beavers-became-a-campaign-issue-in-a-bangor-area-maine-senate-race/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; letter-spacing: 0.125px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Gratwick’s actions show a “pattern of behavior</a><span style="color: #3c3736;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;">.”</span></span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Republican’s mailer, by the by, had improper “paid for by” disclosure language, and his campaign could be facing a fine as a result.<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"> Womp womp.</em></span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<span style="color: #3c3736; font-family: Open Sans;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><i>Read the rest of this week's edition <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/25/1806973/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Votebusters-edition">here</a>.</i></span></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box;">
<span style="color: #3c3736; font-family: Open Sans;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><i>Sign up to get This Week in Statehouse Action delivered hot and fresh to your inbox each week <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/campaigns/forms/dont-miss-a-single-statehouse-action-update">here</a>. </i></span></span></div>
cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-53173057630125627872018-10-16T18:45:00.004-04:002018-10-16T18:45:54.311-04:00Don't Hate The Rating, Hate The Game edition<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Psst.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hey, you.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yeah, you. Person who reads this collection of statehouse news and jokes of questionable quality each week.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It’s not exactly news that Election Day is right around the corner.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But you know that means, right?</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">PROGNOSTICATION TIME WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO GET PUMPED</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">First, let’s get one little thing out of the way first. I’m going to be talking about chamber majorities won/lost/kept, not legislative seats.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Because counting the number of state legislative seats won or lost by each party nationwide is a meaningless metric.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Winning more seats in a chamber is a good thing, but it only matters insofar as it gets you closer to a majority in that chamber.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But total number of seats across the country? Garbage. Anyone who tries to get you to care about that number is wasting your time.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And I value your time. Frankly, I’m shocked (but appreciative!) that you sliced a chunk of it out of your busy day to give to this.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Is one party holding a greater number of legislative seats than the other a general indicator of partisan health at the state level? Sure.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But it’s a lousy measure of real party power—especially when you take into account that, while Democrats hold somewhere around 1,000 fewer state legislative seats than Republicans across all the states, they only need to flip 17 seats from the GOP to win majority control of eight legislative chambers.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So, since chamber control is the only measure of power at the state legislative level that matters, here’s where we are now:</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Republicans hold majority control of 66 chambers (excluding Nebraska, which is technically nonpartisan), while Democrats control the other 32.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Of the 98 partisan chambers across the country, 87 are on the ballot this fall.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Of those, only 22 can be fairly regarded as competitive.</span></li>
</ul>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">...in my legitimately expert opinion, anyway.</span></em></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">First, some stage setting.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Midterms have been “historically” lousy elections for Democrats at the state legislative level.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But historically really should mean longer ago than the previous two midterms, IMO.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Because, yeah, it’s not news that Democrats lost majorities in a ton of chambers in 2010 and backslid even further in 2014 (partly as a consequence of the post-2010 redistricting that, thanks to that cycle’s statehouse results, was overwhelmingly controlled by Republicans).</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But the midterms during George W. Bush’s presidency weren’t bad for Democrats. Team Blue picked up majority control or ties in handful of chambers in <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/documents/statevote/legiscontrol_2002_2014.pdf" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">both 2002 and 2006</a>.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And now a Republican is president again. And not just any Republican—a political lightning rod with low approval ratings in key states.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But presidential approval isn’t the ballgame, not by a long shot. Rather, it’s the stage on which these elections play out.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And Democrats aren’t 100 percent on offense this cycle, either.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In particular, they’re defending skin-of-their-teeth majorities in the Connecticut Senate and the Delaware Senate, as well as a governing coalition in the Alaska House.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But generally this cycle? It’s much better to be a Democrat that a Republican.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tired of reading already? Okay. My money’s on <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Democrats picking up five chambers on Nov. 6</em>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Still with me?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Great, let’s do this.</span></div>
<div class="dk-editor-embed center-block" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;">
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<iframe class="dk-embed-google-sheet-style-b" frameborder="0" height="170" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QXT0VXnjFAJwtBuUADQ5qkrwfq3oS0JbFiPpSxz8rdI/pubhtml/sheet?headers=false&chrome=false&gid=1966967087&range=A1:E8" style="box-sizing: border-box; width: 660px;" width="530"></iframe></div>
</div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(If you’d like to see a full list of chambers that I consider “Safe” for the party that controls them, as well as those that aren’t up for election this year, <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QXT0VXnjFAJwtBuUADQ5qkrwfq3oS0JbFiPpSxz8rdI/edit?usp=sharing" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">please click here</a>.)</span></div>
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<u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tossup</span></em></u></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Arizona Senate</strong> (13D/17R): Democrats only need to flip two seats to tie the chamber, three to control it outright. Democrats have left just one seat uncontested (<a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z3rC18LqbA2P9eJPsid7ZVly1nbX2tVOU1P5Jkv8uL8/edit#gid=0" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">full stats on that for all chambers right here</a>), while Republicans have given five Democrats walks on Nov. 6. Latino turnout will likely determine whether this is the year Democrats finally take this white whale or if it’s yet another <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Oh Dang We Were So Close</em> year.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Connecticut Senate</strong> (18D/18R; effective Democratic control): Retirements on both sides and comparably successful recruitment between the parties help make this anyone’s game. Hopefully outgoing Gov. Dan Malloy’s unpopularity doesn’t poison the well too badly for Democrats. (Note: Ties are currently broken by the Democratic lieutenant governor, so if it remains tied, the outcome of this year’s open-seat race will loom large.)</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Iowa House</strong> (41D/58R): A bunch of GOP retirements and a truckload (25!) of uncontested Dem seats help put this chamber in play. Democratic fundraising and ground game are reportedly strong here, and Republicans have two years of crappy unified governance (<a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2017/02/08/here-5-key-changes-iowas-collective-bargaining-bill/97658446/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">gutting unions</a>, nearly <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2018/10/01/iowa-fetal-heartbeat-abortion-law-iowa-poll-kim-reynolds-fred-hubbell-pro-life-pro-choice/1409351002/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">banning abortion</a>, <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2018/05/30/gov-kim-reynolds-signs-largest-state-tax-cut-iowa-history/653149002/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">cutting taxes</a>to Kansas-like levels) to defend.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Minnesota House</strong> (56D/77R/1 vacancy): Local and national operatives with respected track records are almost hilariously bullish on Democratic prospects here, and Democrats at every other level of the ballot are polling quite strongly. There’s no reason to think this enthusiasm won’t translate down-ballot.</span></li>
</ul>
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<u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Lean D</span></em></u></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Alaska House</strong> (17D/21R/2I; effective Democratic control): A slew of Republican retirements and two years of relative success as a majority coalition give Democrats a better shot at holding control than how things appear on paper, so to speak. (Three Republicans currently caucus with the Democrats.)</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Colorado Senate </strong>(16D/18R/1I): Democrats are effectively one seat away from chamber control, but that doesn’t make this a gimme majority this year. Republicans want to keep this Senate as much as Democrats want to take it from them, and outside spending is high on both sides.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Delaware Senate</strong> (11D/10R): Democrats are probably fine here this year, but this chamber margin is a bit too close for comfort in this blue state, especially with three Dem retirements and comparable recruitment on both sides.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">New Hampshire House</strong> (167D/212R/2 other/19 vacant): This chamber is prone to wild swings in partisan composition each cycle, and Democrats have a leg up here in terms of recruitment and open seats.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Lean R</span></em></u></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Arizona House</strong> (25D/35R): Democrats out-recruited Republicans here this cycle, and with House districts identical to Senate districts (the former elect two representatives each), success in the upper chamber is likely to translate to the lower chamber.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Florida Senate</strong> (16D/22R/2 vacancies): Democrats are defending fewer seats here relative to Republicans (Florida Senate elections are staggered), and they won the recruiting game, too. If Democrats don’t flip this chamber on Nov. 6, watch for them to take it in 2020.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Michigan House</strong> (46D/63R/1vacancy): An uphill climb for sure, but term limits have forced a lot of incumbent Republicans out, resulting in a slew of open seats. Additionally, <a href="https://mirsnews.podbean.com/e/mirs-monday-april-25-2016/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">according to the guy who drew Michigan’s gerrymandered legislative maps</a>, the GOP’s House majority is dependent on the Republicans at the top of the ticket winning 47 percent of the vote statewide—something current polls indicate Team Red may struggle to do.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">New Hampshire</strong> <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Senate</strong> (10D/14R): Three seats might not sound like a lot, but in a chamber this small, it’s tough (as Democrats learned when they sought but failed to flip it in 2016). Don’t be shocked if the Democrats win this House and this chamber stays in Republican hands.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Wisconsin</strong> <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Senate</strong> (15D/18R): Again, flipping two seats looks easy on paper—until you see the GOP’s gerrymandered map. But Democrats are running strong challengers in two key districts, so I’m not writing this one off.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Also worth mentioning: <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">North Carolina</strong>.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Expect Democrats to break the supermajority in the House, and possibly in the Senate, too. Democrats have enjoyed a shrinking but <a href="https://www.nccivitas.org/polling/sept18statewide/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">consistent lead</a> in<a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3ce61747-3fa0-497c-8112-436784634eb4" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"> generic state legislative ballot polls</a>, and Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/approval_rating/governor/nc/governor_cooper_job_approval-6219.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">fairly popular</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
<span style="color: #3c3736; font-family: Open Sans;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><i>To read the rest of this post, click <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/11/1803649/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Hate-The-Rating-Not-The-Game-edition">here</a>.</i></span></span><div>
<span style="color: #3c3736; font-family: Open Sans;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><i>Sign up to have This Week in Statehouse Action delivered hot and fresh to your inbox each week <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/campaigns/forms/dont-miss-a-single-statehouse-action-update">here</a>.</i></span></span></div>
cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-70892246110876590502018-08-30T19:34:00.003-04:002018-08-30T19:34:51.136-04:00Lawmakers of Summer edition<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Cripes, y’all. Summer’s almost gone.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(Okay, no, <a href="https://www.almanac.com/content/first-day-seasons" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">not technically</a>, but amusement parks are about to close on weekdays and pools are shutting down after this weekend and we’re no longer supposed to wear white for some reason, so in the lay, non-astronomical sense, I think we’re all agreed that summer spiritually ends with Labor Day.)</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(Which is, like, here.)</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But before we all take off for the holiday that heralds the last hurrah of the season, let’s check in on what’s happening in the states. Because, while most legislatures aren’t in session in the summers, that doesn’t mean statehouse action takes a vacation.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZW0DfsCzfq4" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Summer Fights</em></u></a>: First, let’s pay a visit to <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">North Carolina</strong>.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Because, thanks to the GOP-controlled legislature and its never-ending series of power-grabs and general assaults on democracy, there’s ALWAYS something happening in North Carolina.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Two weeks ago <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/8/16/1788567/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Gone-Fishin-edition" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">in this space</a> (my vacation was lovely, thank you), I wrote about a court fight over the GOP’s super-brazen (even for them) attempt to change the rules in the state’s Supreme Court race mid-game, so to speak.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Two weeks was, like, forever ago, so let me catch you up:</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Last year, Republicans passed legislation specifically designed to impact the 2018 elections by allowing any candidate running for office to change his or her party affiliation right up to the time they officially file as a candidate.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Oops:</span></em><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Just before the filing deadline, a<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article214261469.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">third candidate got into the state Supreme Court race</a>, which had previously just had one Democrat—Anita Earls—and one Republican—Barbara Jackson—running.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That candidate—Raleigh attorney Chris Anglin—filed to run as a Republican, sparking GOP fears that he’d siphon votes away from Jackson, splitting the party’s vote and easing Earls’ path to the bench.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Until June 7 of this year, this fresh Republican face in the race was a registered Democrat.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The state Republican Party vowed to treat Anglin as “the enemy he is.” Both Anglin and state Democrats aver that no shenanigans are afoot here; rather, Anglin is just a concerned citizen who wanted to run as a “constitutional Republican.” (Yeah, I don’t know what that means either, but whatevs, cool, you do you.)</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">GOP lawmakers went further in their response to his candidacy: The state Senate majority leader filed a fun<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">ex post facto</em><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>bill this week that<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article215443760.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">would have prevented Anglin from being listed on the ballot as a Republican</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While Anglin’s not mentioned by name in the bill, it applies only to judicial elections, and it only allowed candidates to display their party affiliation on the ballot if they were a member of that party 90 days prior to filing to run.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The bill passed along party lines, of course.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And it was immediately challenged in court, of course.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A Wake County judge swiftly<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.wral.com/judge-issues-injunction-delays-ballot-printing-over-supreme-court-race/17766497/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">issued an injunction</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>to prevent the state from printing ballots unless the candidates are identified on them by their preferred party, and the court ultimately ruled in favor of Anglin appearing on the ballot as a candidate of his party of choice.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This week, the state Court of Appeals declined Republicans’ request to stay the lower court’s ruling.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And, for once, GOP lawmakers gave up.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On Wednesday, an attorney for the legislature notified parties to the case that <a href="https://pulse.ncpolicywatch.org/2018/08/29/anglin-edwards-will-officially-be-on-november-ballot-with-party-labels/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">Republicans wouldn’t be appealing the ruling further</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I mean, yeah. Republicans literally tried to change the rules mid-game.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfvbtbmJyoU" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Summer Pain</em></u></a>: Also in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">North Carolina</strong>, the fight over a series of tremendously impactful series of amendments to the state constitution continues.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="http://www.wfae.org/post/judges-pause-ballot-printing-consider-wording-proposed-amendments#stream/0" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">constitutional amendments at issue</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>include:</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Lowering the constitutional cap on the state income tax from 10 percent to 7 percent.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Giving<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/6/28/1776394/-North-Carolina-GOP-plots-breathtaking-two-step-gerrymander-the-judiciary-pack-the-Supreme-Court" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">the legislature complete control over the candidates the governor can choose from</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>to fill judicial vacancies.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Giving the legislature (read: Republicans) the ability to choose members of the State Board of Ethics and Elections enforcement, taking that power away from the governor and preventing the Democrat currently occupying the office from appointing a Democratic majority to the board.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Requiring voters to present a photo ID to cast ballots.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Two weeks ago, <a href="http://www.wfae.org/post/judges-pause-ballot-printing-consider-wording-proposed-amendments#stream/0" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">a court issued an injunction on printing ballots</a> (by now a familiar experience for the GOP) in response to a lawsuit disputing the deceptive wording Republican lawmakers are using to explain some constitutional amendments they want passed this fall.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The lawyer for the GOP-controlled legislature<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.wral.com/judges-skeptical-of-challenges-to-proposed-amendments/17771309/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">argued that lawmakers don’t have a constitutional duty to actually inform voters about the amendments on the ballot</a>, so whatever warm and fuzzy phrasing Republicans saw fit to present to the electorate was just fine.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yup, the Republicans’ lawyer basically argued that lawmakers have a right to mislead voters.</span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Never mind that the GOP is asking voters to make fundamental shift to the balance of power among branches of government, obstruct ballot box access, and dramatically undermine the state’s tax base, resulting in inevitable cuts to schools and other essential government duties.</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">NBD</em>.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Last week, a state court <a href="https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article216880225.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">blocked two of the proposed amendments</a> because of their deceptive wording.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Specifically, the one concerning stripping the governor’s power to appoint the elections board and giving it to the legislature, and the one giving the legislature control over who the governor can select to fill judicial vacancies.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The GOP-controlled legislature both immediately appealed and convened a special session to <a href="https://pulse.ncpolicywatch.org/2018/08/27/lawmakers-pass-new-constitutional-amendments-request-to-dismiss-appeal-of-old-ones/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">hastily rewrite those amendments</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Shockingly, they’re still misleading.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Okay, not shockingly.</span></em></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper amended his lawsuit against the amendments accordingly, and a state court <a href="https://pulse.ncpolicywatch.org/2018/08/30/hearing-set-for-governors-renewed-litigation-over-constitutional-amendments/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">is scheduled to hear the case Friday</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Fun fact! Ballot printing is supposed to begin Saturday.</span></em></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Read the rest of this week's edition <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/8/30/1792155/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Lawmakers-of-Summer-edition">here</a>.</em></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Sign up to get This Week in Statehouse Action delivered hot and fresh to your inbox each week <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/campaigns/forms/dont-miss-a-single-statehouse-action-update">here</a>.</em></div>
cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-25069486417944663972018-08-09T19:33:00.004-04:002018-08-09T19:33:37.674-04:00Doggo Days of Summer edition<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It’s just that time of year.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">August.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sweltering.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It feels like the dog days of summer are in full effect, but I may be a little bit behind on this one. Or I’m not, depending on where you are while reading this—astronomical dog days occur at different times, depending on things like latitude and the position of the stars relative to the Earth and such.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The term “dog days” originates in Greek and Roman literature and actually refers to <a href="https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/07/150710-dog-days-summer-sirius-star-astronomy-weather-language/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">the days when the dog star, Sirius, appears to rise just before the sun</a>. It’s a time those civilizations generally associated with catastrophe.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Which may be a fair assessment of GOP electoral prospects this fall. And it’s almost always a reasonable take on Republican antics in statehouses.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Let’s fetch some news.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smiMQcAbqkA" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Hair Of The Dog</em></u></a>: Kris Kobach’s fight to become the <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Kansas</strong> gubernatorial nominee got most of the headlines in Tuesday’s primaries, but interesting things were afoot down-ballot, too.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Six Republicans <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z3rC18LqbA2P9eJPsid7ZVly1nbX2tVOU1P5Jkv8uL8/edit#gid=1019178978" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">lost their state House primaries</a> this week, and at least <a href="https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article216293205.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">five of those losses were moderates who got bumped off by more conservative challengers</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Big freaking deal,</em> <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">it’s Kansas, after all</em>, right?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Wrong!</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The resurgence of conservative Republicans in the Kansas House presents a serious reversal of a pretty significant swing the other way in 2016, when not only did Democrats flip <a href="https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article216293205.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">13 seats</a> in November, but <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/08/kansas-republicans-rebuke-their-conservative-governor-brownback/494405/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">14 moderate Republicans</a> ousted conservative incumbents while <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/08/kansas-republicans-rebuke-their-conservative-governor-brownback/494405/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">seven more</a> won nominations for open seats in that year’s primary.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The power shift away from the conservative Republicans who’d controlled the legislature was so massive that the moderates <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/08/kansas-republicans-rebuke-their-conservative-governor-brownback/494405/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">forced the conservatives to share power in the House</a>, with a conservative Republican assuming the speakership and a moderate becoming majority leader.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The moderates joined with Democrats <a href="https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article154691724.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">to roll back then-Gov. Brownback’s disastrous tax cuts</a> in 2017.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It’s tough to predict what this shift back to right for Republicans means for legislative elections in November.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Will the contrast against the Brownback-esque policies that resulted in a disastrous budget chasm help Democrats flip even more seats?</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Or is the conservative faction of the House Republicans on its way back to legislative hegemony?</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(By the by, the state Senate isn’t up this year, and the Republicans there are just as divided as their House counterparts.)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">...</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-grLLLTza6k" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Wolves</em></u></a>: The judicial drama in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">West Virginia</strong> <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/7/12/1780002/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Justice-Beleaguered-edition" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">I wrote about a few weeks ago</a> has reared its head again—just in time for GOP lawmakers to capitalize on it for a state Supreme Court coup.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It all started last fall, when reports began to surface concerning <span style="box-sizing: border-box;">Supreme Court justices indulging in </span><a href="https://www.thecut.com/2018/06/epa-chief-scott-pruitt-spends-over-usd1-500-on-pens.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Trump cabinet-esque</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> spending on fancy furniture amid lavish renovations of their chambers (in the neighborhood of $700,000 for things like fancy couches, elegant flooring, and pricey rugs).</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">These ludicrously extravagant refurbs spurred the state’s legislative auditor to investigate the justices.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A series of audits revealed lots of other shady stuff, like <a href="https://www.wvgazettemail.com/news/wv-justice-loughry-has-state-owned-desk-removed-from-his/article_e8d3d5bf-4523-5fc3-a79b-801278cb5140.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">judges taking expensive furniture home with them</a>, improperly driving state vehicles for personal use, and <a href="http://wvmetronews.com/2018/06/24/wv-court-system-built-up-millions-in-surplus-spent-it-down-and-built-it-up-again/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">court system budget shenanigans</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In June, Justice Allen Loughry was<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="http://wvmetronews.com/2018/06/20/u-s-attorney-press-conference-to-address-supreme-court-issues/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">indicted on state and federal charges</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>(54 in all!) of fraud, witness tampering, making false statements, and more.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In early July, Justice Menis Ketchum announced his resignation.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Fun fact! Republicans made state Supreme Court races nonpartisan when they took control of the legislature in 2014.</span></em></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Before the corruption scandal broke, Democrats had an ostensible one-seat majority on the bench.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If impeachment proceedings had been concluded by Aug. 14, the open Supreme Court seats would have been on the ballot this November.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But why would the GOP-controlled legislature want that when foot-dragging would let the Republican governor just appoint the replacements himself?</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Just this past Wednesday, <a href="https://www.wvgazettemail.com/news/politics/wv-house-committee-approves-articles-of-impeachment-against-justices/article_f4795b83-ba20-5ac8-a267-aeb4b10060fa.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Republicans in the legislature finally got around to passing 14 articles of impeachment</a> against all four remaining justices.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The full House will convene to consider the impeachment articles this Monday.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So there’s just no way they wrap up by the Aug. 14 deadline.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If the justices are successfully impeached, four GOP appointees will be able to serve at least two years on the bench.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Just in case you think this is anything but a brazen Republican attempt to replace an entire branch of government through GOP appointments, consider this:</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A Democratic member of the House attempted to initiate impeachment proceedings back in February—which would have left plenty of time to resolve the matter and place judicial candidates on the ballot this fall.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">At the time, Republican leadership called the move “a political stunt.”</span></li>
</ul>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And why entertain timely steps to remove corrupt justices when you can slow your roll and execute a Supreme Court coup instead?</span></em></div>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Read the rest of this week's edition <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/8/9/1786865/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Doggo-Days-of-Summer-edition">here</a>.</em></div>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Sign up to get This Week in Statehouse Action delivered hot and fresh to your inbox each week <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/campaigns/forms/dont-miss-a-single-statehouse-action-update">here</a>.</em></div>
cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-38542833148004362762018-07-26T20:14:00.002-04:002018-07-26T20:14:33.574-04:00Laws of Future Passed edition<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With <a href="https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Heavy-Rain-Flooding-Northeast-Heat-Wave-West-Coast-488991401.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">monsoon-like conditions in part of the country and record-breaking heat</a> in others, weather manipulation strikes me as a pretty sweet superpower to have these days.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But we can’t all be <a href="https://www.marvel.com/characters/storm/in-comics" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Storm</a>, so while we’re stuck enduring the weather-hand we’ve been dealt, let’s take a gander at what’s going on around the country in non-climate-related news.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://static.comicvine.com/uploads/original/10/107222/5016919-exm003.jpg" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">To me, my statehouse action</a>!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://x-men.wikia.com/wiki/Domino" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;">DomiNOPE</u></em></a>: A few weeks ago <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/6/28/1776349/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Jurassic-Whirled-edition" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">in this space</a>, I wrote about GOP lawmakers in North Carolina pushing a constitutional amendment that would effectively allow Republicans to pack the state Supreme court.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To refresh your recollection: </span></div>
<br />
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As June drew to a close, the GOP-controlled legislature voted to place an amendment on the ballot this fall that would<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/6/28/1776394/-North-Carolina-GOP-plots-breathtaking-two-step-gerrymander-the-judiciary-pack-the-Supreme-Court" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">give the legislature control over the candidates the governor can choose from</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>if there’s a judicial vacancy.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sounds innocent enough, yes?</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Not so much.</span></em></div>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/6/25/1774621/-How-do-we-fight-back-against-gerrymandering-By-electing-progressive-state-supreme-courts" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Democrat Anita Earls</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>loses her race for the state Supreme Court this fall, the court will have a 4-3 Democratic majority.</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The GOP-controlled legislature can then simply vote with their veto-proof majorities to add two seats to the court.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Then the legislature’s new sham commission would be able to send Cooper a list with nothing but hardcore partisan Republican names to fill those new vacancies they just created, opening the door to a 5-4 GOP majority.</span></li>
</ul>
<em style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Fun fact: When one Democratic lawmaker called his GOP colleagues out for this court-packing scheme, not a single Republican bothered to deny it.</span></em><br />
<span style="color: #3c3736; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><i><br /></i></span></span>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Other constitutional amendments slated to appear on North Carolina ballots this fall include:</span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><ul>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Requiring voters to present a photo ID to cast ballots.</span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><ul>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Giving the legislature (read: Republicans) the ability to choose members of the State Board of Ethics and Elections enforcement, taking that power away from the governor and preventing the Democrat currently occupying the office from appointing a Democratic majority to the board.</span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Republicans also passed legislation specifically designed to impact the 2018 elections by allowing any candidate running for office to change his or her party affiliation right up to the time they officially file as a candidate.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><ul>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Democrats protested the move, saying it could lead to shenanigans.</span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And then North Carolina Republicans’ luck ran out.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><ul>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Just before the filing deadline, a <a href="https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article214261469.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">third candidate got into the state Supreme Court race</a>, which had previously just had one Democrat—Anita Earls—and one Republican—Barbara Jackson—running.</span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><ul>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That candidate—Raleigh attorney Chris Anglin—filed to run as a Republican, sparking GOP fears that he’d siphon votes away from Jackson, splitting the party’s vote and easing Earls’ path to the bench.</span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><ul>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Until June 7 of this year, this fresh Republican face in the race was a registered Democrat.</span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The state Republican Party has vowed to treat Anglin as “the enemy he is.” Both Anglin and state Democrats aver that no shenanigans are afoot here; rather, Anglin is just a concerned citizen who wanted to run as a “constitutional Republican” … whatever that means.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">GOP lawmakers went further in their response to his candidacy: The state Senate majority leader filed a fun <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">ex post facto</em> bill this week that <a href="https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article215443760.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">would prevent Anglin from being listed on the ballot as a Republican</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><ul>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While Anglin isn’t mentioned by name in the bill, it applies only to judicial elections, and it states:</span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span style="background-color: #f7f7f7; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">The party information listed by each of the following candidates’ names is shown only if the candidates’ party affiliation or unaffiliated status is the same as on their voter registration at the time they filed to run for office and 90 days prior to that filing.</span></ul>
</blockquote>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The bill passed along party lines, and, though Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is likely to veto it, Republicans’ veto-proof majorities are sure to overturn any attempt to block it.</span></li>
<ul>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When it becomes law, this measure is virtually certain to be challenged in the courts.</span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<br />
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I mean, changing the rules in the middle of an election?</span></em></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;"><div style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Even for North Carolina Republicans, who are already legendary for their shameless and breathtaking attacks on democracy in their state, this is … brazen.</span></em></div>
</ul>
<a href="http://x-men.wikia.com/wiki/Nightcrawler" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;">Skincrawler</u></em></a><span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">: Sacha Baron Cohen has convinced some lawmakers and prominent political figures to say and do some pretty damning things on camera for his new show, “Who Is America?”</span><br /><br />
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But while getting folks to say on camera that<span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"> </span><a href="http://www.vulture.com/2018/07/who-is-america-sacha-baron-cohen-gun-prank.html" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">they support giving guns to preschoolers via a “Kinderguardians” program</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">is both darkly funny and extraordinarily sad, that stunt manages to pale somewhat next to the “ridiculously ugly episode” perpetrated by Georgia Republican state Rep. Jason Spencer.</span></span></li>
<ul>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">SBC, disguised as an Israeli military expert, convinced the GOPer to say some seriously racist things about Chinese tourists, scream the n-word repeatedly, scream homophobic and racist slurs, and show his bare ass—all on camera (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4k4pMTsa1Kw&feature=youtu.be" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">watch this segment of his appearance, if you dare</a>).</span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: italic; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">Not-so-fun fact: Spencer resisted calls to resign last year </span><a href="https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-lawmaker-talk-ditching-confederate-statues-could-cause-democrat-missing/wI2hOiINAe2LLD59qEpNrJ/" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: italic; letter-spacing: 0.125px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">when he threatened a black former state lawmaker</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: italic; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: italic; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">advocating for the removal of Confederate statues by saying that “she won’t be met with torches but something a lot more definitive” and suggested that she would “go missing in the Okefenokee [swamp]” because of her stance.</span><br />
<span style="color: #3c3736; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><i><br /></i></span></span>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Spencer, who pushed legislation in 2016 <a href="https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/lawmaker-withdraw-anti-burqa-bill-after-wave-criticism/80151tILD8Qgg2N4QR6kdN/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">banning women from wearing burqas on public property</a>, claims he fell for Cohen’s stunt because the comedian “took advantage of [his] fears that I would be attacked by someone.”</span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After the “Who Is America?” segment aired, Spencer faced immediate calls to resign—despite the fact that <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/local/rep-jason-spencer-southeast-georgia-district-disgust-his-racist-words-antics/LplMrvTkZMqWbvtO9LMD7J/?icmp=np_inform_variation-test" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">he’d already lost his primary election</a> and would be out of the legislature come January, anyway.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><ul>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But Spencer had good reason to try to hang on.</span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><ul><ul>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By January, he would have hit the magic eight-year mark as a state lawmaker, which would have made him <a href="https://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/resigning-from-georgia-general-assembly-may-costly-for-spencer/jP7CbXXGNKFeCKuEENBY0L/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">eligible for taxpayer-subsidized health insurance for the rest of his life</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Oh late Tuesday night, however, the House speaker’s office announced that Spencer would be resigning his seat in the legislature, <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/breaking-lawmaker-who-used-racial-slurs-show-resigns/PZeFXPfA9xo98b62amubzN/?icmp=np_inform_variation-control" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">effective at the end of the month</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"></em></span></div>
<span style="color: #3c3736; font-family: Open Sans;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><i>Read the rest of this week's edition <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/7/26/1783681/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Law-of-Future-Passed-edition">here</a>.</i></span></span><div>
<span style="color: #3c3736; font-family: Open Sans;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><i>Sign up to get This Week in Statehouse Action delivered hot and fresh to your inbox each week <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/campaigns/forms/dont-miss-a-single-statehouse-action-update">here</a>.</i></span></span></div>
cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-21936885214687183452018-03-29T19:33:00.004-04:002018-03-29T19:33:43.263-04:00Bad Moon Rising edition<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The month of March is rapidly drawing to a close, and in some parts of the country, maybe it’s “going out like a lamb,” as the kids say.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But no matter where you are, March is definitely ending with a full moon. A blue moon, to be precise, and the second one this year.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Also, it’s the last blue moon (a second full moon within a single calendar month) we’ll see <a href="https://www.space.com/40134-blue-moon-2018-last-one-until-2020.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">until 2020</a> (on Halloween night, to be precise—<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">oooOOOooo spooky</em>!).</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It’s super fun to blame the full moon <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-the-moon-to-blame/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">for all kinds of things</a>, from exacerbated medical conditions and increased births to car accidents and lycanthropy.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But studies have shown that the notion that full moons produce these and other effects to be false and likely the product of good old-fashioned confirmation bias—when we focus on data points that confirm our beliefs and ignore those pesky facts that don’t fit.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUQiUFZ5RDw&list=RDzUQiUFZ5RDw" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">He Sees Trouble On The Way</a></u></em>: For all his myriad flaws as a governor and a politician, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Wisconsin</strong>’s Scott Walker can’t be considered guilty of such an unrealistic way of looking at the current state of politics. He identified the <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/edit#gid=0" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">consistent trend</a> of Democratic special election wins and over-performances in state legislative races this cycle and decided that maybe he didn’t so much want to hold any more special elections to fill vacant Republican seats.</span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Wisconsin judges<span> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/3/29/1752963/-Scott-Walker-finally-calls-special-elections-and-drops-plan-to-nullify-court-ruling" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" title="">shut that nonsense down for good this week</a> when they stymied a GOP plan to outlaw these elections altogether and forced Walker to finally call these specials to avoid violating a court order.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Some background:</span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When Walker<span> </span><a href="https://www.wpr.org/2-republican-state-lawmakers-resign-work-walker" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" title="">quietly declared</a>—in that week between Christmas and New Year’s when normal folks are less likely to pay attention to political news—he was going to leave two Republican seats empty for over a year, the special election trend line was obvious, and it indisputably favored Democrats.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the 70 Democrat-vs.-Republican special elections held (by that point) since Trump’s election, Democrats in 2017 were outperforming Clinton’s numbers by 10 percent, on average, and they were even outperforming Obama’s 2012 numbers by an average of 7 percent.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Democrats had flipped 12 seats from red to blue in statehouse specials in 2017, and Democrats had flipped another 19 seats in the Virginia and New Jersey general elections.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So yeah, it’s not hard to see why Walker didn’t want to hold these special elections.</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Losing seats sucks!</span></em></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Walker got even more scared when <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/1/16/1733363/-On-Wisconsin-Democrats-flip-first-red-to-blue-seat-of-2018-in-epic-Badger-State-upset" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">Democrat Patty Schachtner</a> flipped the historically and solidly Republican SD-10 in January (as demonstrated by his little <a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/wake-up-call-dems-score-big-upset-in-rural-wisconsin-triggering-gop-alarm" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Twitter freakout</a> right after the election). And it’s pretty easy to figure out why.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Both seats Walker refused to fill (SD-01 and AD-42) voted for Trump,<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LZ8fxG1VDbsgquN9i4jG11bt8z0c7O58Phkf4vTioCo/edit#gid=962573040" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">56-39 and 55-40</a>, respectively.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b2cYIIuotdzT1cPlHLdgfaNPAwME0cXEHtqh4N9svC8/edit#gid=0" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">in 2012</a>, Romney carried SD-01 only 52-47, and <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Obama</em> actually<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>won<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>AD-42 by a 51-48 margin.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For frame of reference, that SD-10 seat Democrats flipped in November? Trump won 55-38 there. </span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">These seats aren’t going to be easy pickups by any means, but they’re quite solidly within the realm of electoral possibility for Democrats this cycle.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Not being represented in your state capitol for over a year is <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">extremely lame</em>.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So a couple of voters teamed up with the well-moneyed and well-lawyered crew at the National Democratic Redistricting Committee and <a href="http://www.wisconsingazette.com/news/scott-walker-sued-for-refusing-to-allow-special-elections-for/article_2c30e936-1b47-11e8-a1bc-6b3904dc1790.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">sued to force Walker to hold special elections</a> to fill these seat and get these good Wisconsinites some representation.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Late last week, Walker-appointed Judge Josann Reynolds told the governor he was in violation of the very plain meaning of state law and ordered him to call the special elections by high noon on Thursday, March 29.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Well, we all know what Republicans do when a court rules against them.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">They cry foul or attack the judges or attempt to undermine the decision or the court itself or <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/21/1739266/-When-Republicans-don-t-get-their-way-their-solution-Eliminate-judges-and-the-rule-of-law" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">all of the above</a>.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In this case, Walker and his GOP cohorts in the state legislature called a special session, set to convene Tuesday, April 4, <a href="https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/2017/related/amendments/ab947/ssa1_ab947.pdf" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">to pass a bill</a> that would effectively nullify the court’s order and prevent special legislative elections from being held in even-numbered years ever again.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The whole scheme was a pretty obvious and egregious end-run around both democracy AND the rule of law.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And Wisconsinites knew it: Over the course of just three days, over 3,300 Wisconsin members of the Daily Kos community sent more than 6,500 letters to their own Assembly members and state Senators denouncing this move.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But Republicans had a timing problem.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Once the special elections were called, outlawing all even-year specials in the future wouldn’t matter—there’s no un-ringing the election bell, so to speak.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And the court’s ruling demanded Walker call those special elections Thursday, well ahead of the legislature’s special session to pass their bogus anti-democracy bill on Tuesday.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Walker asked the judge—whom Republicans publicly trashed after she ruled against them—to pretty please extend his deadline for calling the specials to next Thursday, April 6, so the legislature would have plenty of time to outlaw them.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Another judge, substituting for Reynolds, <a href="https://www.wpr.org/judge-rejects-walkers-request-delay-election-order" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">issued a pointed rebuke</a> as he refused the governor’s request.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Walker then appealed to a higher court, <a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/appeals-court-rejects-walker-bid-delay-deadline-special-elections" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">which issued a pointed rebuke</a> as it refused the governor's request.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Walker, likely fearing yet another pointed rebuke, decided against appealing the decision to the state Supreme Court and called the special elections a few hours in advance of Thursday’s deadline.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The special elections for Assembly District 42 and Senate District 1 will be held on June 12, with primaries on May 15.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Fun fact!</em> There’s already a Democrat running in SD-01! His name is <a href="https://www.calebfrostman.com/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Caleb Frostman</a>, and he enjoys hunting. Like, <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">a lot</em>.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But wait, there’s more good news on the Republicans-pissed-off-about-a-judicial-ruling-so-they-want-to-burn-it-all-down front!</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Twelve Republican lawmakers in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Pennsylvania</strong> <a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/opinion/editorials/house-leader-wisely-douses-fire-to-impeach-pa-supreme-court-justices-editorial-20180327.html?mobi=true" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">jumped on the impeachment bandwagon last week</a> and <a href="http://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/Legis/CSM/showMemoPublic.cfm?chamber=H&SPick=20170&cosponId=25163&mobile_choice=suppress" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">introduced resolutions</a> in the state House to impeach four of the five Democratic justices on the state Supreme Court—the same four justices who ruled the state’s congressional district map was an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander and required it be replaced with fairer lines.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This threat was quite real, too.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Republican need a simple majority to pass impeachment resolutions in the House, and they need two-thirds supermajority to actually impeach those justices in the Senate—both of which they have, thanks to their extremely gerrymandered state legislative maps.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But Pennsylvania’s House majority leader—who determines which bills are and aren’t heard in that chamber—<a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/columnists/john_baer/impeach-state-supreme-court-not-happening-but-watch-for-gop-payback-20180326.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">has effectively doused that fire for the time being</a>, asserting that, while he sure wasn’t a fan of the court’s gerrymandering decision, “<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">disagreement over the outcome of any particular case should not be grounds for impeachment.”</span></span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">You don't say!</span></em></span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"></em></span></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We’ll see what happens when the state House reconvenes on April 9, but <em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/chuck-grassley-deer-dead-meme-lives-on" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">assume GOP impeachment effort dead</a></em>—at least for now.</span></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><i>Read the rest of this week's edition <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/3/29/1752976/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Bad-Moon-Rising-edition">here</a>.</i></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><i>Sign up for </i>This Week in Statehouse Action<i> <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/campaigns/forms/dont-miss-a-single-statehouse-action-update">here</a>.</i></span></div>
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cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-84396116116675484952018-03-22T20:21:00.002-04:002018-03-22T20:21:41.320-04:00Spring, Sprang, Sprung edition<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Happy spring!</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">… she said as she made a small snowman somewhere in the middle of the Eastern Seaboard.</span></em></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Well, whether it seems like it or not, it’s definitely technically spring. Which is, like, a time for renewal or whatever.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But statehouse action is seasonless. Winter, spring, summer, or fall, all you have to do is call…</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">… out Republicans for doing Very Bad Things. Like a judge just did in Wisconsin.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;">Spring BREAKING</u></em>: A <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Wisconsin</strong> circuit court judge <a href="https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2018/03/22/eric-holder-lawsuit-against-gov-scott-walker-over-wisconsin-special-elections-hits-snag/448743002/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">has ordered Gov. Scott Walker to call special elections</a> to fill two vacant state legislative seats.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The seats became vacant in December 2017, when Walker appointed two Republican lawmakers to his administration.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Walker wanted to delay filling the seats until “special” elections could be held concurrent with general elections this November.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This plan would have left voters in these state Assembly and state Senate seats unrepresented for more than a year.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Fun fact! The judge who ordered Walker to hold special elections to fill the seats before November was <a href="http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/know-your-madisonian-josann-reynolds/article_f473f69a-0ba5-52a8-954f-a6e5f0ea7f87.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">appointed to the bench <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">by Walker himself</strong> in 2014</a>.</span></em></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Walker’s refusal to hold these special elections <a href="https://www.wpr.org/2-republican-state-lawmakers-resign-work-walker" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">predates an epic special election upset</a> in Wisconsin’s SD-10 in January, but Democrats had already flipped 34 state legislative seats from red to blue at that point in the cycle—a stark fact someone as politically adept as Walker was certainly aware of.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And if you’re worried about losing special elections, what better way to prevent that than not having them at all?</span></em></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Walker’s little <a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/wake-up-call-dems-score-big-upset-in-rural-wisconsin-triggering-gop-alarm" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Twitter freakout</a> in response to <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/1/16/1733363/-On-Wisconsin-Democrats-flip-first-red-to-blue-seat-of-2018-in-epic-Badger-State-upset" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">Democrat Patty Schachtner flipping this deeply and historically Republican Senate seat</a> further supports a sense of dread that extends beyond just one special election upset.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Calling this red-to-blue flip a “wake up call,” Walker gave voice to the extremely reasonable fear Republicans are feeling about <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/edit#gid=546409300" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Democrats’ down-ballot electoral success this cycle</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Okay, so we’re going to have special elections. Can Democrats flip these seats? </span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Both seats (SD-01 and AD-42) voted for Trump, <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LZ8fxG1VDbsgquN9i4jG11bt8z0c7O58Phkf4vTioCo/edit#gid=962573040" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">56-39 and 55-40</a>, respectively.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b2cYIIuotdzT1cPlHLdgfaNPAwME0cXEHtqh4N9svC8/edit#gid=0" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">in 2012</a>, Romney won SD-01 only 52-47, and Obama actually <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">won</em> AD-42 by a 51-48 margin.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For frame of reference, that SD-10 seat Democrats flipped in November? Trump won 55-38 there.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So yeah, no wonder Walker wasn’t eager to fill these seats in special elections.</span></em></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But Wisconsin isn’t the only GOP-led state that’s balking at special elections these days.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Florida</strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> Gov. Rick Scott is also <a href="http://floridapolitics.com/archives/253904-no-special-elections-legislative-vacancies-says-gov-scott" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">refusing to fill two vacant legislative seats</a>: state House District 33 and Senate District 16.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The open Senate seat alone leaves <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article190950114.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">more than half a million Floridians</a>without representation for almost a year.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And if you’re wondering why Scott might be afraid to hold those specials ... well, Trump won SD-16 by a <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11UnUqFQHoiVxdyNXh5M_UguFNwzpOUokYg5bDZWomOE/edit#gid=797202208" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">56-42 spread</a>—in other words, the kind of turf that's been in reach for Democrats this year. (Trump carried HD-33 by a much more comfortable <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C8mZNHVCGyy50_0zXmS21zbs1qJFtpFCCyz3GtuYjUs/edit#gid=392191227" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">69-29 margin</a>, but Scott can’t possibly justify holding a special for one seat and not the other.)</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While we’re talking about Republicans refusing to hold special elections for fear of losing them, let’s revisit <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Alabama</strong>, where Republicans are upping the anti-democracy ante by basically trying to do away with ALL THE SPECIAL ELECTIONS.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">First, Republicans pushed a measure that would eliminate special elections for U.S. Senate seats; a gubernatorial appointee would instead occupy the seat until the next general election.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This measure<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="http://www.al.com/news/mobile/index.ssf/2018/02/alabama_legislature_pitches_el.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">passed the state House along party lines</a>.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It’s<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="http://alisondb.legislature.state.al.us/Alison/SESSBillStatusResult.aspx?BILL=HB17&WIN_TYPE=BillResult" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">currently poised to pass out of</a> a Senate committee.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Republicans also want to eliminate most special elections to fill vacant state legislative seats.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If a vacancy occurs after the first two years of a lawmaker’s term, a<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2018/03/bill_to_cut_down_on_special_el.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">special election would not be called</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>to fill the seat. (<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Fun fact: state representatives and senators all serve four-year terms in Alabama.</em>)</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Instead, the governor would appoint someone to the post until the next general election.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This measure has passed both chambers of the legislature, but it still must be approved by a majority of the state’s voters in November as <a href="http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2018/03/bill_to_cut_down_on_special_el.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">an amendment to the state Constitution</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">GOP lawmakers claim that both proposals are aimed at saving money.</span></li>
</ul>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Funny how Alabama Republicans didn’t care about election costs until they got their butts handed to them in one of those special elections they suddenly want to do away with.</span></em></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;">ImPeachy Keen</u></em>: A month and a half or so ago, a Republican lawmaker had a <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">totally reasonable</em> response to the <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Pennsylvania</strong> Supreme Court ruling the GOP’s severely gerrymandered congressional maps unconstitutional: <em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a href="http://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/Legis/CSM/showMemoPublic.cfm?chamber=H&SPick=20170&cosponId=25163&mobile_choice=suppress" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">IMPEACH</a>!</em></span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But this wasn’t just some crazy backbencher screaming into the void; Rep. Cris Dush received <a href="https://twitter.com/srl/status/961276094786822146" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">tacit approval from GOP legislative leadership</a>, and a GOP members of the <a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/pennsylvania-gerrymandering-supreme-court-congressional-map-ryan-costello-20180220.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">U.S. House</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/RCPress_Sean/status/966336216315637761" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Senate voiced</a> their support.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And now that a new, fairer map is definitively in place for Pennsylvania’s congressional elections this fall, Republicans are moving to make good on this impeachment threat.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On Tuesday, Dush filed impeachment resolutions <a href="http://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/billinfo/billinfo.cfm?syear=2017&sind=0&body=H&type=R&bn=766" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">against</a> <a href="http://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/billinfo/billinfo.cfm?syear=2017&sind=0&body=H&type=R&bn=767" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">four</a> <a href="http://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/billinfo/billinfo.cfm?syear=2017&sind=0&body=H&type=R&bn=768" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">of the</a> <a href="http://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/billinfo/billinfo.cfm?syear=2017&sind=0&body=H&type=R&bn=769" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">five</a>Democratic state Supreme Court justices—the same four justices who ruled against the GOP-gerrymandered map and required a replacement map to be used starting this year.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pennsylvania-republicans-move-to-impeach-supreme-court-democrats-for-gerrymandering-ruling_us_5ab16875e4b0decad044dee0" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">dozen of Dush’s fellow Republicans</a> have also signed on, and <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/3/21/1750863/-Top-GOP-leaders-will-consider-bill-to-impeach-Pennsylvania-Supreme-Court-justices-over-redistricting" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">key GOP House leaders say they’ll consider</a> the impeachment resolutions.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On Thursday, the chief justice of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court—notably, one of the members <u style="box-sizing: border-box;">not</u> targeted for impeachment, and a Republican, to boot—took the unusual step of <a href="http://www.pacourts.us/assets/files/newsrelease-1/file-6963.pdf?cb=85b9ff" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">issuing a statement denouncing</a> the GOP’s move to impeach his fellow justices.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Chief Justice Thomas Saylor rightly called out the threats as retaliation for the justices’ “decision in a particular case” and as “an attack upon an independent judiciary.”</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"></em></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Of course, we know that “attacking an independent judiciary” is something <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/21/1739266/-When-Republicans-don-t-get-their-way-their-solution-Eliminate-judges-and-the-rule-of-law" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Republicans are super hot for</a>.</span></div>
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<i>Read the rest of this week's edition <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/3/22/1751165/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Spring-Sprang-Sprung-edition">here</a>.</i></div>
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cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-65730930181648638952018-03-01T18:30:00.001-05:002018-03-01T18:30:11.852-05:00Red Carpet Blues edition<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On Sunday, actors and celebrities and luminaries of all stripes will don their finest duds and traipse along a long scarlet rug before settling in to their seats at the Oscars. All that finery will then spend several hours scrunched up in theater seats as small golden statues are doled out to various “bests”—picture, actor, director, etc.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But with 40 legislatures in session this week, there’s plenty to recognize state lawmakers for in the meantime. Behold—the Staties!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Best Special</em></u>: This category had three contenders this week, with special elections to replace Republicans in a deep-red <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Kentucky</strong>House seat, a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/27/1745114/-Democrats-flip-39th-seat-from-red-to-blue-with-Connecticut-special-election-win" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Connecticut</strong> House seat</a> that had been held by the GOP for 44 years, and a <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/27/1745116/-Granite-State-of-Mind-With-New-Hampshire-House-win-Dems-flip-38th-seat-of-the-cycle" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">New Hampshire</strong> House seat</a>.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Democrats won two of these races, making them the 38th and 39th red-to-blue flips of the cycle.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Connecticut House win was impressive in that it ended decades of Republican control of House District 120, but the New Hampshire victory in House District Belknap-3 is definitely the winner in this category.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Democrat Phil Spagnuolo<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> won this race </span>54-46 percent—</span><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/edit#gid=2144047916" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">a 19-point swing</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>from Trump’s performance in this district in 2016.</span></span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Also, this was Democrats’ fifth pickup in the New Hampshire House this cycle.</span></span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;">Best Swan Song</u></em>: Speaking of special elections, the member of the Wisconsin Assembly who lost the Senate District 10 special election to Democrat Patty Schachtner in January (in Democrats’ 34th red-to-blue flip of the cycle) has decided not to run for reelection to the seat he currently holds.</span></span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In his retirement announcement, <a href="http://www.beloitdailynews.com/article/20180301/AP/303019934" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">he compared himself to a diaper full of human excrement</a>, for some reason:</span></span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Politicians, like diapers, should be changed often, and for the same reason.</span></span></div>
</blockquote>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Okay!</span></em></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Best Picture</em></u>: Okay, it’s the worst picture, actually, since <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Missouri </strong>Gov. Eric Greitens took it without the consent of his mistress and threatened to make the nude photo public if she failed to keep mum about their affair.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">… But it might qualify as Most Powerful Picture, in that this little photo has resulted in Greitens’ <a href="http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/investigation-of-greitens-continues-could-lead-to-other-charges-prosecutors/article_723b1872-a969-5f2c-969c-97d7fe0d0e66.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">indictment on a felony charge and arrest</a>.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Now members of his own party have <a href="http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/missouri-house-launches-impeachment-probe-of-greitens/article_35e5adfb-b423-50ce-ae6c-ed54fe6123e8.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">launched an investigation</a> that could lead to the Republican’s impeachment and removal from office.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On Monday, the GOP House speaker created a seven-member committee (five Republicans, two Democrats) to investigate the charges against Greitens.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Best Timing</em></u>: But <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Missouri</strong> Republicans can walk and chew gum at the same time, in that they can investigate their governor AND work to screw working families at the simultaneously.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The state’s new so-called “right to work” law is set to appear on the ballot this November, when voters will have the chance to repeal it.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But now GOP lawmakers want the “right to work” repeal measure <a href="http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/gop-threatening-to-move-right-to-work-vote-to-august/article_c30d438d-9072-537d-b1fa-14f2d74181ee.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">to appear on the ballot for the August primary instead</a>—an election that is sure to bring fewer voters to the polls than the general election.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The GOP sponsor of the bill to move the RTW repeal from November to August claims that she just wants to give voters a chance to weigh in as soon as possible.</span></li>
</ul>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sure.</span></em></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"></em></span></div>
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<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What Republicans really want to do is shrink the size of the electorate voting on this measure—a move that tends to reduce Democratic turnout and will likely result in fewer progressive voters showing up to cast ballots against this union-busting law.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="color: #3c3736; font-family: Open Sans;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><i><br /></i></span></span></div>
Read the rest of this week's edition <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/3/1/1745810/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Red-Carpet-Blues-edition">here</a>, or sign up to have this delivered hot and fresh to your inbox each week <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/campaigns/forms/dont-miss-a-single-statehouse-action-update">here</a>!</i></span></span>cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-31479213140406291492018-02-15T23:14:00.001-05:002018-02-15T23:14:08.366-05:00I Vote The Line edition<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">February’s just over halfway done, but it already feels longer than a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZPToXstS8M" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Folsom Prison</a>sentence.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Partly because so much <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt1Pwfnh5pc" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">hurt</a> keeps happening.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But also because 44 state legislatures are actively meeting this week.</span></div>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Texas, and Louisiana are so so chill right now</span></em></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHaVmFKnK7w" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;">Cry, Cry, Cry</u></em></a>: After every gun violence tragedy, conversation quickly and rightly turns to Congress’ shameful inaction on the issue.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: #3c3736; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;">But states have broad leeway to regulate (or not) firearms themselves, so it’s worth taking a peek at what’s been happening in legislatures since the mass shooting in Las Vegas last October and the 2016 shooting at the Pulse nightclub in Orlando and … well.</span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Democratic majorities in the <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Massachusetts</strong> House and Senate became <a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-bumpstock-ban-20180212-story.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">the first legislature to pass a ban on bump stocks</a>, the device that made the Las Vegas horror so deadly.</span></li>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Lawmakers in at least <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/2018/01/18/facing-congressional-inaction-states-move-to-ban-bump-stocks/?utm_term=.4d905e355481" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">15 other states</a> were moving measures to ban the devices in January, including <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">New Jersey</strong>, which swiftly passed a ban after their legislature convened last month. <a href="http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/arizona-legislators-look-to-ban-bump-stocks-pot-billboards-teen-weddings-and-more-9989729" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Arizona</strong></a>, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a href="https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/politics/Governor-Proposes-Ban-on-Bump-Stocks-in-Connecticut-468467783.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Connecticut</a>, <a href="https://coloradopolitics.com/bill-ban-bump-stocks/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Colorado</a>,</strong> and <strong style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;"><a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/washington-state-senate-oks-bump-stock-ban-in-rare-victory-for-gun-control-advocates/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Washington</a> </strong>are among those states, as is <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a href="http://www.omaha.com/news/legislature/bill-would-ban-bump-stocks-silencers-in-nebraska/article_66df974c-f015-11e7-a47d-bf2246e438c4.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">Nebraska</a>.</strong></span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Democratic majorities in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Oregon </strong>are moving to <a href="http://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/09/no-bump-stock-ban-bill-oregon-legislature-but-focus-gun-laws-elsewhere/325479002/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">close a key gun purchase loophole</a>.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But Republicans in <a href="http://nhpr.org/post/bump-stock-ban-fails-along-party-lines-nh-senate#stream/0" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">New Hampshire</strong></a> killed a bill banning bump stocks at the beginning of the month.</span></li>
</ul>
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<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">California</strong> and <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">New York</strong> already ban bump stocks.)</span></em></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Meanwhile, in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Nevada</strong> itself, it’s <a href="https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/state-law-prevents-las-vegas-others-from-banning-bump-stocks/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">against</em> state law</a> to ban bump stocks because of a measure that passed the legislature in 2015, back when Republicans controlled both chambers. (Though of course a future Democratic legislature could repeal this ban-ban.)</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Republicans in other states <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/353542-state-legislatures-rolled-back-gun-restrictions-this-year" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title=""><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">expanded</em> access to firearms and rolled back gun restrictions</a> over the course of the past year.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After the GOP took control of both chambers of the <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Iowa</strong> legislature in 2016, that state passed its own version of Florida’s infamous “stand your ground” law.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">New Hampshire</strong> and <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">North Dakota</strong> eliminated the requirement that gun owners obtain a permit to carry a concealed firearm.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Ohio</strong> loosened restrictions to allow concealed weapons in day care centers and some parts of airports.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Wyoming</strong> legalized carrying firearms in K-12 schools.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Georgia</strong> and <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Arkansas</strong> legalized it on college campuses.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Texas</strong> legislators legalized gun silencers.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9IfHDi-2EA" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">The Voter Comes Around</em></u></a>: So, not everything is terrible. <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">I promise. </em></span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This week saw a veritable special election bonanza, by which I mean that state legislative specials were held on Monday (two in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Minnesota</strong>) and Tuesday (one each in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Florida, Georgia</strong>, and <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Oklahoma</strong>). Four of these five elections were to fill vacant Republican seats.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On Monday, Democrats held on to state Senate district 23B in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Minnesota</strong>, despite the fact that Trump won the district (by a 46-45 margin) in 2016.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Republicans held on to their House seat (Trump won House District 23B 59-33).</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Both specials were to replace lawmakers forced to resign over sexual misconduct allegations, and a Democratic woman will be replacing the Senate harasser in Senate District 54.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Wouldn’t be mad if this happened every time #MeToo forces a man from office tbh</span></em></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On Tuesday, <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/13/1740971/-Florida-woman-wins-Democrats-36th-red-to-blue-flip-Florida-man-continues-to-live-in-infamy" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">Democrats flipped a vacant Republican seat in </a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/13/1740971/-Florida-woman-wins-Democrats-36th-red-to-blue-flip-Florida-man-continues-to-live-in-infamy" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Florida</a> </strong>when Margaret Good defeated Republican and congressional scion James Buchanan 52-45 percent in a district Trump carried in 2016 (by a 51-46 margin).</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The pickup was Democrats’ <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/edit#gid=546409300" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">36th red-to-blue state legislative flip</a> of the cycle—<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">and the 23rd by a woman!</em>—and it’s one that should absolutely spook the pants off of Republicans.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">House District 72 not only went for Trump, but it’s also<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_House_of_Representatives_District_72" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">historically Republican</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> down-ballot and has</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="http://www.tbo.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/02/13/margaret-good-vs-james-buchanan-what-you-need-to-know-about-tuesdays-house-district-72-special-election/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">a GOP voter registration advantage of around 13,000</a>.<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Buchanan benefitted from his the name recognition of his congressman father, Rep. Vern Buchanan.</span></span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">National Republicans took interest in the race, investing in it and even sending a key Trump campaign operative—none other than Corey Lewandowski—to help get out the vote.</span></span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Rep.-elect Good, meanwhile, had Joe Biden in her corner; <a href="http://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20180205/joe-biden-endorses-margaret-good-in-sarasota-state-house-race" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">he endorsed her</a>and recorded a robocall for her about a week before the election.</span></span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Republicans held on to the seats in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Oklahoma</strong> and <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Georgia</strong> on Tuesday (although the Democrat improved on 2016 presidential performance in the Oklahoma seat <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/edit#gid=2144047916" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">by 37 points</a>; comparable figures aren’t available for the Georgia seat because it was a four-way race).</span></span></li>
</ul>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Can’t get enough special elections? Good! Because they can’t get enough of you, either, probably.</span></em></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Coming up:</span></div>
<div style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"></em></span></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Saturday, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2018#February_17.2C_2018" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">February 17</a>:</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Louisiana</strong> House District 86, a four-way race to replace a Republican who’s <a href="http://www.nola.com/crime/index.ssf/2017/12/hammond_state_rep_chris_broadw.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">retiring to spend more time with his family</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="color: #3c3736; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">Tuesday, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2018#February_20.2C_2018" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">February 20</a>:</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Kentucky</strong> House District 49, which became vacant when the incumbent Republican, a local minister of a controversial church, <a href="https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2017/12/14/dan-johnson-suicide-special-election-kentucky-house/951353001/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">killed himself</a> after being accused of <a href="https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2017/12/12/dan-johnson-sexual-abuse-allegations-kentucky-legislator/942339001/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">sexually abusing a teenage member of his congregation</a>. His widow <a href="https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2017/12/14/rep-dan-johnsons-wife-rebecca-wants-run-his-house-seat/952304001/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">is running</a> for the seat, as is former Democratic state Rep. Linda Belcher.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Mississippi</strong> House District 60, which became vacant when Republican incumbent John Moore resigned in the face of multiple sexual harassment complaints. State legislative special elections in Mississippi are technically nonpartisan; four men are running to replace Moore.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<span style="color: #3c3736; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><i>Read the rest <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/15/1741679/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-I-Vote-The-Line-edition">here</a>.</i></span></span><div>
<span style="color: #3c3736; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><i>Sign up to h<a href="https://www.dailykos.com/campaigns/forms/dont-miss-a-single-statehouse-action-update">ave This Week In Statehouse Action delivered hot and fresh to your inbox each week here</a>.</i></span></span></div>
cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-81305475677696472252018-02-08T19:43:00.002-05:002018-02-08T19:43:16.756-05:00I Want To Know What Law Is edition<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
Roses are red</div>
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Violets are blue</div>
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Valentine’s Day is next week</div>
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So here’s an appropriately themed statehouse update for you</div>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">… sorry.</em></div>
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Love is in the air in state legislatures across the country, and by “love” I mean that 41 statehouses are currently in session, and they’re all just awash in sexy things like holding public hearings on bills and passing resolutions honoring local sports teams and voting on legislation.</div>
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Shhhhhhhhhh don’t judge my perception of sexy. Everyone’s <a href="http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xrx6we" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">got their own thing</a>.</div>
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But everyone thinks winning is hot. And Democrats are positively on fire.</div>
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zf2VYAtqRe0" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Burning Love</em></u></a>: This past Tuesday, Democrats flipped <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">yet another</em> state legislative seat from red to blue. (It’s Democrats 35th state legislative pickup of the cycle.)</div>
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<div class="story-intro story-content" style="box-sizing: border-box; word-wrap: break-word;">
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;">Four open Republican seats in<span> </span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold;">Missouri </strong>were in need of filling on Tuesday night, and Republicans held on to three of them—albeit by <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/edit#gid=2144047916" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">significantly smaller margins than Trump won in those seats in 2016</a>.</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;">But one of those four Republican open seats<span> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/6/1739314/-Show-Me-GOP-fear-Democrats-flip-deep-red-state-legislative-seat-in-Missouri-special-election" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">gave Democrat Mike Revis the win</a>on Tuesday with 52-48 percent, shifting 31 points from Trump’s win percentage in the district.</li>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Want to feel the heat of more special elections? Next week features five contests on back-to-back days—two seats in<span> </span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold;">Minnesota </strong>on<span> </span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2018#February_12.2C_2018" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Monday, Feb. 12</a>, and seats in<span> </span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold;">Florida, Oklahoma,</strong><span> </span>and<span> </span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold;">Georgia</strong><span> </span>on<span> </span><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2018#February_13.2C_2018" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Tuesday, Feb. 13</a>.</em></div>
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsP6EKAzEjI" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;">Draw Me Two Times</u></em></a>:<span> </span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold;">Pennsylvania</strong>Republicans did not take late January’s state Supreme Court ruling against their gerrymandered congressional maps well.</div>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">If you’re just now tuning in, yeah, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court found that the state’s outrageous Republican gerrymander<span> </span><a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legal-work/LWV_v_PA_Majority-Opinion.pdf" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">violated the state constitution’s guarantee of “free and equal” elections</a>. It was rad.</em></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;">Pennsylvania’s GOP lawmakers were, shall we say,<span> </span><a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/02/the-pennsylvania-gop-is-going-to-astounding-lengths-to-keep-on-gerrymandering.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">less than thrilled</a>. Statements decrying the order flew out of Republican legislative leaders’ offices. The state Senate President pro tempore<span> </span><a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/01/pennsylvania-gop-leader-defies-court-order-to-preserve-partisan-gerrymander.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">announced that he wouldn’t comply</a><span> </span>with the court’s order to draw a new congressional map.</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;">And then Republican Rep. Cris Dush<span> </span><a href="http://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/Legis/CSM/showMemoPublic.cfm?chamber=H&SPick=20170&cosponId=25163" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">proposed impeaching the Democratic justices</a><span> </span>on the bench, all of whom had ruled in a way that made him super mad.</li>
</ul>
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Histrionics? Sounds like it. But threats are only idle until they’re not, and Pennsylvania’s Republican lawmakers<span> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/7/1739285/-Pennsylvania-GOP-s-threat-to-impeach-Supreme-Court-is-real-and-it-s-how-they-plan-to-cling-to-power" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">have both the means and the motivation to make impeachment happen</a>.</div>
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Here’s how they could do it:</div>
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<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">Articles of judicial impeachment need only be passed by a majority in the state House, which Republicans have.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">And removal from the bench<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pennsylvania-supreme-court-impeachment_us_5a79cdb8e4b00f94fe95ade3" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">requires a two-thirds supermajority vote in the state Senate</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">—which Republicans also have.</span></li>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">Here’s why they could do it:</span></div>
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<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">Democrats have a 5-2 majority on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, and Republicans have almost zero chance of flipping the court back to a GOP majority before 2021.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">In 2021, a commission of two Republicans, two Democrats, and a fifth member agreed upon by the other four create new state House and Senate maps.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">If (when, let’s be real) the two Republicans and two Democrats fail to agree upon that fifth tie-breaking member, the state Supreme Court steps in to select the member</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">. A Democratic-majority Supreme Court is likely to select a tiebreaker who will reject any map that unfairly benefits Republicans.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">Additionally, legal challenges to the state House and Senate maps are normally handled by the state Supreme Court, placing another anti-GOP gerrymander trump card in Democrats’ hands.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box;">The Democratic majority on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court thusly constitutes an existential threat to Republicans’ lopsided majorities in the the state legislature.</span></div>
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<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">Fairer maps would help undo the massive majorities the GOP enjoys in both chambers:<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="http://www.stateside.com/states/governors-legislatures-partisan-splits/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">120 Republicans, 81 Democrats, and two vacancies in the state House; 34 Republicans and 16 Democrats in the Senate</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">—all despite the fact that<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/pennsylvania" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">Trump carried Pennsylvania by less than a single point</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>in 2016.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;">Pennsylvania Republicans finally are grumblingly complying with the court’s order to redraw the congressional maps, but they’re also <a href="https://twitter.com/srl/status/961276094786822146" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">not ruling out the possibility</a> of going after the Supreme Court justices who are making them do it.</li>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Stay tuned!</em></div>
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8raabzZNqw" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">When A Voter Loves A Woman (candidate)</em></u></a>:</div>
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...can’t give his vote to no one else</div>
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He’d trade the GOP</div>
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For the good thing he’s found</div>
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...</div>
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<i><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/8/1739781/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-I-Want-To-Know-What-Law-Is-edition">...read the full post here</a></i></div>
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cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-86032118498598418592018-02-05T22:35:00.006-05:002018-02-05T22:35:50.294-05:00Where No One Has Voted Before (Or Since) edition<i>[[Ed. note: Yes I've been terrible about cross-posting and keeping this space even remotely up to date so here's a Star Trek-themed one you're welcome]]</i><br />
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Democracy … The final frontier.</div>
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These are the voyages of the U.S.S. Republican Governor.</div>
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Its nine-month mission: To explore strange new bills.</div>
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To seek out new lows in democratic civilizations.</div>
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To boldly go where no governor has gone before!</div>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">… Okay, you’re a good sport to get through that. Ahead, warp factor seven.</em></div>
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<u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">he Un-Democratized Country</em></u>: I’ve been making some hay in this space of<span> </span><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/edit#gid=546409300" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" title="">all the state legislative elections Republicans keep losing</a>. Because they’re losing a lot of them, and a lot of supposedly safely red seats have flipped from red to blue over the past year.</div>
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<li style="box-sizing: border-box;">Well, Republicans have noticed this, too.<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;">Most notably,<span> </span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold;">Wisconsin</strong><span> </span>Gov. Scott Walker<span> </span><a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/wake-up-call-dems-score-big-upset-in-rural-wisconsin-triggering-gop-alarm" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" title="">kind of flipped out about it on Twitter</a><span> </span>after a safely and historically Republican state Senate seat there<span> </span><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/1/16/1733363/-On-Wisconsin-Democrats-flip-first-red-to-blue-seat-of-2018-in-epic-Badger-State-upset" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" title="">was won by a Democrat a couple of weeks ago</a>.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
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So, if you’re a Republican governor, what do you do when you can’t seem to win special elections?</div>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">You stop having them, of course!</em></div>
<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;">A Wisconsin state Assembly seat and a state Senate seat have been open since December (when the Republican incumbents bailed to take spots in Walker's administration), but<span> </span><a href="http://host.madison.com/ct/opinion/column/john_nichols/scott-walker-s-rejection-of-representative-democracy-is-shameful/article_d06dab57-9709-512d-9b72-f7288a765049.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" title="">Walker doesn’t want to call special elections to fill them any time soon</a>.<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;">Rather, he wants the hold the specials concurrent with the general elections in November, when he seems to think Republicans have a better chance of holding on. (The state Senate is currently 18 Republicans to 14 Democrats, with one vacancy).</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;">That means the Wisconsinites living in those districts could remain unrepresented in those chambers for<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span> </span></em><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">the better part of a year</em>—if not longer.Also, Walker’s<span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"> </span><a href="http://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/statutes/statutes/8.pdf" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; font-family: "Open Sans"; letter-spacing: 0.125px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">probably violating the state constitution</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">by refusing to call specials to fill vacant seats in a timely manner, but whatevs.</span><ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;">Walker may be taking cues from <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Alabama</strong> GOP lawmakers, who are reacting to a Democrat winning of one of the state’s U.S. Senate seats in December’s special election by trying to get rid of Senate special elections entirely.<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;">Last week, the GOP majority in the Alabama House<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/news/politics/southunionstreet/2018/01/23/alabama-house-votes-end-special-u-s-senate-elections/1060217001/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">voted to require Senate vacancies be filled by gubernatorial appointment</a>.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;">And will <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Florida</strong> Gov. Rick Scott follow suit? He’s currently dragging his feet on <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article190950114.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">scheduling a special election to fill a recent state Senate vacancy</a> there, too.<ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;">If he leaves the seat open, more than half a million Floridians will lack representation in the Senate for almost a year.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;">New Frontiers of Unconstitutionality</u></em>: Republicans in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Mississippi</strong> are trying to chart new star systems when it comes to infringing on women’s healthcare and right to obtain an abortion.</div>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Old and busted: <a href="https://rewire.news/legislative-tracker/law-topic/20-week-bans/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">20-week abortion bans</a>. </em>(Mississippi passed one in 2017.)</div>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">New hotness: 15-week abortion bans. </em></div>
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<li style="box-sizing: border-box;">One of these bans <a href="http://www.djournal.com/news/bill-could-make-mississippi-the-first-state-to-ban-abortions/article_108417be-1185-57fe-bff7-13a97cf1b0da.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">just passed out of a House committee</a> in the Magnolia State, but definitely keep an eye out for these garbage restrictions as they pop up in other red states. </li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<span style="color: #3c3736; font-family: Open Sans;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><i>You can read the rest <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/1/1737859/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Where-No-One-Has-Voted-Before-Or-Since-edition">here</a>. </i></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c3736; font-family: Open Sans;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><i>Sign up to have these delivered hot and fresh to your inbox each week <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/campaigns/forms/dont-miss-a-single-statehouse-action-update">here</a>. </i></span></span></div>
cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-60853859922556279072017-09-14T16:01:00.000-04:002017-09-14T16:01:22.548-04:00It Takes A District edition<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What happened?</span></em></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sure, we all know that's the title of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/clintons-account-of-how-she-was-shivved-in-the-2016-presidential-election/2017/09/11/f6740438-957f-11e7-89fa-bb822a46da5b_story.html?utm_term=.609df9ca98f9" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">Hillary Clinton’s new book</a> about the election. But it’s also what Republicans are saying this week after <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/13/1698085/-Republican-red-alert-Democratic-down-ballot-wins-spell-big-trouble-for-the-GOP" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">Democrats flipped two more solidly red seats</a> on Tuesday night.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Those two wins bring the seat flip score this cycle to Democrats 6, Republicans 0.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Wins feel good, and pickups feel better, but Democratic success since Trump’s election actually cuts a quite a bit deeper.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">Analysis of these special elections reveals that Democrats<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/edit#gid=0" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">are consistently outperforming the presidential elections results</a> <span style="box-sizing: border-box;">from both 2016 <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">and</em> 2012.</span></span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Democrats have beaten Hillary Clinton’s numbers in 28 of the 35 contested special elections this cycle, and</span></span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Democrats improved on Obama’s 2012 numbers in 25 of them.</span></span></li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Compared to Clinton’s numbers, Democrats are performing an average of 13 percent better, and they’re even performing 9 percent better than Obama. </span></span></div>
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<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vimZj8HW0Kg" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="">Don’t call it a comeback</a>… okay maybe call it a comeback.</span></em></div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Living History</em></u>: Lots of hand-wringing and column space has been invested in analyzing the regions of the country where the Democratic margin fell sharply from 2012 to 2016. <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Was this a one time thing? Is this a permanent partisan realignment? Will Democrats be able to recover? Did I leave the oven on?</em></span></span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ten of the special elections held so far this cycle have been in districts where the <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/14/1696496/-Democrats-have-bounced-back-in-districts-that-swung-hard-to-Trump-and-almost-everywhere-else-too" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">presidential margin shifted 10 or more points toward the Republican presidential candidate from 2012 to 2016</a>.</span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Briefly, they are <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Connecticut </strong>HD-115,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> Iowa </strong>SD-45,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> Iowa </strong>HD-89,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> Iowa </strong>HD-82,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> New Hampshire </strong>HD Grafton-9, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">New Hampshire </strong>HD Belknap-9,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Minnesota </strong>HD-32B,<strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"> New York </strong>AD-09, <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Oklahoma </strong>HD-28, and <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Missouri </strong>SD-28.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In all 10 of these districts, the margin has shifted back towards Democrats in the special.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But in eight of them, the margin has shifted past the 2012 presidential margin.</span></em></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Does this mean we can expect Democrats to win everything everywhere this cycle? Nah, that’s silly. But it <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">does</em> mean that Democrats not only aren’t stuck at 2016 performance levels, but they’re also often improving on Democratic presidential performance in 2012.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Too many words? Check out a neat visualization of this whole section <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/14/1696496/-Democrats-have-bounced-back-in-districts-that-swung-hard-to-Trump-and-almost-everywhere-else-too" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><br /></em></span></i></div>
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<i style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Read the rest of <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/14/1698522/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-It-Takes-A-District-edition">this week's Statehouse Action here</a>, or sign up to have it delivered to your inbox each week <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/campaigns/forms/dont-miss-a-single-statehouse-action-update" style="color: #828282;">here</a>! </span></i></div>
cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-36897059718308826152017-09-07T17:36:00.002-04:002017-09-07T17:36:16.165-04:00Budget Riders on the Storm edition<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The weather sucks and everything is terrible.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If it’s not a record-shattering hurricane, it’s <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/wildfires-rage-west-amid-scorching-temperatures/story?id=49677869" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">raging wildfires</a> or a <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/yellowstone-supervolcano-earthquake-swarm-largest-recorded-658318" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">swarm of earthquakes</a>right on top of our continent’s very own supervolcano.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIPan-rEQJA" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Who’ll Stop The Rain</em></u></a>? Republican majorities in the <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Wisconsin</strong> legislature are truly <a href="http://fox6now.com/2017/09/05/wisconsin-court-appeals-process-could-be-changed-for-foxconn/?utm_source=Atlas+Clips+-+Political&utm_campaign=16f165a97a-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_09_06&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_ee77c6e4bd-16f165a97a-313163277" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">desperate to woo a massive new Foxconn plant</a> to the state.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">How desperate are they? Glad you asked! </em>Not only are Republicans pushing a $3 billion incentive package to attract the Foxconn LCD screen plant, but they’re also waiving state environmental regulations and protections to speed the plant’s construction.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Oh, and they’re also <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">changing the state’s legal system</em> to accommodate the corporation. <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">NBD!</em></span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Under the incentive package that’s likely to be approved by the legislature later this month, any lawsuit involving Foxconn will skip the state appeals court and go directly to the conservative-controlled Wisconsin Supreme Court.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Fun fact! No other Wisconsin business is or has ever been granted this expedited (and unquestionably pro-corporate) process.</span></em></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3ZL8ZVWVz8" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;">Rock You Like A Hurricane</u></em></a>: Last week, the GOP-controlled <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">North Carolina</strong> legislature <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/8/24/1692751/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Losersayswhat-edition" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">approved some truly awful new state legislative maps</a> to comply with a court order striking down the previous, illegally racially gerrymandered ones. (The new maps are extreme partisan gerrymanders, arguably <a href="http://splinternews.com/north-carolinas-gop-tries-its-hardest-to-keep-people-ou-1798327943" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">creating just 15 competitive districts out of 170 total House and Senate seats</a> in the state.) They convened a special session to do so, and when they adjourned, they plotted to return in October. </span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In North Carolina, special sessions must be called for a specific purpose. Often the purpose is set forth in the adjournment resolution of the current session.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"></em></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the most recent adjournment resolution, North Carolina Republicans basically <a href="http://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/under-the-dome/article170542952.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">allowed themselves to consider any issue they dang well please</a>. But some of the more interesting items on their October agenda include:</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Redrawing (read: gerrymandering) the state’s judicial districts</em>, something Republicans first floated to understandable outrage <a href="https://www.indyweek.com/news/archives/2017/06/27/over-accusations-of-gerrymandering-republicans-introduce-bill-to-redraw-judicial-maps" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">last June</a>. A gerrymandered judicial district map would effectively allow the legislature to stack the state’s court system with Republican judges.</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">Impeachment proceedings</em><span style="color: #3c3736;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;">. Back in June, a GOP lawmaker launched impeachment proceedings against Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marhsall, who, by the way, </span></span><em style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;">has done nothing wrong</em><span style="color: #3c3736;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.125px;">.</span></span></span><ul style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Republican Rep. Chris Millis began laying the groundwork for impeachment charges back<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span><a href="http://www.nsjonline.com/article/2017/03/lawmaker-calls-for-n-c-secretary-of-state-to-resign-or-risk-impeachment" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">in February</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>when he requested information on whether Marshall was illegally allowing non-citizens to become notaries public. (<a href="http://www.charlotteobserver.com/opinion/editorials/article158796849.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">She wasn’t</a>.) In March, Millis demanded that Marshall resign. (<a href="http://amp.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article158707014.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">She didn’t</a>.)</span></li>
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Then, despite the fact than none of his inquiries or investigations turned up evidence that Marshall did anything improper or illegal, Millis pushed his GOP toward impeachment proceedings anyway.</span></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<i style="background-color: white; color: #3c3736; letter-spacing: 0.125px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Read the rest of <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/7/1696741/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Budget-Riders-on-the-Storm-edition">this week's Statehouse Action here</a>, or sign up to have it delivered to your inbox each week <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/campaigns/forms/dont-miss-a-single-statehouse-action-update" style="color: #828282; text-decoration-line: none;">here</a>! </span></i>cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-26244042851298373902017-08-31T16:07:00.002-04:002017-08-31T16:07:13.059-04:00I Hurrican't Even edition<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The disaster in <strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Texas</strong> is on all our minds right now—and hopefully will be for some time, frankly. The crisis won’t be over when the floodwaters recede. Folks will be working to rebuild their homes and lives for many months, even years, to come. </span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(Looking to help out? <a href="https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dkharvey?refcode=20170831fstwisa" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Check out this list of great charities</a>! Anything you can give makes a difference.)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But statehouse action pauses for no crisis, so here’s a look at what’s happening around the country that’s not hurricane-related but is still plenty, um, dark and stormy.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/8/31/1694683/-Fear-and-loathing-on-the-campaign-trail-17-Ed-Gillespie-s-getting-desperate" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Fear and loathing </a></em></u><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/8/31/1694683/-Fear-and-loathing-on-the-campaign-trail-17-Ed-Gillespie-s-getting-desperate" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing: border-box;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">in the Commonwealth</em></u></a>: Fear’s a bad look on any candidate, and Ed Gillespie is wearing it especially poorly.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Virginia</strong>’s Republican gubernatorial nominee couldn’t help but have been spooked by his own flaccid primary performance against crazypants Confederate apologist Corey Stewart—not to mention his own party’s overall abysmal turnout, especially relative to Democratic primary numbers (about 350,000 vs. 540,000 voters, respectively).</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Heck, in winning the GOP nomination, Gillespie earned almost 80,000 fewer votes than the guy who <em style="box-sizing: border-box;">lost</em> the Democratic primary.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Gillespie had significant ground to make up post-primary, but he really hasn’t made any headway since June 13.</span></div>
<ul style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 0px;">
<li style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;">He continues to<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/governor/va/virginia_governor_gillespie_vs_northam-6197.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">trail Democrat Ralph Northam in polls</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>as Virginia’s election season is about to kick into post-Labor Day high gear.<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-approval-rating-every-state-gallup-2017-7" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Trump’s dismally low approval ratings</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span>in Virginia and<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </span></span><a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/approval_rating/governor/va/governor_mcauliffe_job_approval-4281.html" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 107, 61) !important; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s consistently solid numbers</a> <span style="box-sizing: border-box;">are additional anchors dragging on Gillespie’s campaign.</span></span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When the going gets tough, Gillespie gets … scared and desperate, apparently. </span></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3c3736; font-family: "Open Sans"; letter-spacing: 0.125px; margin-bottom: 10px;">
<span style="box-sizing: border-box;"><i>Read the rest of <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/8/31/1694937/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-I-Hurrican-t-Even-edition">this week's Statehouse Action here</a>, or sign up to have it delivered to your inbox each week <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/campaigns/forms/dont-miss-a-single-statehouse-action-update">here</a>! </i></span></div>
cfiddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05117944261842546242noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4948061240572321354.post-33075662303307245402017-08-28T20:12:00.001-04:002017-08-28T20:12:58.424-04:00New Home Who Dis editionSo, it's been a while.<br />
<br />
But actually it hasn't.<br />
<br />
You see, I've been writing This Week in Statehouse Action consistently for the past couple of months (gasp, I know, regular updates, how novel).<br />
<br />
But my posts have a new home now. I'm publishing This Week in Statehouse Action under a new aegis: Daily Kos. (Fancy!)<br />
<br />
I'll try to cross-post parts of them here, but the easiest way to make sure you don't miss any of the statehouse hotness is to <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/campaigns/forms/dont-miss-a-single-statehouse-action-update">sign up here</a> to have them delivered hot and fresh to your inbox each Thursday afternoon.<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, here are the ones you might have missed if you just visited this page every couple of weeks and stared forlornly at the same outdated post.<br />
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<span style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #b45f06; cursor: pointer; font-family: "Open Sans Condensed"; font-size: large; letter-spacing: 0.125px; outline-offset: -2px; outline: none !important;"><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/8/24/1692751/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Losersayswhat-edition" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; outline-offset: -2px; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none;">This Week in Statehouse Action: Losersayswhat edition</a></span><br />
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<span style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #b45f06; cursor: pointer; font-family: "Open Sans Condensed"; font-size: large; letter-spacing: 0.125px; outline-offset: -2px; outline: none !important;"><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/8/17/1690334/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Racist-Is-As-Racist-Does-edition" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; outline-offset: -2px; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none;">This Week in Statehouse Action: Racist is as racist does edition</a></span><br />
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<span style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #b45f06; cursor: pointer; font-family: "Open Sans Condensed"; font-size: large; letter-spacing: 0.125px; outline-offset: -2px; outline: none !important;"><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/8/10/1688302/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-How-I-Learned-To-Stop-Legislating-And-Love-The-Bomb-edition" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; outline-offset: -2px; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none;">This Week in Statehouse Action: How I learned to stop legislating and love the bomb edition</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/8/3/1686361/-This-Week-in-Statehouse-Action-Lawmaker-Lawmaker-Make-Me-A-Match-edition">This Week in Statehouse Action: Lawmaker, lawmaker, make me a match edition</a></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/7/27/1684266/-This-Week-In-Statehouse-Action-Bills-and-Laws-Excellent-Adventures-edition"><br /></a></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/7/27/1684266/-This-Week-In-Statehouse-Action-Bills-and-Laws-Excellent-Adventures-edition">This Week In Statehouse Action: Bills' and Laws' Excellent Adventures edition</a></span><br />
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<span style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #b45f06; cursor: pointer; font-family: "Open Sans Condensed"; font-size: large; letter-spacing: 0.125px; outline-offset: -2px; outline: none !important;"><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/7/20/1682128/-This-Week-In-Statehouse-Action-Enter-The-Commonwealth-34-Districts-edition" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; outline-offset: -2px; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none;">This Week In Statehouse Action: Enter The Commonwealth (34 Districts) edition</a></span><br />
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<span style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #b45f06; cursor: pointer; font-family: "Open Sans Condensed"; font-size: large; letter-spacing: 0.125px; outline-offset: -2px; outline: none !important;"><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/7/13/1680050/-This-Week-In-Statehouse-Action-I-Can-See-Russia-From-My-Statehouse-edition" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; outline-offset: -2px; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none;">This Week In Statehouse Action: I can see Russia from my statehouse edition</a></span><br />
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<span style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #b45f06; cursor: pointer; font-family: "Open Sans Condensed"; font-size: large; letter-spacing: 0.125px; outline-offset: -2px; outline: none !important;"><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/7/6/1675744/-This-Week-In-Statehouse-Action-Beach-Weak-edition" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; outline-offset: -2px; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none;">This Week in Statehouse Action: Beach Weak edition</a></span><br />
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<span style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #b45f06; cursor: pointer; font-family: "Open Sans Condensed"; font-size: large; letter-spacing: 0.125px; outline-offset: -2px; outline: none !important;"><a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/6/29/1676210/-This-Week-In-Statehouse-Action-Legisocalypse-Now-edition" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; cursor: pointer; outline-offset: -2px; outline: none !important; text-decoration-line: none;">This Week in Statehouse Action: Legisocalypse Now edition</a></span><br />
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